Energy trilemma: Forging Asean cooperation

In the beginning, it was just energy security. Every nation aspired to secure its energy resources for the years to come with no or minimal disruption.

Energy equity came as the world developed, poverty was reduced, and energy consumption increased. Over the decades, the world has become more interconnected, and environmental sustainability due to energy production has become a key issue.

These three facets – energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability – are known as the energy trilemma. Together with the Conference of the Parties (COP) agenda, Net Zero Emissions 2050 (NZE), and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), addressing the balance of the energy trilemma has become increasingly pressing, and the Asean region must embark on renewable energy swiftly.

According to the World Energy Council (WEC) Energy Trilemma Index 2023, the Asean member states’ rankings vary from 31 to 88 out of 126 countries measured. Laos was not ranked due to a time lag in its national data collection. Analysing the Asean member states through their energy trilemma profiles reveals three statuses: vulnerability of energy security, slow progress in energy equity, and the slow transition to renewable energy.

Only two countries scored an overall A, the highest ranking for the energy trilemma index: Malaysia and Singapore. However, both countries still need improvement in one or more dimensions of the energy trilemma. Singapore cannot upgrade its energy security score from D (the lowest) due to insufficient space within the country for energy resources and a lack of resources.

Conversely, Malaysia is well-secured but needs to improve its scores in energy equity and environmental sustainability, rated B and C, respectively. Brunei faces a similar issue as Singapore, as it lacks space to produce energy independently, impacting its energy security score.

Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines sit in the middle bracket of the Asean Energy Trilemma ranking, with an overall index score of C. These countries have two or more scores that require improvement. Cambodia and Myanmar are the lowest-ranked, with an overall score of D. Overall, only Singapore and Malaysia are classified in the highest grade of the energy trilemma index, Brunei in the second tier, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines in the third tier, and Cambodia and Myanmar in the fourth tier.

Although Cambodia and Myanmar are in the fourth tier, their energy security score is better due to an abundance of green energy resources. While Laos is not measured, its rivers provide a landscape suitable for hydroelectric energy generation. Examining energy trilemma scores for other Asean member states reveals similar findings. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that all Asean member states are interdependent in balancing their energy trilemma. In other words, the energy trilemma of any member state of Asean reflects the energy trilemma of Asean itself.

This unique situation in Asean’s energy trilemma poses challenges for the region to achieve the global aspirations outlined by COP, NZE, and SDGs.

Out of these challenges, opportunities can be exploited by Asean member states, either individually or as a region. Given the varying advantages and disadvantages of each Asean member state, they could work together to compensate for each other’s weaknesses by leveraging their strengths. Geographically, Malaysia is positioned centrally in what could be considered the energy highway of Asean.

Conceptually, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam could invest in developing hydroelectric power generation using the great rivers of Irrawaddy, Salween, Chao Phraya, Mekong, and Red rivers. Using the energy highway, they could supply energy to resource-scarce Singapore, while supporting the energy reserves of Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and the Philippines. Who becomes a provider or consumer may vary, but the key is for Asean member states to work collaboratively to balance their energy trilemma as a region rather than individually. Therefore, forging regional cooperation is the most sensible solution for Asean to address the regional energy trilemma index.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its 2023 World Energy Outlook, reported that energy demand growth in Asean countries outpaced the global average and will continue to do so. Asean experiences the second-highest energy demand growth globally, after India, until 2050, driven by an increasing population, rising living standards, and rapid urbanisation. According to IEA, Asean is likely to transition from a net energy exporter to a net importer by 2050. Predictions include a 40 per cent increase in oil demand, almost a 60 per cent increase in natural gas consumption, a one-third drop in oil production, and stable gas production. Coal alone accounts for almost 40 per cent of energy demand growth, overtaking gas in the electricity mix.

These factors, alongside the need for greener energy production, could become problematic if not addressed promptly. Twenty-five years is a relatively short period to develop new infrastructure for energy production.

The Asean Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) is Asean’s framework for cooperation in the energy sector and represents a blueprint within the Asean Economic Community (AEC) implementation framework. Addressing climate change, environmental sustainability, and achieving COP, NZE, and SDG goals within the stipulated time frame has amplified APAEC’s importance. Since its launch in 1999, APAEC is believed to have progressively improved Asean’s energy trilemma balance and mitigated issues related to the region potentially becoming a net importer.

Four series of APAEC have been implemented: APAEC 1999-2004, 2004-2009, 2010-2015, and 2016-2025 (implemented in two phases: Phase I 2016-2020, and Phase II 2021-2025). Seven programmes are listed under APAEC: Asean Power Grid (APG), Trans Asean Gas Pipeline (TAGP), Coal and Clean Coal Technology, Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EE&C), Renewable Energy (RE), Regional Energy Policy and Planning (REPP), and Civilian Nuclear Energy (CNE).

The APG has been the most successful APAEC programme. As of August 2020, the first multilateral power trade was successfully initiated, using the APG to connect Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore with 30.2 GWh of electricity traded. TAGP, as of 2020, links six Asean member states through 13 interconnection pipelines covering 3,631km. There are also nine LNG regasification terminals (RGT) with a combined capacity of 38.75 MTPA.

The CCT programme focuses on capacity-building measures to encourage member states to invest more in technology. In the EE&C programme, Asean achieved a 21 per cent reduction in energy use by 2018, surpassing its 2020 target of a 20 per cent reduction.

In terms of RE, Asean increased its share in the total primary energy supply (TPES) mix to 13.9 per cent by 2018, though efforts must be doubled to reach the target of 23 per cent by 2025. The REPP and CNE programmes focus more on capacity building through seminars, workshops, and discussions.

Malaysia will assume the Asean Chair for 2025 from Jan 1 to Dec 31. While one year is a short period to effect significant changes in APAEC, Malaysia’s central position in Asean offers a strategic advantage for establishing vital links in the Asean energy network. According to the National Energy Transition Roadmap 2022-2040 (NETR), Malaysia’s TPES comprises 42.4 per cent natural gas, 27.3 per cent crude oil and petroleum products, and 26.4 per cent coal.

Renewable energy (RE), mainly from hydroelectric, solar, and bioenergy, constitutes only 3.9 per cent of the total. The government’s NETR aims to increase RE capacity from 40 per cent in 2035 to 70 per cent by 2050, and an export ban on RE has been lifted to facilitate cross-border trade.

Malaysia should leverage its Asean Chairmanship in 2025 to integrate its RE contributions into APAEC. Speeding up the NETR process would allow Malaysia to secure a larger role within APAEC.

Since APAEC’s inception, Asean energy cooperation has primarily focused on the APG and TAGP programmes. Despite slow progress due to various challenges, the achievements of APAEC over 25 years have been foundational for its continuation. Preparation for the launch of APAEC 2026-2035, Phase 1 2026-2030, reflects Asean’s commitment to achieving the SDGs within the designated timeline.

APAEC, as Asean’s forged regional cooperation on energy, is Asean’s collective response to balancing the energy trilemma, whether individually or as a region.

First Admiral Ahmad Sapuan Fathi Muhammad is a senior officer in the Royal Malaysian Navy and is currently attending the National Resilience College, PUSPAHANAS Putrajaya.