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Local lockdowns mapped: One in five Britons now living under local Covid-19 restrictions

One in five Brits now living under local coronavirus restrictions
One in five Brits now living under local coronavirus restrictions

After new restrictions were announced for swathes of northern England over the last week , one in five of the country's population are now living with specific orders to combat rising cases, analysis by The Telegraph has found.

Residents in Northumberland, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Newcastle upon Tyne, Gateshead, Sunderland and County Durham will not be allowed to socialise with other people outside their household or support bubble, Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced last week.

Hospitality for food and drink will be restricted to table service only, and late night restrictions mean outlets will be subject to a 10pm curfew.

The following day, similar restrictions were announced for Merseyside, Warrington, Halton and Lancashire.

Wolverhampton and Oadby & Wigston in the Midlands were also on the list, along with areas of Bradford, Kirklees and Calderdale in West Yorkshire which had previously had restrictions lifted.

Local restrictions

Residents of Newcastle, Sunderland and Liverpool have now joined major cities including Glasgow, Manchester and Birmingham in having local lockdowns imposed, although specific guidance differs between the affected areas.

With more than one million people living in Birmingham, and almost two million in the North East, the total number of people living under local lockdowns (see graphic below for a map of the affected areas) has now reached more than 13.5 million – 20 per cent of the population of Great Britain.

But it still leaves more than 51 million people without any form of specific local restriction with the exception of the new "rule of six" in England.

On Monday it was announced coronavirus laws are being tightened in four Welsh authorities – Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil and Newport – following a sharp rise in cases.

Health Minister Vaughan Gething said people will not be allowed to enter or leave these areas without a reasonable excuse, such as travel for work or education, and people will only be able to meet others they don’t live with outdoors for the time being.

Rising infection rates

The new measures were introduced as close to 4,000 cases are now being detected every day across the UK, with particularly concerning rises in new cases in the north-east of England.

In County Durham, the rate of confirmed cases per 100,000 people has tripled in two weeks, from 12 in the week to August 30 to 37 in the week to September 13. Similar rises have been seen in Gateshead, from 17.8 to 81.6 cases per 100,000 people, and Newcastle upon Tyne, from 17.2 to 64.

The largest rise over the last two weeks in the North East have been in Sunderland, from 8.6 to 82.1, and North Tyneside, from 10.1 to 46.7 (the graphic below shows infection rates in the north-east of England).

However – as with other localised lockdowns – infection rates have not been evenly spread, and many neighbourhoods within the zones subject to fresh guidance have seen a fraction of the cases detected in others.

According to data from Public Health England (PHE), four of every five neighbourhoods – known as middle super output layers, or MSOAs – saw fewer than two cases in the past week.

PHE suppresses any cases fewer than two to protect patient confidentiality, meaning it is impossible to say which areas have seen zero cases.

Similarly, in County Durham the highest infection rates are confined to around 40 per cent of neighbourhoods, with the remainder seeing fewer than two cases in the past week.

The cause for concern can be seen when comparing rates to those seen a month ago (as shown in the graphic below). More than half of neighbourhoods (54 per cent) have seen rates of confirmed cases rise since the week ending August 10.

"I know that these decisions have a real impact on families, on businesses and local communities," Mr Hancock said on Thursday. "And I can tell everyone affected that we do not take these decisions lightly.

"We agree with the local councils that we must follow the data and act. And the data says we must act now so we can control the virus and keep people safe. I know that the people of the North East will come together to defeat this virus, as defeat it we must."

Read more: New lockdown rules for Lancashire, Merseyside, North West and North East

On Monday Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance laid the ground for a second lockdown, warning that without further measures the UK will see 50,000 cases a day by mid-October.

The Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser held their first Downing Street press conference for many weeks, amid surging cases and rising hospital admissions.

The epidemic is now doubling roughly every seven days "if that continues unabated...there would be something like 50,000 cases per day by the middle of October," Sir Patrick warned. That will lead to "200-plus deaths per day" by November.

Where could be next?

No 10 has confirmed that Boris Johnson will chair a meeting of Cobra, the government’s emergency committee, this morning, suggesting additional measures could follow shortly after.

Amid widespread issues with the UK testing regime, the proportion of Covid-19 tests taken resulting in positive results is beginning to rise, implying that the spread of the virus is accelerating.

In four English regions, the proportion of tests which have been positive in the latest week of data from PHE has been above five per cent – or one in 20. The rate is rising in all regions of England, but is currently lowest in the East of England and the South West (see graphic below for testing rates by region).

The five regions with the highest positive rate of tests are the North West, the North East, the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber.

Positivity rates among testing in the community – Pillar Two tests – have risen from 2.7 to 62. per cent in the North West in the past two weeks of data, up to September 6. In the North East it has risen from 2.6 to 5.3 per cent in the same time period, doubling at a similar rate.

In Yorkshire and the Humber, the rate has risen from 2.5 to 6.1 per cent in the last two weeks, as a major incident has been declared by officials in North Yorkshire.

The North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum (NYLRF) said it was reinstating "full emergency mode".

The West Midlands has seen a slower rise, from 2.7 to 5.5, but the trend suggests further local restrictions in these areas could be necessary.

Use the interactive tool below to find out about cases in your area.

Are Covid-19 cases rising or falling in your area? All local authorities with lookup. Updates automatically
Are Covid-19 cases rising or falling in your area? All local authorities with lookup. Updates automatically