The odds for the Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix (2 p.m. ET, ABC) are very unusual.
Max Verstappen has better than even odds to win the race after he cruised to victory in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Verstappen has won four of the last five F1 races as Red Bull has scored six wins in eight races so far this season.
Verstappen is at -110 at BetMGM to win in Montreal and those odds make a ton of sense. Red Bull should have the fastest car on the long straightaway sections of the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve.
But he’s not the favorite for the pole. That honor goes to Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc at -135. And guess what? Leclerc’s odds make sense too.
Leclerc has won the past four pole positions as he’s been able to keep the Red Bull cars at bay for a single lap. Though that speed hasn’t carried over for multiple laps. Leclerc’s inability to win in Baku on Sunday made him the first driver since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2002 to win four consecutive pole positions without winning a race.
Verstappen is at +250 to win the pole and is the No. 2 favorite behind Leclerc to start first. Conversely, Leclerc is the No. 2 favorite to win the race at +250. And Red Bull’s race pace has also brought Sergio Perez into the fray for both the pole and the race win. Perez is at +350 each for pole and the race win while no one else has odds better than +1000 in either category. Leclerc’s Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz is at +1000 for the pole and +1400 to win the race.
Here are a few of the bets that we like ahead of the race weekend. As a reminder, the North American race is Sunday afternoon instead of Sunday morning and is on broadcast television. It should rival the Miami Grand Prix as the most-watched race of the F1 season so far.
Max Verstappen to finish in the top six (-450)
There’s value to be had hedging Verstappen in the top six vs. the top three, even at these small odds. Verstappen is at -350 to finish in the top three while Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez’s odds shrink from -200 to finish in the top three to -400 or shorter to finish in the top six.
Verstappen and Perez won’t finish 1-2 (-185)
If you like the odds of the Red Bull drivers repeating their 1-2 finish from Baku, you can get them at +130. We’re going to bet on a changeup to the top two.
Fernando Alonso to beat Lando Norris (+120)
The McLaren was one of the slowest cars in a straight line in Baku while the Alpine was exceptionally fast. The switchback nature of the corners in Montreal and the long flat-out stretches would seemingly favor the Alpine and Alonso.
Carlos Sainz to beat Sergio Perez (+200)
We hit on Sainz losing out to George Russell in Baku. Why not bet on a rebound in Canada? The curse of the second Red Bull car may still exist and if it does, then Perez is due for something fluky to happen.
Nicholas Latifi to beat Alex Albon (+250)
Latifi has been slow and could be in his final season in Formula 1. He’s the only driver to start every race and not score a point so far. But this is his home Grand Prix so why not take a flier on him finishing higher than his Williams teammate?