NBA betting, odds: Where to find value after first-round playoff upsets

Mark Drumheller
·Betting analyst
Updated ·4-min read

It didn't take long for the NBA postseason to get interesting. On Saturday afternoon, the playoffs opened with consecutive blowouts by Philadelphia and Boston. I cashed a moneyline parlay with the two favorites at -160 odds and wondered whether my cautious approach was too conservative. After all, both teams covered as big favorites, so single bets would have doubled my payout without risking the -160. However, there are enough bad bets that don't get to the window to remind me not to spend too much time playing Monday Morning quarterback over the ones that do. Besides, surely some mayhem was lurking around the corner, and it came from the most unlikely place.

The Milwaukee Bucks, owner of the best record in the NBA, suffered a disastrous loss in more ways than one. Dropping the first game of the series to the No. 8 seed, as a 1 seed, is embarrassing but not difficult to overcome. The Bucks were expected to sweep, so while last night's loss might have frustrated bettors, they are still more than capable of winning four out of the remaining six. Of course, that's dependent on the status of the Bucks' two-time MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Typically, a heavy favorite dropping the opener could open the door for bettors to grab them at a discounted price to win the series, but the injury throws another layer of risk into the wager. In Milwaukee's case, Giannis' injury is so significant that even betting on the Bucks' at the current odds of -225 to win the series feels more like an unnecessary risk before there is clarification on his status. There is a similar dynamic with the Memphis Grizzlies and Ja Morant's hand injury, with the Lakers moving to a -250 favorite at BetMGM. Another shocker was the Phoenix Suns losing Game 1 after entering the series as a 5-to-1 favorite, but the best approach is probably still to bet this game to game. The Clippers' odds are now shorter, and while the Suns dropping to -225 creates some value, it's still a steep price to pay after watching Kawhi Leonard drop 38 for the Clippers last night. Lucky for us, there were two other lower-profile upsets that caused a ripple in the series odds. Let's see if we can find some value.

Donovan Mitchell and J.B Bickerstaff of the Cleveland Cavaliers react to a call during the second quarter of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the New York Knicks. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Donovan Mitchell and J.B Bickerstaff of the Cleveland Cavaliers react to a call during the second quarter of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the New York Knicks. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)

New York Knicks (-155) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (+130)

Cleveland opened as a -185 favorite to win the series, and the betting market backed them up to a 2-to-1 favorite by Friday. A fourth-quarter comeback fell four points short on Saturday, and bettors have quickly turned their backs on the Cavaliers. With a pivotal Game 2 on tap Tuesday night, Cleveland's current odds are awfully tempting at +130. Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff called on this team to crank up the effort after getting beat on the boards and losing the hustle plays to the Knicks. They will not be able to match New York's bench production, but they have talented enough guards to make up for it. Moving from -200 to +130 feels like an overreaction, considering Cleveland has some key players lacking playoff experience. I wouldn't be surprised to see them settle in and push this series to Game 7 in Cleveland. In that scenario, I would feel pretty good about having the home team at +130.

Golden State Warriors (-145) vs. Sacramento Kings (+120)

All eyes were on the Sacramento Kings as the new kids on the block. They ended a historic playoff drought, lit the beam all season long and were rewarded by drawing the defending champion Golden State Warriors in the first round. Welcome to the NBA playoffs. Despite having the third-best record in the conference, the Kings entered the first round as the only team with home-court advantage not listed as the betting favorite. To make matters worse, they were a sizable +215 underdog. I bet Sacramento in Game 1 on the moneyline, figuring the thirsty playoff crowd would propel them to prove they belonged. So full disclosure, I liked the Kings at the pre-series odds and still believe they are very live to win this series. I also fully understand people love betting on Steph Curry for a good reason. If you are one of those people, the time to enter the market is now. The odds for the Warriors to win the series climbed as high as -275 and are down to -145 at BetMGM. As the series progresses and the intensity ramps up, the Warriors won't be impacted by the pressure. The Kings are a question mark. I love a good underdog, the lighting of the beam and new blood in the game. But, I can still recognize -145 is a valuable price in Golden State. If they win Game 2 and head to the Bay with a home-court advantage, you won't see this price again.

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