Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series – Can Bill Hader Win His Third Acting Award for ‘Barry’?

·7-min read
.
.

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

More from Variety

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUB
To see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES
For film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB

UPDATED: May 12, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

After an unprecedented incident at CinemaCon where Jason Sudeikis’ former fiancée was served with custody documents during her presentation of her upcoming film “Don’t Worry Darling,” the chatter has been palpable on the social media and in industry circles. The Emmy winner of “Ted Lasso” released a statement saying he “had no prior knowledge” that Wilde would be served during her presentation. However, has the damage already been done to his awards campaign?

Media (and Hollywood) always have short-term memories regarding incidents, and while another former couple airs each other’s dirty laundry in court (Johnny Depp and Amber Heard), this incident may take the backseat in the weeks leading up to nomination voting.

Nonetheless, this could offer an opening for Bill Hader to climb the charts with the third season of “Barry,” receiving outstanding reviews. The double brilliance of Steve Martin and Martin Short for “Only Murders in the Building” could be an undeniable pairing for lead noms (as long as the duo doesn’t split votes).

Could “Atlanta” be “too late” for Donald Glover to come back to the race? With default Emmy favorites like Anthony Anderson (“Black-ish”), Don Cheadle (“Black Monday”) and Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”) on the bubble, it could make a difference.

Let’s not forget the possibility for a few newcomers such as Sam Richardson for “The Afterparty” or an overdue citation for Kayvan Novak and/or Matt Berry from “What We Do in the Shadows.”

More contenders are to be added over the next few weeks.

Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

The Emmy eligibility period runs from June 1, 2021, to May 31, 2022. The deadline for entering programs for Primetime programming and uploading all entry materials is on May 12, 2022, at 6:00 PM PT.

The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.

The list of programs and potential nominees listed below is incomplete and is subject to change. The full television awards season calendar is linked here.

2021 category winner: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

Only Murders In the Building Hulu Episode 1
Only Murders In the Building Hulu Episode 1

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

RANK

CONTENDER

SERIES

NETWORK

1

Jason Sudeikis

“Ted Lasso”

Apple TV+

2

Bill Hader

“Barry”

HBO/HBO Max

3

Steve Martin

“Only Murders in the Building”

Hulu

4

Martin Short

“Only Murders in the Building”

Hulu

5

Donald Glover

“Atlanta”

FX

6

Anthony Anderson

“Black-ish”

ABC

NEXT IN LINE

7

Don Cheadle

“Black Monday”

Showtime

8

Larry David

“Curb Your Enthusiasm”

HBO/HBO Max

9

Sam Richardson

“The Afterparty”

Apple TV+

10

Kayvan Novak

“What We Do in the Shadows”

FX

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

11

Nicholas Hoult

“The Great”

Hulu

12

Kenan Thompson

“Kenan”

NBC

13

Will Arnett

“Murderville”

Netflix

14

Matt Berry

“What We Do in the Shadows”

FX

15

Danny McBride

“The Righteous Gemstones”

HBO

16

William Zabka

“Cobra Kai”

Netflix

17

Utkarsh Abmbudkar

“Ghosts”

CBS

18

Ted Danson

“Mr. Mayor”

NBC

19

Ralph Macchio

“Cobra Kai”

Netflix

20

Andy Samberg

“Brooklyn Nine-Nine”

NBC

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Greg Kinnear

“Shining Vale”

Starz

22

Will Forte

“MacGruber”

Peacock

23

Dave Burd

“Dave”

FX

24

Keegan-Michael Key

“Schmigadoon!”

Apple TV+

25

John Cena

“Peacemaker”

HBO/HBO Max

26

John Goodman

“The Conners”

ABC

27

Ricky Gervais

“After Life”

Netflix

28

Rhys Darby

“Our Flag Means Death”

HBO/HBO Max

29

Drew Tarver

“The Other Two”

Comedy Central

30

Michael Cimino

“Love, Victor”

Hulu

UNRANKED CONTENDERS

Alan Tudyk

“Resident Alien”

Syfy

Asa Butterfield

“Sex Education”

Netflix

Craig Robinson

“Killing It”

Peacock

DeRon Horton

“Dear White People”

Netflix

Elisha Williams

“The Wonder Years”

ABC

Eugenio Derbez

“Acapulco”

Apple TV+

Iain Armitage

“Young Sheldon”

CBS

Jake Johnson

“Minx”

HBO/HBO Max

Joseph Gordon-Levitt

“Mr. Corman”

Apple TV+

Josh Gad

“Wolf Like Me”

Peacock

Keir Gilchrist

“Atypical”

Netflix

Mark Indelicato

“With Love”

Amazon Prime Video

Michael Rapaport

“Atypical”

Netflix

Mike Myers

“The Pentaverate”

Netflix

Rafe Spall

“Trying”

Apple TV+

Robbie Amell

“Upload”

Amazon Prime Video

Stephen Merchant

“The Outlaws”

Amazon Prime Video

Christopher Walken

“The Outlaws”

Amazon Prime Video

Topher Grace

“Home Economics”

ABC

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actor Comedy)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television's most prestigious artistic award. There are many records held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.

For wins: Four actors have won the most prizes in this category, with four in all of Emmy history - Michael J. Fox, Kelsey Grammer, Carroll O'Connor and Jim Parsons. Fox and O'Connor have won three consecutive years. Except for Fox, Grammer ("Frasier"), O'Connor ("All in the Family") and Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") won for the same television series. Fox won three for "Family Ties" and the other for "Spin City." Four men have three times - Don Adams, John Lithgow, Tony Shalhoub and Dick Van Dyke.

For nominations: Ted Danson has the most nominations ever in this category with 14 (winning twice for "Cheers"). Alan Alda and Kelsey Grammer are next in line with 11, while Michael J. Fox, Carroll O'Connor and Tony Shalhoub have eight each.

John Goodman, Matt LeBlanc and Hal Linden have the most nominations without ever winning for lead actor in a comedy series. Goodman ("Roseanne") and Linden ("Barney Miller") were all nominated for the same series. LeBlanc's nods are split between "Friends" (3) and "Episodes" (4).

"Cheers" and "M*A*S*H" are the leading series with nominations in this category, with 11 with "Frasier" and "The Odd Couple" (1970-1975) nabbing 10. NBC has won this category the most for any network with 26, while CBS and ABC have 19 and 11 wins. Amazon Prime Video is the first and only streaming platform to win this category for Jeffrey Tambor ("Transparent") in two consecutive years.

2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

  • Outstanding Television Movie

  • Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

  • Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

  • Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Outstanding Reality Host

  • Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series

  • Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series

  • Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

  • Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

  • Outstanding Animated Program

  • Outstanding Short Form Animated Program

  • Outstanding Voice-Over Performance

  • Outstanding Narrator

  • Outstanding Structured Program

  • Outstanding Unstructured Program

  • Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series

  • Outstanding Documentary Special

  • Outstanding Documentary Filmmaking

  • Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special

  • Outstanding Main Title Design

  • Outstanding Main Title Theme Music

  • Outstanding Music for Series

  • Outstanding Music for Limited Series

  • Outstanding Music and Lyrics

  • Outstanding Music Supervision

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes - Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

  • The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.

Best of Variety

Sign up for Variety’s Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.

Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting