Geopolitical, economic rivalry between US and China: Africa’s dilemma and challenges
The 21st-century geopolitical and geo-economic landscape is characterised by the rivalry between the United States and China. This rivalry cuts across various dimensions such as trade, technology, military influence, and control over international organisations.
One of the key battlefields for this rivalry is Africa, a continent with abundant natural resources, a youthful population, unexploited economic potential, and a location at the centre of significant global trade routes. The US has been a dominant external actor in the region, focusing on aid, security ties, and the propagation of democratic ideals, in addition to its own economic investments.
These are achieved through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and other military and humanitarian assistance programmes designed to create African states that are stable, prosperous, and firmly grounded in Western democratic norms.
However, China’s recent bold push into Africa, through massive infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), trade deals, and granting of loans, has transformed the geopolitical posture of the continent. Unlike the US model, Chinese grants come with no political conditions attached, owing to its non-interference policy. This has attracted many African leaders as an alternative to the political strings attached to Western aid.
While the US uses economic tools as a means of achieving a political end state, China focuses on infrastructure and resource extraction. Both approaches have implications for Africa’s development and progress. Notwithstanding that the competition brings more investments and growth to Africa, it also means that Africa has transformed into a bargaining chip in the geopolitical game, losing an opportunity to control its resources.
African states must therefore act in a way that achieves a balance and upholds sustainability and long-term benefits, rather than allowing foreign states to undermine that control and hegemony.
The US-China rivalry in Africa impacts the continent in diverse political, economic, and socio-cultural dimensions. First, it affects Africa’s politics, influencing internal policies, foreign relations, and strategic affiliations. The rivalry also has economic implications, especially regarding debt sustainability.
Chinese loans have given rise to significant debt accumulation in African countries. In 2023, Africa’s debt to China was 13 per cent of the continent’s external debt. The largest debtors were Angola and Ethiopia, with debt stocks of US$20.98 billion and US$6.82 billion, respectively.
US-China engagements in Africa also influence local cultures, social structures, educational systems, and the media. While these influences offer numerous benefits, they could also dilute Africa’s identity and much-cherished cultural heritage. African nations must, therefore, strike a balance to maintain their social and cultural autonomy while also benefiting from the superpowers’ presence and investments.
A key challenge in the US-China rivalry is the potential erosion of Africa’s sovereignty and policy autonomy. This is given that both superpowers are capable of directing the decision-making of African governments to suit their interests rather than those of the African states.
Further challenges include the issue of economic dependencies and vulnerabilities caused by Chinese and American investments and infrastructure. By relying on China for infrastructure, and the US for security and development aid, African-owned industries are skewed towards foreign firms, which hampers the growth of domestic industries, as raw materials are mostly exported while finished products are imported back to Africa.
More concerning are the environmental hazards associated with US-China infrastructure and resource extraction on a massive scale. Poorly managed projects can result in environmental damage, loss of biodiversity, and adverse effects on the livelihoods and health of local communities.
Despite these challenges, there are various opportunities in US-China engagements in Africa. One of the key opportunities is Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). FDI to Africa from the US peaked in 2014 at US$69.03 billion, but declined progressively and was surpassed by that from China in 2019 (US$49.1 billion). By 2022, FDI from the US showed a marginal increase (US$46.1 billion) compared to the two previous years, but was again exceeded by that from China in 2023 (US$48 billion).
African leaders could, therefore, adopt various strategies to unlock these opportunities while mitigating the challenges. They need to diversify their global partnerships to avoid over-reliance on any single partner by looking at other potential markets in South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, or Latin America.
Such diversification will enhance a more balanced posture in international relationships. African states also need to ensure regional integration through the African Union (AU) and the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) in order to enhance their bargaining power. The promotion of intra-African trade and investments through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will lessen external vulnerabilities and foster a self-sustaining economic ecosystem.
There is a need for African countries to improve their negotiation capacities with both China and the US, with an emphasis on local needs and development priorities. This should include more favourable terms of trade, less exploitative investments, and projects that are environmentally and socially sustainable.
As they seek foreign investments, the focus should be on sustainable development and inclusive growth. The priority should be on sectors with broad benefits, such as renewable energy, agriculture, and digital technologies, which should not come at a cost to environmental health or social welfare. To reduce concerns about debt sustainability, African countries need more robust debt management practices.
These include transparency in financial accounting, reasonable borrowing, and targeting loans for productivity-enhancing projects only. They should also participate in multilateral debt relief programmes in order to renegotiate unfavourable terms.
Ultimately, African states need to imbibe good governance principles, as these are crucial to achieving transparency, accountability, and responsive legal frameworks necessary for the protection of national interests and the overall growth and progress of the continent.
Colonel Suleiman Suleiman Muhammad is an international course member from Nigeria, attending the National Resilience Course at the National Centre for Defence Studies (PUSPAHANAS), Putrajaya.
The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of Twentytwo13.
