Government must focus on Covid's economic impact, claims No 10 ally

A Number 10 ally has called on Boris Johnson's Government to change its coronavirus strategy and focus more on the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, amid mounting criticism over the Government's handling of the crisis.

James Frayne, who is close to Mr Johnson's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, and until recently carried out focus group research for the Cabinet Office, accused the Government of "dicing with political death in recent times" and warned that Downing Street's draconian approach "will come back to haunt them in calmer times".

MPs spent Wednesday widely circulating Mr Frayne's article for the Conservative Home website, which urged Number 10 to "downgrade scientists" and "unleash" Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, to be "honest with the public" about the risks to the economy and jobs caused by Covid.

He also accused the Government of "misunderstanding the character of the English" in encouraging them to "snitch" on their neighbours, saying: "Ministers should remember who the English are: law-abiding; fair-minded; [nuclear] family-focused; and ultimately liberal.

"Pushing them into civil disobedience to protect their families will end catastrophically badly. And, whatever you do, don’t mess with the English Christmas."

Mr Frayne also accused Downing Street of making "lifetime enemies of middle class parents of students in recent weeks".

Despite his career in focus group research, Mr Frayne, also a close ally of Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove, suggested the Government "junk almost all opinion polling", saying: "Public opinion is in a state of total unreality and has been for many months."

The market research expert, whose company, Public First, was awarded an £840,000 contract in July to research public opinion about the Government's Covid-19 policies, pointed out that "the public has no sense at all of the real state of the economy – and therefore no sense whatever of the trade-offs the Government is making between public health and public finances".

Calling for Mr Sunak to "start telling the public some fundamental truths about the need to protect the economy", he said: "The public aren't daft, and they'll come to accept this. But it's a message that is going to take time to filter through; it needs to be delivered now.

"Strategically speaking, communicating on the economy is now the most important comms challenge – because of the need to prepare people for balanced risk.”

Flying in the face of Mr Johnson’s reliance on Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) advisers, he added: “There’s little gain now in having the scientists keep talking about the health risks. They won’t help keep the public onside if a million people join the dole queues.

“While the nature of the conversation will necessarily be brutal and uncomfortable, the Government must start talking about the balanced risks of ongoing restrictions.

"It has to: the chances of the cavalry arriving with millions of vaccine shots before the money runs out look slim. It seems likely, at some point, that we’ll have to find a way to live with risk (see chart below for the most up-to-date figures).

“If ministers don’t prepare the ground now, they’ll find the public in a state of hostile shock when all of a sudden the Government removes financial support. As part of this process, they’ve also got to start encouraging the public to start managing their own risk.”

Mr Frayne also recommended the Government “drop the casual use of pointlessly technical language that ordinary people can’t possibly understand".

Referring to the so-called ‘R rate’ of infection, he said: “As part of the shift to promote political voices, there’s got to be an onus on using the simplest language.”

He also suggested it would be “far easier to keep the public onside” if Britain was seen to be “cooperating with the other countries and learning lessons from them”.

Criticising the Government’s “tit for tat” quarantine restrictions, he said international relations were not given the attention they merited, adding: “It was a real low point in the crisis.”

Mr Frayne was director of communications at the Department for Education from 2011 and 2012, when he worked closely with Mr Gove, then the Education Secretary, and Mr Cummings, his special adviser.

Public First was paid £58,000 in March by the Cabinet Office for focus group work on “Gov Comms EU Exit Prog”, then a further £75,000 later that month for work classed as “Insight and Evaluation”.

In April, 10 days into lockdown, the Cabinet Office paid Public First £42,000 for work listed again as “EU Exit Comms”. The first payment for work listed as being coronavirus-related was on 27 May: £78,187.07.

A total of £253,187.07 was paid to Public First before the latest contract was entered into on 5 June.

According to Mr Frayne’s article, he is no longer undertaking work with the Cabinet Office, saying the work “is ultimately extremely low-margin, all-consuming and a distraction from commercial work”.