With four bad quarters, Tom Brady's once enormous NFL MVP lead is all but gone, at least if you follow the betting odds.
Aaron Rodgers was +550 odds at BetMGM to win MVP last week, meaning a bettor could win $550 on a $100 bet. Then Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were shut out by the New Orleans Saints, Rodgers had another strong game in a win, and you won't be able to find those odds on Rodgers anymore.
Brady is the favorite to win NFL MVP, but barely. He is +135 to win it, and Rodgers is +165. It's practically a coin flip with three weeks to go.
Tom Brady loses grip on NFL MVP
Brady was the -150 favorite last week at BetMGM. Rodgers was the only player in shouting distance, and that's still the case.
Patrick Mahomes moved up to third place in the odds. He's +1100. In a fair and just world all players would have a shot to win MVP, but we know it's a quarterback award. That's why Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor's odds of +1200 are nice, but we all know it would take a perfect storm for him to win.
Practically speaking we're down to two players for MVP. And Brady has gone from a lock to perhaps being in some trouble.
Buccaneers top receiver Chris Godwin is likely to miss the rest of the season due to a knee injury. Mike Evans left Sunday night's game with a hamstring injury and the Buccaneers won't rush him back. Leonard Fournette suffered an injury too. Brady suffered the first home shutout loss of his career.
We saw Brady struggle without his top playmakers on Sunday night. That's understandable. But it's not like voters are going to give him a pass for four weeks. It's possible the Bucs offense isn't that explosive the rest of the way. That would open the door for Rodgers.
Aaron Rodgers has been hot
Rodgers' Green Bay Packers have the best record in football and based on remaining schedules, it's hard to imagine they won't be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Rodgers won MVP last season and could repeat. He has 30 touchdowns and four interceptions. Over Green Bay's last four games he has 13 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 127.7 passer rating. MVP often comes down to who finished the strongest, and after Sunday night it feels like Rodgers and Brady are going in opposite directions.
There have been many twists and turns with the MVP race, like the NFL season as a whole. One really bad night on national television might have cost Brady a shot at a historic MVP.