Jihadists attempted terror attacks every fortnight in Europe since ISIS fall, study finds

Jihadists have carried out or attempted a terror attack every fortnight in Europe following the fall of the Islamic State, according to a new study.

An analysis has catalogued 33 known plots in Europe in 15 months since the Islamic State was driven out of Baghuz, its last stronghold, in March 2019.

The new report concludes that the threat from Islamist terror - although diminished in the wake of the collapse of Islamic State - remains at levels “that would have been seen as close to disastrous a decade previously”. It says that “the tens of thousands of radicals scattered across Europe have not disappeared” just because of Islamic State’s defeat.

The study by the Counter Extremism Group draws on a database of plots made public by the authorities both in the UK and on the Continent that has been maintained since January 2014. Prior to the defeat of Islamic State, jihadists carried out or tried to carry out close to one attack a week in Europe.

The report’s author warns that the database is “not exhaustive” and that “there are potentially more plots that took place in this period”.

Taking a cut off point of June this year, the think tank said there had been an average of 2.2 plots a month since the fall of Baghuz. In total, 11 of the plots “led to either deaths or injuries”, with six attacks in France, four in the UK and one in Italy. Twelve people have been killed and 39 injured, according to the report. Islamists continue to target the UK, France and Germany, just as they did during Islamic State’s existence. All the plots targeting Germany were disrupted.

The report suggests that ‘lone actor plots’ carried out by individuals have become increasingly common, including eight of the nine plots uncovered in the UK since March 2019. “These lone actor plots tended to have the greater chance of success,” the study warns.

The lockdown prompted by the Covid-19 pandemic may have resulted in a ‘lack of mass public gatherings’ or ‘soft targets’ for Islamist terrorists to target but it says that there were still seven catalogued plots between March this year and June, the cut off point for the study. Two of those were in the UK including the killing of three people in a park in Reading in Berkshire in June.

While Islamic State ordered direct attacks in Europe while at its peak in 2015 to 2016, this “aspect of command and control from overseas had diminished significantly” since March 2019.

“Most cases studied in this report did not demonstrate any evidence of external assistance or guidance from a foreign terrorist organisation,” states the study, but adds: “It is inspiration rather than direction that ISIS is largely able to offer its supporters in 2020.”

Intelligence services in the UK remain focused on the threat posed by Islamist terror and the MI5 watchlist has ballooned to 40,000 individuals that also includes foreign suspects capable of travelling to the UK. There are about 25,000 British-based suspects on the lists and 3,000 under active investigation at any one time.

Robin Simcox, Director of the Counter Extremism Group and author of the report, said: “Removing the Caliphate in Syria and Iraq was an effective blow against ISIS and a welcome victory in the battle against Islamist terrorism.

"However, Europe has since faced numerous plots that have no operational links to foreign terrorist groups but should be considered part of a broader, global jihad. Covid-19 has not changed this underlying dynamic, as the rate of alleged plots and attacks in Europe has remained steady even during the pandemic. The overall Islamist threat endures.”