The Telegraph
Opening pubs before May could cause a third wave of Covid cases, scientists have warned. Researchers from Imperial College London and the Universities of Edinburgh and Warwick said that there could be a surge of cases if restrictions are lifted too soon. Even after everyone over the age of 50 is offered the jab, cases of Covid could go up again, if restrictions like closures of shops, restaurants and pubs end too soon, they said. Their modeling suggests it would not be safe to relax restrictions fully until 80 per cent of the whole population has been vaccinated. Scientists said that while some restrictions - such as reopening schools - would need to be prioritised early, it might still be months before it was safe to do so. And they said that pubs and restaurants were unlikely to be safe to open until at least May. Professor Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, said: “A full release of the entire population from restrictions could potentially result in another wave.” Under Government plans, everyone over the age of 70 should be offered the vaccine by February 15, with all over 50s offered it by the end of April. But researchers said that even after that point relaxing the rules could see a surge in cases, which could place “very bad” pressures on the NHS. Prof Woolhouse said: “If we relax, it's quite possible, we will get a resurgence.” He said the modelling showed that even if nine in ten vulnerable people are vaccinated, the 1 million people left unprotected would fuel high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths. Asked about when pubs and restaurants might safely open, Dr Marc Baguelin, Lecturer in Infectious Disease Modelling, Imperial College London, said: “If it was to happen earlier than May it would generate a bump in [cases] which is really really bad - so you will have a lot of pressure on hospitals, you will have a new kind of wave of some extent. And so at best you will keep on having a very unsustainable level of pressure on the NHS.” Other researchers said they would be worried about any commitment to open bars and restaurants within the coming months. Professor Matt Keeling, Professor of Populations and Disease, University of Warwick, said: “I would be worried about any early opening of any bars and restaurants or just reducing the controls. I mean, at the moment we're in an unsustainable position. And we can't do anything until we've really got the numbers of cases down.”