Formula 1 United States Grand Prix betting preview: Lewis Hamilton is favored to win his 6th USGP
Can Lewis Hamilton retake the points lead at the United States Grand Prix?
Hamilton is favored to win Sunday’s race in Austin (2 p.m. ET, ABC) ahead of Max Verstappen. Hamilton enters as a -115 favorite while Verstappen is +140 to win the race. Valtteri Bottas, the winner at Turkey two weeks ago, is the No. 3 favorite at a distant +1200.
Bottas is the defending winner of the race. He won the 2019 race at COTA — there were no races in North America in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic — ahead of Hamilton in second and Verstappen in third. Hamilton has five wins in eight F1 races at the Austin track, but he hasn’t won since 2017.
COTA isn’t one of Verstappen’s best tracks. While he has four top-five finishes in five starts at COTA, he’s never won in the United States and has one second-place finish.
Verstappen enters the USGP with a six-point lead over Hamilton in the points standings. There’s a seven-point difference between first and second place, so Hamilton can regain the points lead with a win — as long as Verstappen doesn’t get the point for running the fastest lap.
Here are a few of our suggestions if you’re looking to bet on the race. You’ve got more time to bet F1 this weekend because all of the sessions are in the afternoon. Qualifying is at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday. All odds are via BetMGM.
Both Mercedes drivers will score points (-300)
This feels like free money. It’s going to take something wild for either Hamilton or Bottas to not score points on Sunday. We also like this same bet for McLaren (-200).
Kimi Raikkonen to finish ahead of Antonio Giovinazzi (-135)
Raikkonen won in 2018 at COTA and could get into the second round of qualifying. Giovinazzi has put in a solid season at Alfa Romeo, but we’re siding with Raikkonen in his final start at the track.
McLaren as the highest-finishing team outside Mercedes and Red Bull (+100)
Ferrari is the favorite in this bet to be the best of the rest at -110. But COTA seems more tailor-made for the McLaren cars with its long straightaways. Ferrari’s straight-line speed hasn’t been great throughout the season.
Valtteri Bottas to win FP1 (+250)
Bottas’ odds are third-best behind Hamilton and Verstappen. He started first in his 2019 win and should be fast again all weekend. It’s not going to be a shock in the slightest if he’s in the mix with Verstappen and Hamilton on Saturday and Sunday.
An all Mercedes and Red Bull top four (+350)
Let’s swing for the fences here. Sergio Perez is due for a decent run to back up Verstappen at some point this season. Maybe it happens this weekend.