HDB BTO Application Rate (From 2020 to Now): Which Estates Are the Easiest to Get in Singapore

HDB BTO Application Rate (From 2020 to Now): Which Estates Are the Easiest to Get in Singapore
HDB BTO Application Rate (From 2020 to Now): Which Estates Are the Easiest to Get in Singapore

The results for the HDB BTO August 2022 launch are in, along with the average HDB BTO application rate for each estate’s project. The hot favourite among first-timers for this round was the August 2022 Ang Mo Kio BTO Map launch, Central Weave @ AMK. Similar to the May BTO 2022 launch, the Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) flats in Bukit Merah saw much less demand.

While some of us would fight tooth and nail for flats in a more central location, there are also HDB BTO flat applicants who just want a place ASAP. For some, maybe they’re tired of repeatedly trying for an HDB BTO flat. And to succeed, perhaps the best chance is to ballot for a project in an estate with a low HDB BTO application rate.

So which are the easiest estates to get an HDB BTO flat in?

HDB BTO Application Rates: How Were They Like?

Before we dive into this topic, let’s take a look at the HDB BTO August 2022 application rates received as of 5 September 2022, 11.59pm for flats that were 3-room and bigger for non-elderly applicants. Flat types in all estates saw competition in varying doses.

HDB BTO 2022: Average Application Rate

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

Keat Hong Grange (Choa Chu Kang, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 96

  • 4 room: 374

  • 5-room: 323

= 793

  • 3-room: 220

  • 4-room: 733

  • 5-room: 919

= 1,872

  • 3-room: 2.3


  • 4-room: 2.0

  • 5-room: 2.8

= 2.4

Jurong East Breeze (Jurong East, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 87

  • 4-room: 252

= 339

  • 3-room: 354

  • 4-room: 1,678

= 2,032

  • 3-room: 4.1

  • 4-room: 6.7

= 6.0

Woodlands South Plains (Woodlands, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 87

  • 4-room: 268

= 355

  • 3-room: 709

  • 4-room: 3,131

= 3,840

  • 3-room: 8.1

  • 4-room: 11.7

= 10.8

Central Weave @ AMK (Ang Mo Kio, Mature)

  • 4-room: 398

  • 5-room/3Gen: 372

= 770

  • 4-room: 5,033

  • 5-room/3Gen: 6,513

= 11,546

  • 4-room: 12.6

  • 5-room/3Gen: 17.5

= 15.0

Alexandra Vale / Havelock Hillside (Bukit Merah, Mature)

  • 3-room: 353

  • 4-room: 1,298

= 1,651

  • 3-room: 967

  • 4-room: 7,916

= 8,883

  • 3-room: 2.7

  • 4-room: 6.1

= 5.4

Source: HDB

The HDB BTO August 2022 Ang Mo Kio launch took the top spot, with an average application rate of 15.0. This figure is much higher than the PLH launch in Bukit Merah which had an average application rate of 5.4 for the 3-room and 4-room flats for non-elderly applicants.

Note: The highest chance of success is to ballot for a flat type in a project in which the average application rate is 1. This means the number of applicants is the same as the number of units available, so you’re sure to get a ballot number. Looking at this average application rate, we can kinda find out which estates are the easiest to get an HDB BTO flat in.

November 2021 vs August 2022 PLH BTO Flats

Nov 2021 Rochor BTO flat
River Peaks I & II, the November 2021 PLH BTO flat offering. Source: HDB

Flats released under the HDB Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) model are a new category of flats. In a way, these are the crème de la crème of HDB BTO flats as these public housing projects sit on prime land.

And owing to their premium location, there are of course more restrictions in place. Such as a Minimum Occupancy Period (MOP) of 10 years (up from the usual five), disallowing the rental of the entire flat, and limiting the pool of eligible resale buyers for these PLH flats.

In November 2021, the first batch of PLH flats launched in Rochor, River Peaks I & II. The 960 3- and 4-room units available saw a total of 7,843 HDB BTO applications, at an average application rate of 8.2.

Alexandra Vale, the August 2022 PLH BTO flat offering. Source: HDB
Alexandra Vale, the August 2022 PLH BTO flat offering. Source: HDB

The HDB BTO application rate for the August BTO 2022 PLH model flats at Bukit Merah (Alexandra Vale / Havelock Hillside ) turned out to be less popular, with an average HDB BTO application rate of 5.4.

HDB BTO Application Rate: Which Estates Have the Highest Chance of Getting Ballot Number

Let’s go back to the crux of this article, which is to suss out which estates have the highest chance of balloting and getting a successful queue number.

Top 5 Non-mature HDB Estates to Ballot for a BTO Flat

Estate

Application Rate for 3-room Flats & Bigger (Non-Elderly, Overall)

Jurong West

From 1.4 to 9.9

Bukit Batok

1.9

Choa Chu Kang

From 2.3 to 2.4

Tengah

From 2.5 to 5.5

Yishun

From 3.4 to 13.4

Traditionally, non-mature estates are located in the more ‘ulu’ parts of Singapore, in the Outside Central Region with fewer amenities, popular schools and transport links as compared to their mature counterparts.

However, not all non-mature estates buck this trend. From the full list above, Hougang, Jurong East, Sembawang and Woodlands are pretty popular, with the demand for Hougang Citrine/Kovan Wellspring BTO flats hitting an impressive overall application rate of 19.6 for 3-room flats and above. That’s more than some mature estates!

For a high balloting success rate, if you don’t mind being away from the hustle and bustle, and possibly additional travelling time, the non-mature estates of Jurong West, Bukit Batok, Choa Chu Kang, Tengah and Yishun are your best bet.

However, do note that the demand for Tengah varies. Touted as a new ‘forest town, future residents can experience green living in a car-free city centre, lots of walking paths and even shared gardening spaces. New transport links are also planned within the town. With the new BTO units in Tengah quickly filling up, we can expect demand to soon outstrip supply.

Top 5 Mature HDB Estates to Ballot for a BTO Flat

Estate

Application Rate for 3-room Flats & Bigger (Non-Elderly, Overall)

Tampines

From 2.1 to 4.3

Toa Payoh

From 5.0 to 8.3

Pasir Ris

5.3

Geylang

From 5.3 to 24.2

Bukit Merah

From 4.4 to 5.4

This list should definitely be taken with a pinch of salt as depending on the project, many of these mature estates have seen application rates go through the roof, especially in those in the Rest of Central Region such as Toa Payoh, Geylang and Bukit Merah.

Other case studies are Toa Payoh and Geylang, where the demand also greatly varies, depending on the project size and location.

Another factor we feel affects the application rate of BTO flats in mature estates is price. A 4-room unit on a lower floor in the RCR could easily fetch upwards of $500k or even up to $700k. This could be daunting for first-time homeowners, especially if they intend to start a family and cannot afford to have a cash outlay. Naturally, with such high (though subsidised) prices, the premium paid translates to wanting better transport links, views and other surrounding amenities.

Additionally, the flats launched under the PLH model in Bukit Merah have a more stringent set of rules attached (e.g. longer MOP, subsidy clawback when the flat is sold on the open market for the first time). These factors combined may deter some from buying flats in certain mature neighbourhoods.

Average HDB BTO Application Rate From Feb 2020 to August 2022

To figure out which HDB BTO estates are the easiest to get an HDB BTO queue number in, we’ll look at recent data and figure out the HDB BTO application rates. We looked at HDB BTO launches from 2020 till now, sans May 2020 as that was deferred to August 2020 which saw a bumper crop.

Here are the average HDB BTO application rates for launches between February 2020 to August 2022. See the results of past launches yourself so you can guesstimate what kind of competition you might be facing.

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: February 2020

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

Canberra Vista (Sembawang, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 124

  • 4-room: 385

  • 5-room/ 3Gen: 266

= 775

  • 3-room: 847

  • 4-room: 3,048

  • 5-room/ 3Gen: 3,738

= 7,633

  • 3-room: 6.8

  • 4-room: 7.9

  • 5-room/ 3Gen: 14.1

= 9.8

Toa Payoh Ridge / Kim Keat Ripples (Toa Payoh, Mature))

  • 3-room: 102

  • 4-room: 1,211

= 1,313

  • 3-room: 935

  • 4-room: 11,684

= 12,619

  • 3-room: 9.2

  • 4-room: 9.6

= 9.6

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: August 2020

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

Keat Hong Verge (Choa Chu Kang, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 118

  • 4-room: 290

= 408

  • 3-room: 263

  • 4-rom: 683

= 946

  • 3-room: 2.2

  • 4-room: 2.4

= 2.3

Parc Residences @ Tengah (Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 99

  • 4-room: 281

  • 5-room: 184

= 564

  • 3-room: 363

  • 4-room: 1,436

  • 5-room: 1,284

= 3,083

  • 3-room: 3.7

  • 4-room: 5.1

  • 5-room: 7.0

= 5.5

UrbanVille @ Woodlands / Champions Bliss (Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 144

  • 4-room: 706

  • 5-room: 438

= 1,288

  • 3-room: 896

  • 4-room: 4,125

  • 5-room: 4,297

= 9,318

  • 3-room: 6.2

  • 4-room: 5.8

  • 5-room: 9.8

= 7.2

Kebun Baru Edge (Ang Mo Kio, Mature)

  • 4-room: 240

  • 5-room: 140

= 380

  • 4-room: 2,568

  • 5-room: 3,006

= 5,574

  • 4-room: 10.7

  • 5-room: 21.5

= 14.7

Bishan Towers (Bishan, Mature)

  • 3-room: 80

  • 4-room: 272

= 352

  • 3-room: 319

  • 4-room: 1,689

= 2,008

  • 3-room: 4.0

  • 4-room: 6.2

= 5.7

Dakota One (Geylang, Mature)

  • 3-room: 87

  • 4-room: 334

= 414

  • 3-room: 787

  • 4-room: 6,394

= 7,181

  • 3-room: 9.0

  • 4-room: 19.1

= 17.3

Costa Grove (Pasir Ris, Mature)

  • 3-room: 160

  • 4-room: 373

  • 5-room: 325

= 858

  • 3-room: 436

  • 4-room: 1,771

  • 5-room: 2,369

= 4,576

  • 3-room: 2.7

  • 4-room: 4.7

  • 5-room: 7.3

= 5.3

Tampines GreenCrest / Tampines GreenOpal / Tampines GreenGlade (Tampines, Mature)

  • 3-room: 182

  • 4-room: 871

  • 5-room: 717

= 1,770

  • 3-room: 486

  • 4-room: 1,864

  • 5-room: 1,402

= 3,752

  • 3-room: 2.7

  • 4-room: 2.1

  • 5-room: 2.0

= 2.1

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: November 2020

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

Sun Sails (Sembawang, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 84

  • 4-room: 238

  • 5-room: 184

= 506

  • 3-room: 359

  • 4-room: 964

  • 5-room: 1,060

= 2,383

  • 3-room: 4.3

  • 4-room: 4.1

  • 5-room: 5.8

= 4.7

Garden Court @ Tengah / Garden Terrace @ Tengah (Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 218

  • 4-room: 570

  • 5-room: 327

= 1,115

  • 3-room: 277

  • 4-room: 1,495

  • 5-room: 1,343

= 3,115

  • 3-room: 1.3

  • 4-room: 2.6

  • 5-room: 4.1

= 2.8

Bishan Ridges (Bishan, Mature)

  • 3-room: 124

  • 4-room: 1,222

= 1,346

  • 3-room: 822

  • 4-room: 8,635

= 9,457

  • 3-room: 6.6

  • 4-room: 7.1

= 7.0

Tampines GreenEmerald (Tampines, Mature)

  • 4-room: 360

  • 5-room: 244

= 604

  • 4-room: 1,441

  • 5-room: 1,126

= 2,567

  • 4-room: 4.0

  • 5-room: 4.6

= 4.3

Bartley Beacon / ParkView @ Bidadari (Toa Payoh, Mature)

  • 3-room: 184

  • 4-room: 910

  • 5-room: 144

= 1,238

  • 3-room: 401

  • 4-room: 3,598

  • 5-room: 2,170

= 6,169

  • 3-room: 2.2

  • 4-room: 4.0

  • 5-room: 15.1

= 5.0

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: February 2021

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

West Hill @ Bukit Batok (Bukit Batok, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 81

  • 4-room: 387

  • 5-room: 331

= 799

  • 3-room: 212

  • 4-room: 615

  • 5-room: 666

= 1,493

  • 3-room: 2.6

  • 4-room: 1.6

  • 5-room: 2.0

= 1.9

Parc Woods @ Tengah (Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 83

  • 4-room: 387

= 470

  • 3-room: 198

  • 4-room: 1,294

= 1,492

  • 3-room: 2.4

  • 4-room: 3.3

= 3.2

McNair Heights (Kallang/ Whampoa, Mature)

  • 3-room: 104

  • 4-room: 386

= 490

  • 3-room: 413

  • 4-room: 2,869

= 3,282

  • 3-room: 4.0

  • 4-room: 7.4

= 6.7

Bartley GreenRise / ParkEdge @ Bidadari / Alkaff Breeze (Toa Payoh, Mature)

  • 3-room: 96

  • 4-room: 797

  • 5-room: 323

= 1,216

  • 3-room: 462

  • 4-room: 4,667

  • 5-room: 3,193

= 8,322

  • 3-room: 4.8

  • 4-room: 5.9

  • 5-room: 9.9

= 6.8

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: May 2021

Project(s)

No. of Units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of Applicants (Non-Elderly)

Avg. Application Rate (Non-Elderly)

Garden Bloom @ Tengah (Non-mature)

  • 4-room: 265

  • 5-room: 251

= 516

  • 4-room: 1,023

  • 5-room: 1,168

= 2,191

  • 4-room: 3.9

  • 5-room: 4.7

= 4.2

Woodgrove Ascent (Woodlands, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 84

  • 4-room: 411

  • 5-room: 359

= 854

  • 3-room: 451

  • 4-room: 1,794

  • 5-room: 1,990

= 4,235

  • 3-room: 5.4

  • 4-room: 4.4

  • 5-room: 5.5

= 5.0

Telok Blangah Beacon (Bukit Merah, Mature)

  • 3-room: 105

  • 4-room: 70

= 175

  • 3-room: 604

  • 4-room: 3,474

= 4,078

  • 3-room: 5.8

  • 4-room: 49.6

= 23.3

MacPherson Weave (Geylang, Mature)

  • 3-room: 156

  • 4-room: 1,010

= 1,166

  • 3-room: 569

  • 4-room: 5,595

= 6,164

  • 3-room: 3.6

  • 4-room: 5.5

= 5.3

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: August 2021

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

Hougang Citrine / Kovan Wellspring (Hougang, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 178

  • 4-room: 459

  • 5-room: 102

= 739

  • 3-room: 1,986

  • 4-room: 11,420

  • 5-room: 1,085

= 14,491

  • 3-room: 11.2

  • 4-room: 24.9

  • 5-room: 10.6

= 19.6

Toh Guan Grove (Jurong East, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 85

  • 4-room: 240

= 325

  • 3-room: 520

  • 4-room: 3,628

= 4,148

  • 3-room: 6.1

  • 4-room: 15.1

= 12.8

Towner Residences (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature)

  • 3-room: 90

  • 4-room: 226

= 316

  • 3-room: 265

  • 4-room: 1,928

= 2,193

  • 3-room: 2.9

  • 4-room: 8.5

= 6.9

Queen’s Arc (Queenstown, Mature)

  • 3-room: 76

  • 4-room: 534

= 610

  • 3-room: 354

  • 4-room: 4,099

= 4,453

  • 3-room: 4.7

  • 4-room: 7.7

= 7.3

Tampines GreenQuartz / Tampines GreenJade (Tampines, Mature)

  • 3-room: 87

  • 4-room: 989

  • 5-room: 881

= 1,957

  • 3-room: 627

  • 4-room: 3,443

  • 5-room: 4,255

= 8,325

  • 3-room: 7.2

  • 4-room: 3.5

  • 5-room: 4.8

= 4.3

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: November 2021

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

Tanjong Tree Residences @ Hougang / Hougang Olive (Non-mature)

  • 4-room: 378

  • 5-room: 312

= 690

  • 4-room: 1,643

  • 5-room: 1,852

= 3,495

  • 4-room: 4.3

  • 5-room: 5.9

= 5.1

Nanyang Opal (Jurong West, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 91

  • 4-room: 130

= 221

  • 3-room: 87

  • 4-room: 229

= 316

  • 3-room: 1.0

  • 4-room: 1.8

= 1.4

Parc Glen @ Tengah / Parc Clover @ Tengah (Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 198

  • 4-room: 872

  • 5-room: 653

= 1,723

  • 3-room: 366

  • 4-room: 1,863

  • 5-room: 2,120

= 4,349

  • 3-room: 1.8

  • 4-room: 2.1

  • 5-room: 3.2

= 2.5

River Peaks I / River Peaks II (Central)

  • 3-room: 280

  • 4-room: 680

= 960

  • 3-room: 867

  • 4-room: 6976

= 7,843

  • 3-room: 3.1

  • 4-room: 10.3

= 8.2

Kent Heights (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature)

4-room: 276

4-room: 1,813

4-room: 6.6

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: February 2022

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

Parc Flora @ Tengah / Plantation Creek (Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 85

  • 4-room: 570

  • 5-room: 517

= 1,172

  • 3-room: 362

  • 4-room: 1,813

  • 5-room: 2,406

= 4,581

  • 3-room: 4.3

  • 4-room: 3.2

  • 5-room: 4.7

= 3.9

Yishun Boardwalk / Grove Spring @ Yishun (Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 162

  • 4-room: 686

  • 5-room: 613

= 1,461

  • 3-room: 808

  • 4-room: 2,187

  • 5-room: 2,018

= 5,013

  • 3-room: 5.0

  • 4-room: 3.2

  • 5-room: 3.3

= 3.4

Dakota Crest (Geylang, Mature)

  • 3-room: 80

  • 4-room: 242

= 322

  • 3-room: 833

  • 4-room: 6,961

= 7,794

  • 3-room: 10.4

  • 4-room: 28.8

= 24.2

King George’s Heights (Kallang/Whampoa, Mature)

  • 3-room: 104

  • 4-room: 294

= 398

  • 3-room: 661

  • 4-room: 5,140

= 5,801

  • 3-room: 6.4

  • 4-room: 17.5

= 14.6

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: May 2022

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

Lakeside View (Jurong West, Non-mature

  • 3-room: 101

  • 4 room: 246

  • 5-room: 214

= 561

  • 3-room: 446

  • 4-room: 1,827

  • 5 room: 3,294

= 5,567

  • 3-room: 4.4

  • 4-room: 7.4

  • 5-room: 15.4

= 9.9

Yishun Beacon (Yishun, Non-mature)

  • 4-room: 207

  • 5-room: 166

= 373

  • 4-room: 2,525

  • 5-room: 2,491

= 5,016

  • 4-room: 12.2

  • 5-room: 15.0

= 13.4

Bukit Merah Ridge (Bukit Merah, Mature)

  • 3-room: 443

  • 4-room: 1,226

= 1,669

  • 3-room: 723

  • 4-room: 6,560

= 7,283

  • 3-room: 1.6

  • 4-room: 5.4

= 4.4

Ghim Moh Ascent (Queenstown, Mature)

  • 3-room: 196

  • 4-room: 671

= 867

  • 3-room: 293

  • 4-room: 2,919

= 3,212

  • 3-room: 1.5

  • 4-room: 4.4

= 3.7

Kim Keat Heights (Toa Payoh, Mature)

  • 3-room: 100

  • 4-room: 165

= 265

  • 3-room: 415

  • 4-room: 1,797

= 2,212

  • 3-room: 4.2

  • 4-room: 10.9

= 8.3

Average HDB BTO Application Rates: August 2022

Project(s)

No. of units (3-, 4- and 5-Room)

No. of applicants

Avg. application rate

Keat Hong Grange (Choa Chu Kang, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 96

  • 4 room: 374

  • 5-room: 323

= 793

  • 3-room: 220

  • 4-room: 733

  • 5-room: 919

= 1,872

  • 3-room: 2.3


  • 4-room: 2.0

  • 5-room: 2.8

= 2.4

Jurong East Breeze (Jurong East, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 87

  • 4-room: 252

= 339

  • 3-room: 354

  • 4-room: 1,678

= 2,032

  • 3-room: 4.1

  • 4-room: 6.7

= 6.0

Woodlands South Plains (Woodlands, Non-mature)

  • 3-room: 87

  • 4-room: 268

= 355

  • 3-room: 709

  • 4-room: 3,131

= 3,840

  • 3-room: 8.1

  • 4-room: 11.7

= 10.8

Central Weave @ AMK (Ang Mo Kio, Mature)

  • 4-room: 398

  • 5-room/3Gen: 372

= 770

  • 4-room: 5,033

  • 5-room/3Gen: 6,513

= 11,546

  • 4-room: 12.6

  • 5-room/3Gen: 17.5

= 15.0

Alexandra Vale / Havelock Hillside (Bukit Merah, Mature)

  • 3-room: 353

  • 4-room: 1,298

= 1,651

  • 3-room: 967

  • 4-room: 7,916

= 8,883

  • 3-room: 2.7

  • 4-room: 6.1

= 5.4

Of course, these results aren’t conclusive as demand rests on multiple factors. Not just the estate, but also where the project site is, external factors like pent-up demand brought about by Singapore’s Circuit Breaker period during the pandemic, HDB construction delays that may see more couples looking for resale or rental units and so on.

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