Kamala Harris presidency 'won’t be an easy or free ride' for Canada, but still better than having Donald Trump, experts say
Kamala Harris is likely to push back Canada on major bilateral irritants like agricultural supply management policies, Digital Services Tax and defence spending
Experts on Canada-U.S. affairs believe that while a potential Kamala Harris win on Tuesday will be a “sigh of relief” and a sign of continued cooperation between the two North American nations against Donald Trump’s proposed “isolationist” policies, it won’t be without challenges.
Current Vice-President Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump on razor-thin margins across polls, making the race as tight as ever with suspense only growing in the lead up to Election Day on Nov. 5. A new poll in Iowa, a state that has been deeply Republican in recent years and Trump won in 2016 and 2020, has Harris leading Trump 47 per cent to 44 per cent.
With the race too close to call, the event has turned into quite a spectacle north of the border as Canadians keep a close watch on how it all unfolds for their southern friends. A Leger poll revealed the majority of Canadians would vote for Harris over Trump if given a chance.
However, according to an international relations expert, a Harris presidency, while "far less disruptive” than Trump’s rule and a continuation of many of Biden’s policies domestically and internationally, could still be demanding of Canada in its own way.
She has made it clear that in the CUSMA renewal negotiations next year, she will pushing back on Canada’s agricultural supply management policies and our new Digital Services Tax, which are major bilateral irritants. She will also put pressure on us to up our defence spending to reach the 2% of GDP target to which we are already committed. So it won’t be an easy or free ride.Fen Hampson, Canadian foreign policy expert, Expert Group on Canada-U.S. relations
Drawing comparisons with Trump, Hampson told Yahoo News Canada that regardless of the challenges that a Harris presidency might carry, it will act as a “huge sigh of relief” on many other fronts.
“Global U.S. allies will breathe a huge sigh of relief because she is not the isolationist that Trump is and will continue to be a strong supporter of international institutions and the NATO Alliance.”
“Harris will likely continue to give strong support to Ukraine. As many economists have also pointed out, Harris proposed economic agenda is far more fiscally responsible than Trump’s and will be beneficial economically, which will also benefit us (Canada) as the U.S. is our biggest trading partner,” Hampson stressed.
Could a Kamala Harris victory turn the tide for PM Justin Trudeau’s Liberals before elections in 2025?
The impact of a Harris presidency on the fading popularity of the Liberals in Canada will be watched closely by Canadian cultural nationalism expert Peter Hodgins, who believes there might be a lesson there for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his party in case the Democratic Party comes out on top.
“I imagine that some of the current tumult in the federal Liberals is the direct product of Kamala Harris taking over from Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate,” the Carleton University professor told Yahoo News Canada.
Hodgins believes the shake-up in the Democratic Party midway through the 2024 election campaign —which saw Kamala Harris replace Joe Biden as the party's presidential nominee — could inspire the Liberals to find a fresh fae to take on Pierre Poilievre.
“After the first debate with Biden, it was looking like Trump would cruise to victory and his handlers were happy to limit his public appearances. However, that all changed after Harris took over. As she rose in popularity, Trump became more desperate and began to campaign more earnestly. In doing so, the public’s focus shifted away from its disdain for Biden and Trump’s increasingly erratic behaviour likely brought back memories of the chaos of his regime,” Hodgins said.
My guess is that some in the Liberal party are thinking that they could pull the same rabbit out of the hat: they could replace an unpopular leader with someone more electable to bring more attention to Poilievre as Poilievre, not Poilievre as ‘not-Trudeau'.Peter Hodgins, Canadian cultural nationalism expert, Carleton University
Lastly, U.S. foreign policy expert Aaron Ettinger believes a Harris presidency would underline a theme of continuity and certainty between Canada and the U.S.
“A Harris victory would remove the Trump threat from any election discourse. It would suggest that continuity will be the theme in North American relations and allow the federal parties to adjust to that certainty,” Ettinger told Yahoo News Canada.
