NFL against the spread picks: After beating the Bills, can the Titans beat the Chiefs too?

Normally, the Tennessee Titans would be a candidate for a letdown.

They just won an exciting, eventful Monday night game over the Buffalo Bills. The Bills were everyone's hot team after beating the Kansas City Chiefs, and they had a bit of a letdown themselves. They lost as favorites when the Titans stopped a late quarterback sneak on fourth-and-inches.

However, nobody will let down when the Kansas City Chiefs come to town.

The Titans get to face the Chiefs after the Bills in a brutal bit of scheduling by the NFL. But at least both games are home, and Tennessee has one win in the bag already. The Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites at BetMGM.

Here's where we need to talk about the Chiefs' issues against the spread that date back to last Nov. 1. They did cover last week against the Washington Football Team, but WFT isn't in Tennessee's class. They don't have Derrick Henry either. The Chiefs are 3-13-1 over their last 17 games against the spread. A defense that has struggled this season will have a tough time shutting down Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown.

The Titans won't be intimidated by the Chiefs. They beat the Bills, who are arguably better than Kansas City. And while it happened a while ago, the Titans did beat the Chiefs 35-32 the last time Kansas City played at Tennessee in 2019. The Titans might be flawed in a few ways, but they're still a team that should win the AFC South. They're not incapable.

Can Tennessee pull off a second straight key AFC upset? Maybe. Either way, getting 5.5 points with the Titans seems like the right way to go.

Here are the against-the-spread picks for Week 7, with odds from BetMGM:

Broncos (+2) over Browns

I don't know how you could take the Browns given their injury list.

Washington (+9.5) over Packers

WFT is the only NFL team with five ATS losses; they're 1-5 against the number. The Packers have covered five games in a row. Trends like this don't continue, and it seems oddsmakers have boosted this line a couple points. It's not fun to back WFT with how poorly they're playing, but let's do it anyway.

Falcons (-2.5) over Dolphins

I've changed my mind on this one since taping the weekly betting rundown on the Yahoo Fantasy Football Podcast with Scott Pianowski. A couple days ago I leaned to the Dolphins' side. While I don't trust either team, the Dolphins should be weary after playing in London last week. Usually teams get a bye after London unless they request a later bye, which is apparently what Miami did. If you asked now, in the middle of a five-game losing streak, the Dolphins would likely take the week off.

Patriots (-7) over Jets

In Week 2 these teams played and it was a 25-6 Patriots win. What has changed since then? If anything the Patriots know this could be last call for their season. Lose this one and their door to being in a wild-card race will practically close.

Panthers (-3) over Giants

The Panthers haven't played well lately, but I think Carolina can be a good team. I don't believe the Giants are good in any way. I know there's not a ton of respect for the Panthers in the betting market, but giving only a field goal seems too low.

Bengals (+6.5) over Ravens

The Ravens might have announced to everyone last Sunday, in a blowout win of the Chargers, they're ready to be an elite team this season. It's also fair to wonder if that was a bit of a one-off. Before last Sunday, the Ravens were winning a lot of close games, some against bad teams. The Bengals are capable of moving the ball. It seems like too many points.

Raiders (-3) over Eagles

I'm worried about a Raiders letdown. There's often an emotional bump when a team deals with a key loss, and the Raiders were very sharp last Sunday. Will that wear off, another week removed from Jon Gruden's resignation? Perhaps. Still, maybe it's possible the Raiders aren't a bad team.

Rams (-15.5) over Lions

I don't love laying this many points, but maybe the Rams can cover. I wonder if Matthew Stafford wants to show up the Lions and Sean McVay wants to show up Jared Goff. Maybe there's no hard feelings, but even if that's the case the Lions are going to have a hard time keeping up.

Texans (+17) over Cardinals

There's no real reason to back the Texans, other than it'll be very hard for the Cardinals to be fully engaged for this one. They know they're going to win, we know they're going to win, and maybe they win by 14 instead of more than 17.

Bears (+12.5) over Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is just 2-4 against the spread this season. That speaks to the tax you have to pay to bet the defending champs. The Bears aren't a terrible team. Don't forget, they beat the Buccaneers last season. That was the game in which Tom Brady forgot what down it was. I don't know that the matchup is great, considering the Bears don't want Justin Fields throwing more than 20 times and the Bucs give up nothing on the ground, but it seems like way too many points.

Colts (+4) over 49ers

These are two teams I liked in the offseason that have been a bit disappointing. The Colts seem to be turning a corner. That's enough for me to grab the points in what should have been a better Sunday night matchup.

Seahawks (+4.5) over Saints

Oh, hey, it's Geno Smith in prime time for the third straight week. I have very little faith in Smith or the Seahawks, but it's still too many points. The Saints are a team that should play plenty of close games, and hopefully this is one.

Last week: 6-8

Season to date: 50-43-1