Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

UPDATED: May 25, 2023

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Weekly Commentary: Only two Latina actresses have ever been nominated in the lead comedy actress category in Emmy history — Rita Moreno (“9 to 5” in 1983) and America Ferrera (“Ugly Betty” in 2007 and 2008). Ferrera is the only winner for the first season of her classic series.

This year, we have two impeccably talented Latina contenders on the bubble that could receive recognition — Selena Gomez as the dry-witted Mabel from the sophomore season of “Only Murders in the Building” and Jenna Ortega as the titular deadpan teenager from Netflix’s prequel series “Wednesday.”

It would be the first time two Latinas have been recognized in the same acting category and only the third occurrence of any Latino in any acting category in the 75 years of Emmy history. The two previous times were in 2018 with John Leguizamo (“Waco”), Ricky Martin and Édgar Ramírez (“The Assassination Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”) nominated as supporting actor (limited) and the following year in 2019 when Benicio del Toro (“Escape at Dannemora”) and the historic win of Jharrel Jerome (“When They See Us”) took hold in lead actor (limited).

Gomez, the influential superstar of Hulu’s hit series, was unfortunately omitted from the lead comedy actress last year. However, Gomez is even better in the second season, improving her chances.

A season three boost won’t help this time after Variety exclusively revealed “Only Murders in the Building” season 3 will return on Aug. 8, which comes after nominations are announced.

For Ortega, her star has skyrocketed with viral moments from the series and an impressive hosting stint on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” earlier this season.

While her brutally honest interviews about changing scripts for “Wednesday” could put some voters off, there’s no denying she’s the breakout of the year; along with a box office smash film with “Scream 6,” she could be an easy selection for not-so media plugged-in voters.

A seemingly less competitive race for lead comedy actress and the omission from last year’s winner Jean Smart (“Hacks”) give the two talented women a considerable edge to land one of the likely six coveted slots.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

1. Quinta Brunson — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

2. Rachel Brosnahan — “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)

3. Natasha Lyonne — “Poker Face” (Peacock)

4. Bridget Everett — “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)

5. Christina Applegate — “Dead to Me” (Netflix)

6. Elle Fanning — “The Great” (Hulu)

Next in Line

1. Selena Gomez — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

2. Jenna Ortega — “Wednesday” (Netflix)

3. Kerry Washington — “Unprisoned” (Hulu)

4. Robin Thede — “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

1. Linda Cardellini — “Dead to Me” (Netflix)

2. Amy Schumer — “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)

3. Natasia Demtriou — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

4. Tatiana Maslany — “She-Hulk: Attorney at Law” (Disney+)

5. Maya Rudolph — “Loot” (Apple TV+)

6. Ana Gasteyer — “American Auto” (Peacock)

7. Heléne Yorke — “The Other Two” (HBO)

8. Cecily Strong — “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)

9. Devery Jacobs — “Reservation Dogs” (FX)

10. Rose McIver — “Ghosts” (CBS)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**

• Quinta Brunson — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

• Sara Gilbert — “The Conners” (ABC)

• Wendi McLendon-Covey — “The Goldbergs” (ABC)

• Caitlin McGee — “Home Economics” (ABC)

• Maya Rudolph — “Loot” (Apple TV+)

• Charlotte Nicdao — “Mythic Quest” (Apple TV+)

• Rose Byrne — “Physical” (Apple TV+)

• Cecily Strong — “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV+)

• Folake Olowofoyeku — “Bob Hearts Abishola” (CBS)

• Rose McIver — “Ghosts” (CBS)

• Ginger Gonzaga — “True Lies” (CBS)

• Awkwafina — “Nora From Queens” (Comedy Central)

• Tatiana Maslany — “She-Hulk: Attorney at Law” (Disney+)

• Mayim Bialik — “Call Me Kat” (Fox)

• Yara Shahidi — “Grown-ish” (Freeform)

• Martha Plimpton — “Sprung” (Freevee)

• Devery Jacobs — “Reservation Dogs” (FX)

• Natasia Demetriou — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

• Robin Thede — “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)

• Sarah Lancashire — “Julia” (HBO)

• Heléne Yorke — “The Other Two” (HBO)

• Bridget Everett — “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)

• Elle Fanning — “The Great” (Hulu)

• Hilary Duff — “How I Met Your Father” (Hulu)

• Selena Gomez — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

• Mae Whitman — “Up Here” (Hulu)

• Ana Gasteyer — “American Auto” (NBC)

• Mayan Lopez — “Lopez vs. Lopez” (NBC)

• Melissa Rauch — “Night Court” (NBC)

• Melissa Fumero — “Blockbuster” (Netflix)

• Christina Applegate — “Dead to Me” (Netflix)

• Linda Cardellini — “Dead to Me” (Netflix)

• Lily Collins — “Emily in Paris” (Netflix)

• Jenna Ortega — “Wednesday” (Netflix)

• Marisa Davila — “Grease: Rise of the Pink Ladies” (Paramount+)

• Amy Schumer — “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)

• Natasha Lyonne — “Poker Face” (Peacock)

• Cristin Milioti — “The Resort” (Peacock)

• Meagan Good — “Harlem” (Prime Video)

• Chanté Adams — “A League of Their Own” (Prime Video)

• Abbi Jacobsen — “A League of Their Own” (Prime Video)

• Melia Kreiling — “Mammals” (Prime Video)

• Rachel Brosnahan — “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)

** This official list and category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Jean Smart — “Hacks” (HBO) — Season 2

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

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