Keep pubs and restaurants closed until May or Covid will surge, scientists warn

Opening pubs before May could cause a third wave of Covid cases, scientists have warned.

Researchers from Imperial College London and the Universities of Edinburgh and Warwick said that there could be a surge of cases if restrictions are lifted too soon.

They said that even after everyone over 50 has been offered a vaccine, Covid cases could go up again if restrictions such as the closures of pubs, restaurants and shops end too soon.

Their modelling suggests it would not be safe to relax restrictions fully until 80 per cent of the population has been vaccinated. The Government's decisions have previously been heavily influenced by such research.

Imperial College modelling was behind the decision to put the country into the first lockdown after scientists led by Professor Neil Ferguson said that without it Britain could see 500,000 deaths.

Scientists said that while the easing of some restrictions, such as reopening schools, would need to be prioritised, it might still be months before it was safe to do so. They said pubs and restaurants were unlikely to be safe to open until at least May.

Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said: "A full release of the entire population from restrictions could potentially result in another wave."

Under Government plans, everyone over the age of 70 should be offered the vaccine by February 15, with all over-50s offered it by the end of April – but researchers said that even after that point relaxing the rules could see a surge in cases that could put "very bad" pressures on the NHS.

Prof Woolhouse said: "If we relax, it's quite possible, we will get a resurgence." He added that the modelling showed that even if nine in 10 vulnerable people are vaccinated, the one million left unprotected would fuel high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths.

Asked when pubs and restaurants might safely open, Dr Marc Baguelin, a lecturer in infectious disease modelling at Imperial College London, said: "If it was to happen earlier than May it would generate a bump [in cases] which is really, really bad – so you will have a lot of pressure on hospitals, you will have a new kind of wave of some extent.

"And so at best you will keep on having a very unsustainable level of pressure on the NHS."

Other researchers said they would be worried about any commitment to open pubs and restaurants within the coming months.

Matt Keeling, professor of populations and disease at the University of Warwick, said: "I would be worried about any early opening of any bars and restaurants or just reducing the controls. I mean, at the moment we're in an unsustainable position. And we can't do anything until we've really got the numbers of cases down."