You’ve got to be feeling pretty good if you placed a bet on Giannis Antetokounmpo to be the NBA Finals MVP a week ago.
Antetokounmpo’s odds were +1400 to win MVP at BetMGM seven days ago after the Bucks had fallen down 2-0 to the Brooklyn Nets in their second-round series. The Nets had easily beaten the Bucks in both of those games and looked set to cruise to a series win even without James Harden.
But the Bucks won Game 3 and Game 4 to tie the series. And the Nets’ Kyrie Irving injured his ankle in Game 4. With the prospect of both Irving and Harden out for Game 5, the Bucks are favorites Tuesday night. And Antetokounmpo’s MVP odds are much, much lower.
Antetokounmpo is now the No. 2 favorite behind Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant. Durant’s odds are at +400, just ahead of the two-time MVP at +450. The top contender for Finals MVP from the Western Conference is Utah’s Donovan Mitchell at +550.
The Jazz are in the same series situation as the Nets. Utah went up 2-0 with wins at home to start the series and is now tied 2-2 with the Los Angeles Clippers after the Clippers won Game 4 on Monday night. The top MVP favorite from the Clippers is, predictably, Kawhi Leonard. He’s at +750 just behind Phoenix’s Devin Booker at +600. The Suns have already knocked out the Denver Nuggets and are the only team that’s clinched a spot in the conference finals.
Durant, who was at +150 a week ago, remains the most-bet player for Finals MVP. Over 16% of the wagers for Finals MVP have been on him and 29.4% of the handle — the total money wagered — has been placed on Durant. Harden — whose odds are now up to +2500 — is the only player over 9% in both ticket and handle. Over 11% of the wagers have been on Harden and 14.5% of the handle is on Harden to win Finals MVP.
Most likely series outcomes
There are three series outcomes that are the favorites at the moment at BetMGM. And, unsurprisingly, two of them involve the Suns.
Bucks over Suns, Suns over Nets, and Nets over Suns are all at +1000. Suns over Bucks is at +1100. While you can find low odds on a Finals series that involves the Jazz, Suns and Clippers, you have to go a long way to find a series outcome on the list that involves the top-seeded Philadelphia 76ers. The top betting odds for a Sixers series is the Sixers over the Suns at +1800.
The most unlikely series outcomes are at +15000 at BetMGM. Those four outcomes are Clippers over the Atlanta Hawks, Jazz over Hawks, Hawks over Clippers and Hawks over Jazz. If you’re confident the Hawks can get past the Sixers after tying that series at 2-2 on Monday night, you may want to make a small wager on any of those outcomes.
Current Finals MVP odds
Kevin Durant (+400)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+450)
Donovan Mitchell (+550)
Devin Booker (+600)
Kawhi Leonard (+750)
Joel Embiid (+800)
Chris Paul (+900)
Paul George (+1600)
Rudy Gobert (+1600)
James Harden (+2500)
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