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NFL betting: Bills-Dolphins line moves after Tua ruled out

The dreaded news Dolphins fans were hoping not to hear has arrived: Tua Tagovailoa is officially ruled out for Miami's wild-card game against the Buffalo Bills. The quarterback has yet to clear concussion protocol after suffering his second official concussion of the season in a Week 16 loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Line on the move

Miami was a 9.5-point road dog on BetMGM before the news broke. Minutes after it was announced that the Dolphins expect seventh-round rookie QB Skylar Thompson to draw the start, the spread ballooned to 13 points.

Mike McDaniel's team is 1-4 this season in games where Tagovailoa didn't play at least 40% of snaps. Thompson bested Joe Flacco and the New York Jets for an 11-6 win in the final game of the regular season, but has been less than impressive when he's taken the field this year.

Among the 52 quarterbacks who played at least 100 snaps in 2022, Thompson ranks 50th in EPA per play and success rate. He's completed just 57.1% of his pass attempts and has thrown three interceptions to go along with his lone touchdown toss.

Tagovailoa was the QB under center for each of Miami's divisional games versus the Bills this year. Both were wildly competitive contests. The Dolphins won by two points at home in Week 3 and lost on a last-second field goal in Buffalo in Week 15.

Compounding the Tagovailoa loss is the fact that the Dolphins will also be without star left tackle Terron Armstead, who's dealing with multiple injuries.

As for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, McDaniel said, "He's working to prepare himself to be capable on Sunday" and added that, "he can't afford any setbacks."

The Bills are -800 on the moneyline, implying an 88.9% chance of defeating Miami.

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 25: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins takes the field prior to a game against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 25: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins takes the field prior to a game against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference and rbsdm.com.