Georgia votes in critical election regarded as referendum on whether to join EU
Georgians were voting on Saturday in a crucial election - both for an opportunity to join the European Union and to stop the ruling party winning again and taking the county down a more repressive path.
The pre-election campaign in the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million people was dominated by foreign policy and marked by a bitter fight for votes and allegations of a smear campaign.
Polls opened in the parliamentary election at 8 a.m. local time and will close 12 hours later.
In an exclusive interview with Euronews Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said the election "is also a referendum about the war and the peace issue," referring to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"The Georgian Dream government, we believe, is the strongest guarantee for peace in this country, but it's also about the development of the country," he added.
Some Georgians have complained of intimidation and being pressured to vote for the ruling party, Georgian Dream, while the opposition accused the party of carrying out a “hybrid war” against its citizens.
In the run-up to the vote, Bidzina Ivanishvili — a shadowy billionaire who set up Georgian Dream and made his fortune in Russia — vowed again to ban opposition parties should his party win.
Georgian Dream will hold opposition parties “fully accountable under the full force of the law” for “war crimes” committed against the people of Georgia, Ivanishvili said at a pro-government rally in the capital Tbilisi on Wednesday. He did not explain what crimes he believes the opposition has committed.
Georgians will elect 150 lawmakers from 18 parties. If no party wins the 76 seats required to form a government for a four-year term, the president will invite the largest party to form a coalition.
Many believe the election may be the most crucial vote of their lifetimes; it will determine whether Georgia gets back on track to EU membership or embraces authoritarianism and falls into Russia's orbit.
“It's an existential election,” Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili said.
Georgians want “European integration, want to move forward and want policies which will bring us a better, more stable, future,” Qristine Tordia, 29, told The Associated Press shortly after voting in the capital, Tbilisi.
The opposition parties
The ruling Georgia Dream party faces four main opposition parties: United National Movement, Strong Georgia, Coalition for Change and Gakharia for Georgia.
All have signed the Georgian Charter, a call to action from Zourabichvili. In it, she asks the four parties to help remove Georgian Dream from power by blocking it from forming a coalition.
Critics say Georgian Dream, which has been in power since 2012, has lost the people's trust thanks to the controversial "foreign agents" bill, also known as the "Russian law", which sparked mass protests this year and froze Georgia's EU accession process.
Founded and led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the party has proposed other legislation that the opposition says mimics laws introduced in Russia — including a recently passed bill that severely restricts the LGTBQ+ community.
Georgian Dream claims it can guarantee peace with neighbouring Russia via pragmatic policies and describes the current elections as a choice between "peace and war".
Ivanishvili has also promised to reset relations with the EU, but it is unclear how he would do this whilst pushing through legislation that has been widely condemned by Western countries.
Meanwhile, the opposition increasingly views the election as an existential challenge to Georgian democracy, with Georgian Dream vowing to change the constitution to ban opposition parties if it secures three-quarters of the seats in the country's 150-seat parliament.
What do predictions say?
Opinion polls have so far given contradictory results, with several of them commissioned by political parties.
A poll by UK market research firm Savanta on Thursday puts Georgian Dream in the lead with 35% and Coalition for Change second at 19%.
Coalition for Change's Marika Mikiashvili said although she was happy to see her party in second place, unseating Georgian Dream remains the priority.
"Right now, what we are focusing on is a coalition government that will deliver overall change and open accession talks with the European Union," Mikiashvili told Euronews.
"It's important that the Coalition for Change, a party that is supported by the youth, gets ahead, but forming a coalition government focused on democracy is the priority."
Mikiashvili said her party would aim to hold snap elections once the key reforms are made to reopen discussions with the EU, in line with the Georgian Charter.
The biggest party, United National Movement, currently polling at third place with 16% previously oversaw a controversial nine years in power. Mikiashvili says her party would be willing to enter a coalition with them in order to immediately remove Georgian Dream from power.
What are the obstacles?
Georgia's pro-EU movement has been strong for decades, with a survey in March 2023 finding 85% of Georgians to be in favour of joining the bloc.
Despite the depth of approval, Georgian Dream secured a third term in power in 2020. Yet some experts suggest that the introduction of the foreign agents bill and the stalling of EU accession have permanently damaged Georgian Dream's popularity.
"Georgian Dream's popularity has declined since the last elections, not least due to the catastrophic move they have made in the past years," said Dr Shalva Dzebisashvili, head of Politics and International Relations at the University of Georgia.
"This isn't a regular election," Dzebisashvili told Euronews. "People know if we choose Georgian Dream it means the status quo, and the refusal of the European future."
But if Georgian Dream's popularity has indeed declined, pro-European campaigners say they are still concerned about voter intimidation in the election's run-up.
Dzebisashvili points out that Georgian Dream controls the electoral commission, the court and thousands of public servants.
"We are worried that in more remote regions and local municipalities, people could be either directly or indirectly influenced to vote for Georgian Dream."
"We are worried about reports that people have been asked to show evidence of who they have voted for, and have been threatened with losing their jobs," says Elene Kintsurashvili, a programme coordinator for the German Marshall Fund.
She points to a lack of polling stations for Georgian diaspora in neighbouring countries such as Poland, where she says the only polling station is in the country's capital of Warsaw.
There are additional concerns that Russia will try and interfere during the election, as it did in Moldova when citizens went to the polls last weekend, where it launched disinformation and vote-buying campaigns.
Experts also suggest that if Georgian Dream do finish short of a majority as the polls predict, they may not accept their defeat and allow the transfer of power to a different party.
"Knowing the party is simply not ready to admit defeat and follow a simple transition of power creates this kind of very tense feeling in the society," Dzebisashvili said. "There is valid concern that they could try and use brute force."
What's next?
The European Parliament confirmed the elections will be monitored by both domestic and international observers, including a delegation from the European Parliament.
Polls will open at 8 am local time (6 am CET) on Saturday and close that evening, with a clear picture of results expected to arrive between late Saturday and early Sunday morning.
The party with the most votes will have the right to form a government, with the president overseeing potential new elections.
If Zourabichvili's Georgian Charter holds, Georgian Dream will be unable to form a coalition as the remaining parties will refuse to work with them.
But in the absence of reliable polling, the outcome of the election remains unpredictable — as does the reaction of Georgian Dream if it loses.
Euronews has reached out to Georgian Dream for comment.