FTSE 100 and European stocks rise while pound holds steady ahead of possible Labour supermajority

Well, that's all from us today, be sure to join us again tomorrow when we find out the results of the general election and drill down into all the market reaction and commentary.

For a rolling coverage on election results do check out our news live blog: Election 2024 live updates

Have a good evening all.

The European Central Bank (ECB) admitted that some of its policymakers felt there was not enough conclusive evidence to begin cutting interest rates in June.

In the minutes of its June meeting it said “some members” of the governing council had reservations about reducing rates amid rising wages and inflation.

President Christine Lagarde previously said there was only one dissenting voice among policymakers when she gave her press conference last month.

The ECB said on Thursday:

The first 100 days of any leadership are crucial. It’s the honeymoon period, where a new government can make relatively controversial changes without a dramatic backlash.

It’s a chance to set the direction of the government.

If the polls are right and Labour gets to form the next government, it must hit the ground running.

Read the full article here

Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company rose above NT$1,000 a share as the rally fueled by artificial intelligence optimism continues before its earnings.

Bloomberg has the details...

The stock closed up 2.7% to a record high in Taipei, extending its run this year to nearly 70%. The advance comes as the world’s largest chip maker is expected to report strong earnings in results due this month, thanks to booming AI demand.

Its market value based on the American depositary receipts recently surpassed Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to become the eighth-largest company globally, and is close to hit a market cap of $1 trillion. While TSMC’s cutting-edge technology and valuation are making it a favorite play among global investors, the company has also benefited from being the main advanced-chip supplier of Nvidia Corp.

TSMC is expected to post a 36% growth in the second-quarter revenue, from a year earlier, the fastest pace since the last quarter of 2022, according to a Bloomberg poll of 29 analysts. Bloomberg Intelligence expects the company’s revenue to beat market consensus by 10%, leading a batch of earnings’ surprises in Taiwan’s foundry sector.

Labour's strong lead in the polls puts the party on course to form the next UK government.

Leader Keir Starmer has announced policies and changes in the party's manifesto that could have a wide-ranging impact on investors and savers.

As the UK heads to the polls on 4 July, what could a Labour win mean for investors?

We break it down for you.

Brent oil (BZ=F) prices fell on Thursday trading after the release of weaker-than-expected US economic data.”

It came as non-manufacturing PMI numbers came in lower than estimations, indicating a slight decrease in activity, with ADP employment data also disappointing.

Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said:

The Conservatives have lost nearly half of homeowner votes, latest polling from national estate agency Jackson-Stops has revealed.

In 2019’s general election, homeowners accounted for 38% of the Conservative voter base, whilst today this figure sits at just 19%.

In a national survey conducted by OnePoll reaching over 2,000 respondents across the UK, analysis shows that overall, homeowners are planned to vote Labour in this month’s general election (30%) — a stark change from 2019 where the greater majority of homeowners voted Conservative (38%).

This fall in votes amongst homeowners is especially fascinating given the Tory party has historically been known as the party of homeownership.

Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, said:

Cineworld is set to close dozens of cinemas as part of a restructure to reviving the beleagured chain.

The company is considering closing about a quarter of its approximate 100 sites under plans which would also see it try to renegotiate rent agreements on about 50 of them, Sky News said.

Cineworld filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US in 2022 as it fought with a multi-billion dollar debt pile.

It also delisted from the London Stock Exchange in August last year after a collapse in its share price.

UK employers expect their wage bills to grow more slowly over the coming year, according to a new survey from the Bank of England.

Threadneedle Street's own Decision Maker Panel survey showed anticipated year-ahead wage growth fell by 0.3 percentage points to 4.2% in the three months to June.

It was the lowest reading since the survey started in May 2022.

"Annual wage growth was 6.0% in the three months to June, unchanged from the three months to May," the BoE said. "Firms therefore expect their wage growth to decline by 1.8 percentage points over the next 12 months based on three-month averages."

Companies surveyed by the BoE also expected to raise their own selling prices at a slower pace in the year ahead, while expecting consumer price inflation to moderate.

Bitcoin's value fell below $59,000 (£46,286) on Thursday as multiple factors exacerbated selling pressure on the digital asset. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded down 3.9% over the 24 hours, changing hands for $58,770, as of the time of writing.

Other cryptocurrencies, ether (ETH-USD) and solana (SOL-USD) have fallen further, decreasing by 4.6% and 7.3% respectively. The global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.28tn, a decrease of 4.1% over the past day, according to Coingecko data.

The recent bitcoin price drop has been exacerbated by a spike in long liquidations. Futures traders betting that the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will increase in value have lost over $240m in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data.

Read the full article here

McDonald’s outlets in Australia have cut breakfast service hours as bird flu outbreaks around the country hit egg supplies.

Breakfast orders are stopping at 10.30am instead of midday, the company said, after the Australian authorities said H7 avian influenza has emerged at nearly a dozen poultry farms across Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.

McDonald’s Australia said:

Smith & Nephew is one of the top risers on the FTSE 100 index this morning, climbing more than 8% on the day, after the Swedish investment firm Cevian Capital disclosed a stake of about 5% in the artificial hips and knees maker.

The move means Cevian now holds 43.9 million shares in the medical equipment manufacturer, making it the third largest shareholder.

Russ Mould, investment director at the stockbroker AJ Bell, said:

An intense six weeks of political campaigning comes to a head today, as the country heads to the polls for the 2024 general election.

Polling stations opened at 7am this morning, and will remain open until 10pm tonight. The first of the 650 seats are likely to declare their results from 11.30pm. Rishi Sunak was joined by his wife, Akshata Murty, as they visited a polling station to vote on Thursday.

The prime minister called a snap election on 22 May, more than 2.1 million applications to vote have been submitted, while more than 57,000 people have applied for a Voter Authority Certificate.

This is the UK's first general election that requires people to bring photo I.D. to the polling booth, and the Electoral Reform Society estimates there may be as many as 1 million people who do not have acceptable I.D. to cast a vote.

Follow the live blog from Yahoo News for all the latest on the general election 2024

The pound is largely unchanged against the dollar this morning at $1.2763, up just 0.1%. It is also flat against the euro at 84.6p.

Trading will be particularly thin as US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday.

Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group, said:

Lufthansa will consider raising its stake in Italy's ITA Airways to 90%, starting from early next year, the CEO of the German airline said in an interview published on Thursday.

Reuters has the details…

Carsten Spohr was speaking after his company won EU antitrust approval to buy 41% of state-owned ITA for 325 million euros ($350 million).

"For us, the option for the 90% starts in early 2025," Spohr told Italy's Corriere della Sera, adding that he would like the Italian government to retain a stake in ITA.

When Lufthansa agreed its 41% deal with Rome's authorities last year, it said it was looking to acquire full control of ITA "at a later date".

In a separate interview with Il Sole 24 Ore daily, ITA Chairman Antonino Turicchi said the closing of the deal for Lufthansa's initial investment would take place in November, adding that Lufthansa would have the possibility of raising its stake to 90% "one year after the closing".

Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said on Wednesday that his government wanted to maintain some oversight on ITA to protect national interests.

The UK construction sector expanded in June, but lost momentum thanks to a fall in housebuilding.

The headline S&P Global UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 52.2 from 54.7 in May, but remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

The main driver of growth was from commercial activity.

The only area to record a drop in activity was housing, where output fell again following the first increase in 19 months during May.

There was also slower rise in new orders amid election uncertainty, but the pace of job creation picked up.

Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

After the polls close at 10pm tonight, ballot boxes for the 650 constituencies are taken from polling stations to counting centres and counts begin immediately.

The first seats declare some time close to 11pm and the vast majority are declared before 09am on Friday morning.

The BBC estimates 20 results will come in before 2am and the pace will pick up after that.

Between 2am and 4am there will be 325 seats declared and between 4am and 6pm another 275. The last few results come in later on Friday morning.

More than 20,000 Tesco staff will share in a windfall profit of more than £30m after share savings schemes have matured.

These will mainly be workers on the shop floor in stores and distribution centres,

It comes as the windfall is created by the strong growth of the Tesco share price, which was £3.06 earlier this week. Those who joined the schemes are able to buy shares at a discounted price of just £1.88 or £1.98 each and either hold on to them, or sell them and make a profit on each share.

A Tesco shopfloor worker who invested the average £68 a month for the last five years stands to pocket around £6,640 from their £4,080 investment, a profit of £2,560, Tesco said.

Emma Taylor, Tesco’s chief people officer, said:

More than a million new cars were sold in the UK in the first half of the year for the first time since before the COVID-19 pandemic.

This is according to preliminary data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, (SMMT) the UK industry’s lobby group, suggested that the industry would sell about 2 million cars over the year.

New car registrations rose in June 1.1% to reach 179,263 units, taking the total to 1,006,763 new cars.

Mike Hawes, the SMMT’s chief executive, said that 2 million sales for the year would be “a bit below par” but that the recovery was a relief for the industry after years of struggles.

SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said:

Voters are now casting their ballots in a national election to choose the 650 lawmakers who will sit in Parliament for the next five years.

Outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak surprised his own party on May 22 when he called the general election, which could have taken place as late as January 2025. Polls opened at 7am this morning, and will close at 10pm.

Polling suggests it could bring an end to 14 years of the Conservative party in government, and lead to Labour opposition leader Keir Starmer being installed in Downing Street as the new prime minister.

It is the first time since December 2019 that Britain has a say on who will sit as MPs in the House of Commons and which party will form the next government.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:

Stocks in Asia hit 27-month highs overnight with the Nikkei (^N225) rising 0.8% on the day in Japan to within spitting distance of its March peak. The Hang Seng (^HSI) climbed 0.2% in Hong Kong.

However, the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.8% down by the end of the session.

It came amid lower-than-expected employment figures narrowed the odds on a September rate cut in the US. The Independence Day holiday in the United States meant thin trading, as investors waited to see the outcome of the UK election.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.5% to 5,537.02, to set an all-time high for a second straight day and for the 33rd time this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped 0.1% to 39,308.00, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) gained 0.9% to its record set the day before, closing at 18,188.30.

Trading ended early for the day ahead of the Fourth of July holiday.

Across the English Channel, polls suggested the National Rally (RN) would not win a majority of seats in Sunday’s French election as mainstream parties moved to block the far-Right.

The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds dropped to 4.35% from 4.44% late on Tuesday, a notable move for the bond market, and much of the slide came after a report on US services businesses.

Good morning and welcome to our live markets blog — we will be covering what's moving markets and all that's going on across the global economy. Today is general election day so it's sure to be a busy one for us in the UK.

Here's what's on the agenda:

• 7am: Trading updates: Peel Hunt, Polar Cap Global, Trifast

• 9am: UK SMMT new car sales for June

• 8.30am: Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy construction PMIs for June

• 9.30am: UK S&P Global construction PMI for June

• 12.30pm: ECB monetary policy meeting accounts

• 1.30pm US Continuing Claims