Who's ahead in the French election opinion polls?

French president Emmanuel Macron is fighting for his political future as the far-right continues to maintain a poll lead over the president's centrist alliance (called Ensemble).

Although Macron will remain president until the end of his term in 2027, a prime minister from another party will be able to begin enacting their own legislative agenda if his alliance loses the French parliamentary election.

The president called the snap vote after his Ensemble coalition was trounced in the European elections by Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party, which got twice as many votes as Macron.

The far-right has surged in the polls in recent weeks, and a centrist Macron is now faced with the unpleasant prospect of potentially needing to lead a 'cohabitation' government with political partners he is ideologically opposed to.

An opinion poll published in the newspaper Les Echos on Friday showed that National Rally might win as much as 37% of the popular vote. RN was up two percentage points from the last publication of the poll, compiled by OpinionWay a week ago, while Macron's centrist bloc, Ensemble, was seen reaching 20% of the popular vote, down two percentage points from the previous forecast.

The New Popular Front leftwing alliance was seen reaching 28% of the vote, a level unchanged compared with a week ago.

This followed a survey by leading French polling organisation Ifop-Fiducial published on 27 June, which found the far-right National Rally was on 36%, New Popular Front on 28.5% and Ensemble and its allies on 21%.

BFM TV, in a different poll compiled by Elabe, said RN could potentially cross the 289-seat mark for an absolute majority, placing the party and its allies in the range of 260-295 seats.

French legislative elections take place over two rounds. The top two parties, plus anyone else with more than 12.5% of the vote, will go through to the second round, where the party with the most votes will be declared victor.

Pollsters have warned the vote could be difficult to predict due to an uncertainty as to how people who back smaller parties in the first poll will vote in the second round. Turnout is expected to be high.

Since the election was announced Ensemble has seen a small bump in the polls when it started around 18%, but Macron's hope that he could turn his party's fortunes around appear to be fading.

Macron has been issuing dire warnings about the threat of the far-right since he dissolved parliament on 9 June. In his address to the nation announcing the snap election, he called the far-right and the rise of nationalism a threat to France, Europe and peace in the world. He also warned they would bring about the "impoverishment of the French people and the downfall of our country".

When are the elections?

The first vote in the two-round election will be held on 30 June, meaning there are just a few days left for campaigning. The second round will be held on 7 July.

In constituencies where no-one meets the threshold, the second round is held on 7 July and, this time, all parties that did not get at least 12.5% of registered votes in the previous contest cannot run again.

This system will likely result in many three-way contests between Ensemble, the left-wing alliance and National Rally.

Two-round elections are common in France. The president is elected in a similar manner, where if they do not get 50% of the vote in the first round the top two candidates in the first vote face off again in a run-off.

Why does this election matter so much?

The leader of the largest party in the election will become prime minister of France - a position Macron has very little power to influence and he will merely confirm the appointment. It appears almost guaranteed National Rally will win the election meaning the 28-year-old protege of Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, is the most likely candidate for PM.

National Rally's current polling put it just short of a majority needed to easily secure Bardella's appointment.

Having a prime minister from a different party to the president is a phenomenon known as 'cohabitation' in France. It can result in a different policy direction than the president and create clashes and instability in the government.

Whilst the president retains the lead on defence and military issues, the prime minister and government would have some say, leaving scope for sharp divisions in opinion and much depending on the personal dynamic between the two.

This instability and deadlock in the EU's second-largest economy and most powerful military would likely cause concern across the continent of Europe and beyond.

Macron's years of staunch pro-Europe stances has helped keep the EU steady during Brexit and the growth of the far-right across the continent. With eurosceptic National Rally having significant influence in French politics it may embolden other far-right eurosceptics in power in other European capitals to push for more in their agenda.

On top of the political instability caused by cohabitation, the symbolic power of a far-right PM in France would send shockwaves across Europe. With the far-right already in government in some capacity in Italy, the Netherlands, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Finland and Croatia it will feel like the dominoes are continuing to fall for the centre-left and centre-right parties that have dominated the EU since its creation.

Read more

• Tensions flare between far right, Macron camp ahead of France vote (AFP)

• In France's high-stakes legislative election, a Jewish candidate faces and fights hate and division (AP)

• Who is voting for the far right as French election nears? (Reuters)