Here Are Our ‘House of the Dragon’ Season 3 Theories and Predictions, Based on the Book
Call me Samwell Tarly, because I'm studying the history of Westeros again. While we wait for the next season of the Game of Thrones prequel series, I can't help but try and guess and predict what events and characters from George R. R. Martin's books we'll see next. Here's what I, an amateur fictional historian, think will happen on House of the Dragon season 3.
Gaming out what's going to happen over the next and final two seasons of House of the Dragon is an interesting task. On one hand, the fact that they have only two more seasons to finish telling this story should make it easy to figure out what will happen when. The book is completed, after all. But the Dance of the Dragons civil war is only covered in a small section of Fire & Blood, the House Targaryen "history book" that House of the Dragon is based on. The story of the few survivors keeps going. And like real nonfictional historical events, there was more than one event that marked the end of the war. So we kind of know how and when the show will end, but also we don't.
So, how am I going to figure this out? In the history of Westeros, this war begins in the year 129 AC and ends in the year 131 AC. House of the Dragon season 1 started more than a decade before the war, and then ended right at the beginning of 129 AC. The second season took place in 129 AC. I think it would be safe to bet that season 3 will roughly cover most of the events of 130 AC, and season 4 will go from the end of 130 AC to the beginning of 131 AC, and possibly beyond.
Several major characters could, and probably will, die in season 3. One of the reasons that House of the Dragon is fated to be a four-season show is that, unfortunately, most of the main characters do not survive this civil war. Don't read on if you don't want to get spoiled... I'm talking Red Wedding levels of spoilage, here.
A big sea battle seems imminent.
The "Battle of the Gullet" seems like the next big event from Fire & Blood that House of the Dragon will tackle. It involves the warships from the Triarchy that Tyland Lannister secured in the season 2 finale, as well as Corlys Velaryon's fleet. The battle has thousands of casualties, including Rhaenyra's heir Jace and his dragon Vermax, and permanently destroys areas of Driftmark. There's a reason that Game of Thrones never went to Driftmark and we never met members of House Velaryon before this prequel series.
The Gullet also involves the young Prince Aegon and Viserys Targaryen, Rhaenyra and Daemon's sons, who at the end of season 2 left the Vale to travel across the narrow sea to Pentos. In the book their ship, the "Gay Abandon," gets intercepted. Baby Viserys is taken prisoner by Admiral Sharako Lohar (Tyland's new bestie/mud-wrestling champion) and baby Aegon escapes on the back of his dragon. However, I would expect the HBO series to change things up. Aegon and Viserys are toddlers, and their dragons are the size of cats. My prediction? Rhaena Targaryen will rescue one of the young princes on the wild dragon, Sheepstealer, that she discovered at the end of season 2.
Get ready for more witch-y nonsense...
Daemon may have escaped the haunted castle of Harrenhal with a new feminist outlook on life, but Aemond Targaryen is on his way. In season 3, it will be his turn to suffer at the hands of Alys Rivers after the Greens retake Harrenhal and kill Simon Strong. In the book, Alys actually gets pregnant and claims that Aemond is the father of her bastard child. So we'll certainly be seeing more of her.
There's also a rumor, according to the book, that she seduced Ser Cristin Cole as well. However, hold your applause, but I believe he will die in one of season 3's many battles.
Queen Rhaenyra will take King's Landing.
The big power shift in season 3 will occur when Rhaenyra lays siege to the city where she grew up and finally gets to sit on the Iron Throne. She beheads Otto Hightower when she gets there, and imprisons Alicent and Helaena. In the book, Helaena dies by suicide after jumping from a tower... but the series may reveal she was pushed. Alicent's brother Gwayne Hightower dies in the siege as well.
Why not just end House of the Dragon there? Because the war doesn't end there! It gets very messy and complicated. While she was once known as the Realm's Delight, the people of King's Landing turn on her. Even the Velaryon navy join the uprising against her. I don't think all of that will happen in season 3, but her rule should at least start to crack. She gets paranoid, and honestly, for good reason!
Speaking of betrayal, both Ulf and Hugh–the bastard dragon riders we got to know in season 2–will switch sides and start fighting for the Greens. They defect at a battle called the First Battle of Tumbleton, which I predict will happen towards the end of season 3. (There is a Second Battle of Tumbleton that I think will be a big season 4 blow-out. It kills off as many named characters as we expected from that one battle in Game of Thrones season 8, if you catch my drift.)
King Aegon will take Dragonstone.
Meanwhile, Alicent's oldest son starts plotting. The usurper King left at the end of season 2 with Larys Strong, and they intended to go to Bravos. In the book, they only make it as far as Dragonstone. There, Aegon stages a coup against Rhaenyra on her home turf. They basically switch places, and if the show draws this out it could be kind of fun.
The Battle Above the God's Eye will take out two main players.
This event from the books, which I think will most likely happen at the end of season 3, is less of a battle and more of a duel between Daemon Targaryen and Aemond Targaryen. Spoiler alert: both of them die. If House of the Dragon season 3 kills off one of the main three characters, my prediction is Daemon.
However, the book claims that Daemon might have secretly survived and left Westeros, and I wouldn't put it past the show to lean into that idea to keep Matt Smith around for one more season... but it would be hard to explain why Daemon just ran away. Or maybe I'm totally wrong, and this won't happen until season 4, in which case I apologize for spoiling an episode of television we probably won't see until the next presidential election year.
New characters we could potentially see in season 3.
Let's wrap up with something else to look forward to: new characters! We know that Alicent's youngest son Daeron Targaryen has a dragon and a good reputation in Old Town, but he hasn't been seen yet on House of the Dragon. Surely his time has come and we'll see him in season 3, right? Two contenders for the Iron Throne come out of left field at the end of the war: a former squire named Trystane Truefyre and a possible Targaryen bastard called Gaemon Palehair. IMHO we should meet them in season 3. If the show returns to the North, we could see Jeyne Arryn's girlfriend Jessamyn Redfort and/or a Stark bastard named Sara Snow. Meanwhile, in Essos, tiny Viserys Targaryen is raised in captivity by a magister named Bambarro Bazanne and later by members of House Rogare in Essos. He does eventually return to Westeros, but if we see that on screen I think it will definitely be in season 4.
Finally, there is a mysterious character named Nettles in the book whose storyline may or may not have been given to Rhaena Targaryen on the show. Can't wait to find out!
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