Emmy Predictions: Drama Series – How Far Will Paramount Network’s ‘Yellowstone’ Go at the Emmys?

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

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UPDATED: June 23, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

There are 171 television drama series vying for eight slots at the Primetime Emmy Awards. In 2021, we saw 133 submissions, down from 197 in 2020, but that was mostly due to the entertainment industry halting productions due to the pandemic.

Two series not on the list – Epix’s “Godfather of Harlem” and Amazon Prime’s now-canceled “I Know What You Did Last Summer.”

The incumbent winner, “The Crown” from Netflix, which became the second show to sweep all the major categories in Emmys history (the first was Pop TV’s “Schitt’s Creek” the year prior in comedy), is not eligible this year. The only returning nominees on the ballot are Netflix’s “Bridgerton” and NBC’s final season of “This Is Us.” A nominee last year, Amazon Prime Video’s “The Boys,” which debuted on June 3, will be eligible for Emmys 2023. After a gap year, HBO’s 2020 winner “Succession” is back and seems to be frontrunning in several categories. Other returning nominees are AMC’s “Better Call Saul,” BBC America’s “Killing Eve” and Netflix’s double-header of “Ozark” and “Stranger Things.”

Catching the entire industry and Netflix by surprise, “Squid Game” became the most-watched series in the streamer’s history. It’s likely more history will be made with it becoming the first non-English-language show to be nominated, along with the various acting noms it’s sure to pull in. Coming off the sweep for “The Crown” last year, how far can Netflix take it in the race?

Two years ago, the second season of “Succession” walked away with the outstanding drama series category, and after winning the Critics Choice and SAG-AFTRA prizes for its third season, it looks to be the frontrunner at the Emmys. With HBO/HBO Max establishing itself in the post-Warner-Discovery merger, can they stay aligned to bring it over the finish line?

The first half of the final season of AMC’s “Better Call Saul” is nearing its end, with many of its stars, including Rhea Seehorn and Giancarlo Esposito, stepping behind the camera. As star Bob Odenkirk’s run for his overdue lead actor drama statuette continues, the show could get some of the final season jitters that can affect TV Academy voters.

Broken into two halves, the final season of Netflix’s “Ozark” has dominated the streamer’s top 10 charts for weeks since dropping. With Emmy acting contenders Jason Bateman, Laura Linney and Julia Garner heavily in the discussion, its spot among the eight seems nearly guaranteed. The question will be, can it go all the way?

Apple TV+ won on the comedy side of the Emmys last year with “Ted Lasso” and it may have its strongest contender yet with “Severance,” the dystopian series that boasts an all-star cast including Adam Scott, Patricia Arquette and John Turturro. After winning the Oscar for “CODA,” can the streamer take both top industry prizes in the same year? It’s a definite possibility.

After stumbling for the past few years, Showtime has come roaring back with “Yellowjackets,” the incredible and evocative drama series. With an all-star female cast, which includes veterans and newcomers, the groundwork laid in the first season by emulating past favorites such as “Lost,” it could blow the doors off the Emmy crowd.

. - Credit: HBO
. - Credit: HBO

HBO

Although star Zendaya made history as the youngest lead actress drama winner ever for the HBO’s “Euphoria,” the show itself was snubbed across the board, something that people still remember and are keen to correct with the second season. Taking on serious subject matter, it captured the zeitgeist in a substantial way.

After a long hiatus, “Stranger Things,” the smash hit series from the Duffer brothers has finally returned with its infectious cast as well as its engaging and mysterious storyline.. The Netflix show has always represented the populist choice among consumers, but has it been gone too long, with so many shows making returns after long pauses due to COVID?

Representing for broadcast television across the board, the NBC tearjerker “This Is Us” has come to its end. Fans are emotional about saying goodbye and that likely includes TV Academy voters. As broadcast and cable continue to fight to stay relevant in the streaming age, can the show with one of the best ensembles in decades send a message by winning TV’s most coveted prize?

The Western genre is making a comeback, and one of the most prominent is “Yellowstone,” the soapy Paramount Network series that’s leading the way. The hurdle will be that despite the buzz that has been palpable for the Taylor Sheridan show as it contends for its third season, how many TV Academy voters will give it the time to “catch up” in time? Stars including Kevin Costner will surely help clear that boundary.

Also, keep an eye on HBO’s “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” to make a bigger impact.

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.

The list of programs and potential nominees listed below is incomplete and is subject to change. The full television awards season calendar is linked here.

2021 category winner: “The Crown” (Netflix)

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

. - Credit: Warrick Page/HBO
. - Credit: Warrick Page/HBO

Warrick Page/HBO

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

RANK

SERIES

NETWORK

PRODUCER(S)

1

“Succession”

HBO

Jesse Armstrong, Adam McKay, Will Ferrell, Frank Rich, Kevin Messick, Mark Mylod, Jane Tranter, Tony Roche, Scott Ferguson, Jon Brown, Lucy Prebble, Will Tracy

2

“Squid Game”

Netflix

Hwang Dong-hyuk, Kim Jiyeon

3

“Ozark”

Netflix

Jason Bateman, Bill Dubuque, Patrick Markey, Chris Mundy, Mark Williams, Matthew Spiegel, Paul Kolsby, John Shiban, Laura Deeley, Wes Hagan, Laura Linney, Dana Scott, Ning Zhou, Juanita Diana Feeney, David Manson, Peter Thorell, Tudor Jones

4

“Yellowjackets”

Showtime

Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, Bart Nickerson, Drew Comins, Karyn Kusama, Liz Phang, Jamie Travis, Brad Van Arragon, Jamie Travis, Sarah L. Thompson, Ameni Rozsa, Ani Arutyunyan

5

“Severance”

Apple TV+

Ben Stiller, Nicholas Weinstock, Jackie Cohn, Mark Friedman, Dan Erickson, Andrew Colville, Chris Black, John Cameron, Adam Scott, Patricia Arquette, Aoife McArdle, Amanda Overton, Gerry Robert Byrne

6

“This Is Us”

NBC

Dan Fogelman, Jess Rosenthal, Donald Todd, Ken Olin, Charlie Gogolak, John Requa, Glenn Ficarra, Isaac Aptaker, Elizabeth Berger, Kay Oyegun

7

“Yellowstone”

Paramount Network

John Linson, Art Linson, Taylor Sheridan, Kevin Costner, David C. Glasser, John Vohlers, Michael Polaire

8

“Stranger Things”

Netflix

The Duffer Brothers, Shawn Levy, Dan Cohen, Cindy Holland, Brian Wright, Matt Thunell, Karl Gajdusek, Iain Paterson, Curtis Gwinn

NEXT IN LINE

9

“Better Call Saul”

AMC

Vince Gilligan, Peter Gould, Mark Johnson, Melissa Bernstein, Thomas Schnauz, Gennifer Hutchison, Diana Mercer, Alison Tatlock, Michael Morris, Bob Odenkirk, Nina Jack, Diane Mercer, Robin Sweet, Gordon Smith, Jonathan Glatzer

10

“Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty”

HBO

Adam McKay, Kevin Messick, Max Borenstein, Scott Stephens, Jim Hecht, Jason Schuman, Rodney Barnes, Doug Ornstein, Bruce Dunn

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

11

“Euphoria”

HBO

Sam Levinson, Kevin Turen, Ravi Nandan, Drake, Adel “Future” Nur, Ron Leshem, Daphna Levin, Hadas Mozes Lichtenstein, Gary Lennon, Mirit Toovi, Tmira Yardeni, Yoram Mokadi, Jim Kleverweis, Zendaya, Will Greenfield, Ashley Levinson, Hunter Schafer, Tyler Romary, Philipp A. Barnett, Jamie Feldman, Kenneth Yu, Harrison Kreiss

12

“Bridgerton”

Netflix

Shonda Rhimes, Betsy Beers, Chris Van Dusen, Julie Anne Robinson, Sarada McDermott, Holden Chang, Sarah Dollard

13

“Outer Range”

Amazon Prime Video

Zev Borow, Josh Brolin, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Brad Pitt, Heather Rae, Brian Watkins, Amy Seimetz, Robin Sweet, Lawrence Trilling, Tony Krantz, Trevor Baker, Andrew Balek, Naledi Jackson, Lucy Thurber

14

“The Morning Show”

Apple TV+

Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, Kerry Ehrin, Michael Ellenberg, Mimi Leder, Kristin Hahn, Lauren Levy Neustadter

15

“Pachinko”

Apple TV+

Soo Hugh, Michael Ellenberg, Lindsey Springer, Theresa Kang-Lowe, Richard Middleton, Kogonada, Justin Chon, Brian Sherwin, Jordan Murcia, Lynne Bespflug

16

“The Gilded Age”

HBO

Julian Fellowes, Gareth Neame, David Crockett, Michael Engler, Salli Richardson-Whitfield

17

“Loki”

Disney+

Kevin Feige, Louis D’Esposito, Victoria Alonso, Stephen Broussard, Tom Hiddleston, Kate Herron, Michael Waldron

18

“Killing Eve”

BBC America

Sally Woodward Gentle, Lee Morris, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Emerald Fennell, Gina Mingacci, Damon Thomas, Punit Kulkarni, Sandra Oh, Colin Wratten, Elinor Day

19

“Slow Horses”

Apple TV+

Iain Canning, Hakan Kousetta, Jamie Laurenson, Gail Mutrux, Emile Sherman, Will Smith, Douglas Urbanski, Graham Yost, Jane Robertson

20

“Evil”

Paramount+

Liz Glotzer, Robert King, Michelle King, Rockne S. O’Bannon, Benedict Fitzgerald, Robyn-Alain Feldman, Aurin Squire, Patricia Ione Lloyd, Thomas J. Whelan

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

“The Book of Boba Fett”

Disney+

Jon Favreau, Dave Filoni, Robert Rodriguez, Kathleen Kennedy, Colin Wilson, John Bartnicki

22

“Bel-Air”

Peacock

TJ Brady & Rasheed Newson, Morgan Cooper, Will Smith, Terence Carter, James Lassiter, Miguel Melendez, Malcolm Spellman, Benny Medina, Quincy Jones, Andy Borowitz & Susan Borowitz, Anthony Sparks, Debra Lovatelli, Jeff Rafner, Jason B. Harkins

23

“The Man Who Fell to Earth”

Showtime

Alex Kurtzman, Jenny Lumet, John Hlavin, Sarah Timberman, Carl Beverly, Heather Kadin, Aaron Baiers, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Rola Bauer, Françoise Guyonnet, Kate DiMento, Chris Leanza, Michael Alaimo, Jason Zimmerman, John Lopez, Jane Maggs, Adrian Kelly, Helen Shang, Bill Wolkoff

24

“Nine Perfect Strangers”

Hulu

Samantha Strauss, John-Henry Butterworth, Molly Allen, Melissa McCarthy, Liane Moriarty, Jonathan Levine, Jodi Matterson, Steve Hutensky, Bruna Papandrea, Nicole Kidman, Per Saari, David E. Kelley, Gillian Bohrer, Barbara Gibbs

25

“As We See It”

Amazon Prime Video

Jason Katims, Jeni Mulein, Danna Stern

26

“The Good Fight”

Paramount+

Robert King, Michelle King, Phil Alden Robinson, Ridley Scott, David W. Zucker, Liz Glotzer, Brooke Kennedy, Alison Scott, William M. Finkelstein, Jacquelyn Reingold, Jonathan Tolins, Jordan Sheehan, Davita Scarlett, Aurin Squire, Nancy Hermann, Tegan Shohet, Alison Cross

27

“Outlander”

Starz

Ronald D. Moore, Jim Kohlberg, Andy Harries, Maril Davis, Ira Steven Behr, Toni Graphia, Anne Kenney, Matthew B. Roberts, Marigo Kehoe

28

“61st Street”

AMC

Peter Moffat, Michael B. Jordan, Alana Mayo, Hilary Salmon, Courtney B. Vance, J. David Shanks

29

“From”

Epix

Rola Bauer, Lindsay Dunn, Michael Wright, Nancy Cotton, Anthony and Joe Russo, Mike Larocca, Jack Bender, John Griffin, Jeff Pinkner, Josh Appelbaum, André Nemec, Scott Rosenberg

30

“The Cleaning Lady”

Fox

Stewart Lyons, Joe Lotito, Rose Marie Vega, Paola Suárez, Shay Mitchell, David Dean Portelli, Michael Offer, Miranda Kwok, Melissa Carter

UNRANKED CONTENDERS

“4400”

The CW

To be added

“9-1-1: Lonestar”

Fox

To be added

“9-1-1”

Fox

To be added

“A House Divided”

ALLBLK

To be added

“A Million Little Things”

ABC

To be added

“All American Homecoming”

The CW

To be added

“All American”

The CW

To be added

“All Creatures Great and Small (MASTERPIECE)

PBS

To be added

“American Rust”

Showtime

To be added

“Animal Kingdom”

TNT

To be added

“Another Life”

Netflix

To be added

“Archive 81”

Netflix

To be added

“Batwoman”

The CW

To be added

“Big Sky”

ABC

To be added

“Billions”

Showtime

Perri Kipperman, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Ben Mezrich, ELi Attie, Beth Schacter, Theo Travers, Mike Harrop, April Taylor, Adam R. Perlman, Brian Koppelman, David Levien

“Billy the Kid”

Epix

To be added

“Black Mafia Family”

Starz

To be added

“Blue Bloods”

CBS

To be added

“BMF”

Starz

Curtis Jackson, Randy Huggins, Terri Kopp, Anthony Wilson, Anne Clements

“Bosch: Legacy”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“Chapelwaite”

Epix

To be added

“Charmed”

The CW

To be added

“Chicago Fire”

NBC

To be added

“Chicago Med”

NBC

To be added

“Chicago P.D.”

NBC

To be added

“Chucky”

Syfy

To be added

“Claws”

TBS

To be added

“Cowboy Bebop”

Netflix

To be added

“CSI: Vegas”

CBS

To be added

“D.C.’s Legends of Tomorrow”

The CW

To be added

“D.C.’s Stargirl”

The CW

To be added

“Dan Brown’s The Lost Symbol”

Peacock

To be added

“David Makes Man”

OWN

To be added

“Dexter: New Blood”

Showtime

Clyde Phillips, Scott Reynolds, Michael C. Hall, Marcos Siega, Bill Carraro, John Goldwyn, Sara Colleton, Veronica West, Tony Saltzman, Warren Hsu Leonard, Judson Schwartz

“Doom Patrol”

HBO

To be added

“Dynasty”

The CW

To be added

“Fantasy Island”

Fox

To be added

“FBI: International”

NBC

To be added

“FBI: Most Wanted”

NBC

To be added

“FBI”

NBC

To be added

“Flack”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“Foundation”

Apple TV+

To be added

“Gentleman Jack”

HBO

To be added

“Goliath”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“Good Sam”

CBS

To be added

“Good Trouble”

Freeform

To be added

“Gossip Girl”

HBO

To be added

“Grey’s Anatomy”

ABC

To be added

“Halo”

Paramount+

Steven Spielberg, Steven Kane, Darryl Frank, Justin Falvey, Otto Bathurst, Toby Leslie,
Kyle Killen, Scott Pennington, Kiki Wolfkill, Frank O’Connor, Bonnie Ross

“Hanna”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“Heels”

Starz

To be added

“Hightown”

Starz

To be added

“Home Before Dark”

Apple TV+

To be added

“In the Dark”

The CW

To be added

“Invasion”

Apple TV+

To be added

“Joe Pickett”

Spectrum

To be added

“Kevin Can F**k Himself”

AMC

To be added

“Kung Fu”

The CW

To be added

“La Brea”

NBC

To be added

“Law & Order: Organized Crime”

NBC

To be added

“Law & Order: Special Victims Unit”

NBC

To be added

“Law & Order”

NBC

To be added

“Legacies”

The CW

To be added

“Locke & Key”

Netflix

To be added

“Long Slow Exhale”

Spectrum/BET

To be added

“Lost in Space”

Netflix

To be added

“Lucifer”

Netflix

To be added

“Magnum P.I.”

CBS

To be added

“Mayans M.C.”

FX

To be added

“Mayor of Kingstown”

Paramount+

To be added

“Motherland: Fort Salem”

Freeform

To be added

“My Brilliant Friend: Those Who Leave And Those Who Stay”

HBO

To be added

“Nancy Drew”

The CW

To be added

“Naomi”

The CW

To be added

“NCIS: Hawai’i”

CBS

To be added

“NCIS: Los Angeles”

CBS

To be added

“NCIS”

CBS

To be added

“New Amsterdam”

NBC

To be added

“Night Sky”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“One of Us Is Lying”

Peacock

To be added

“Ordinary Joe”

NBC

To be added

“Our Kind of People”

Fox

To be added

“Outer Banks”

Netflix

To be added

“Pieces of Her”

Netflix

To be added

“Power Book II: Ghost”

Starz

To be added

“Power Book III: Raising Kanan”

Starz

To be added

“Power Book IV: Force”

Starz

To be added

“Promised Land”

ABC

To be added

“Queen Sugar”

OWN

To be added

“Queens”

ABC

To be added

“Raised by Wolves”

HBO

To be added

“Reacher”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“Riverdale”

The CW

To be added

“Roswell, New Mexico”

The CW

To be added

“S.W.A.T.”

CBS

To be added

“Seal Team”

Paramount+

Spencer Hudnut, Christopher Chulack, Sarah Timberman, Carl Beverly and David Boreanaz

“See”

Apple TV+

To be added

“Servant”

Apple TV+

To be added

“Sex/Life”

Netflix

To be added

“Shining Girls”

Apple TV+

To be added

“Snowfall”

FX

To be added

“Snowpiercer”

TNT

To be added

“Star Trek: Discovery”

Paramount+

To be added

“Star Trek: Picard”

Paramount+

Alex Kurtzman, Akiva Goldsman, Terry Matalas, Patrick Stewart, Heather Kadin,
Aaron Baiers, Rod Roddenberry, Trevor Roth, Doug Aarniokoski and Dylan Massin

“Star Trek: Strange New Worlds”

Paramount+

Alex Kurtzman, Akiva Goldsman, Jenny Lumet, Henry Alonso Myers, Heather Kadin,
Frank Siracusa, John Weber, Rod Roddenberry, Trevor Roth and Aaron Baiers

“State of the Union”

SundanceTV

To be added

“Station 19”

ABC

To be added

“Superman & Lois”

The CW

To be added

“Suspicion”

Apple TV+

To be added

“Swagger”

Apple TV+

To be added

“Sweet Magnolias”

Netflix

To be added

“Tale Of Tails”

To be added

To be added

“Tehran”

Apple TV+

To be added

“The Accidental Wolf”

Topic

To be added

“The Blacklist”

NBC

To be added

“The Chi”

Showtime

Lena Waithe, Justin Hillian, Aaron Kaplan, Common, Derek Dudley, Shelby Stone, Rick Famuyiwa, Rishi Rajani, Gandja Monteiro, Jewel Coronel, Patrik-Ian Polk. Resheida Brady, Michael Pendell

“The Endgame”

NBC

To be added

“The Equalizer”

CBS

To be added

“The Expanse”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“The Flash”

The CW

To be added

“The Girl in the Woods”

Peacock

To be added

“The Good Doctor”

ABC

To be added

“The L Word: Generation Q”

Showtime

Jennifer Beals, Katherine Moenning, Leisha Hailey, Ilene Chaiken, Maisha Closson, Allyce Ozarski, Kristen Campo, Marja-Lewis Ryan, Melody Derloshon, Jonnell Lennon

“The Last Kingdom”

Netflix

To be added

“The Lincoln Lawyer”

Netflix

To be added

“The Porter”

BET

To be added

“The Resident”

Fox

To be added

“The Rookie”

ABC

To be added

“The Sinner”

USA Network

To be added

“The Tourist”

HBO

To be added

“The Wheel of Time”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“The Wilds”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“The Witcher”

Netflix

To be added

“Titans”

HBO

To be added

“Tokyo Vice”

HBO

To be added

“Truth Be Told”

Apple TV+

To be added

“Vikings: Valhalla”

Netflix

To be added

“Virgin River”

Netflix

To be added

“Walker”

The CW

To be added

“When Calls The Heart”

Hallmark Channel

To be added

“Wu-Tang: An American Saga”

Hulu

To be added

“Y: The Last Man”

FX

To be added

“You”

Netflix

To be added

DID NOT SUBMIT TO THE TV ACADEMY

“Godfather of Harlem”

Epix

To be added

“I Know What You Did Last Summer”

Amazon Prime Video

To be added

“Lupin”

Netflix

To be added

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Drama Series)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television's most prestigious artistic award. Many records are held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.

For wins: HBO's "Game of Thrones" holds the record for most wins for a series in a single year with 12 (in 2015, 2016 and 2019), most collective wins for a drama series with 59 (across eight seasons), most wins for a single episode with six (for "Battle of the Bastards" in 2016) and most wins for a series and drama series in its final season with 12 (in 2019). "Game of Thrones" is also tied for most wins for outstanding drama series with four - along with "Hill Street Blues," "L.A. Law," "Mad Men" and "The West Wing." "Hill Street Blues," "Mad Men" and "The West Wing" won their four awards consecutively. "The West Wing" also holds the record for most wins in its first season with nine, while it shares the record for most wins for acting across an entire drama series at nine, along with "Breaking Bad" and "The Sopranos." Netflix's "The Crown" is the only series to sweep all the major categories in 2020, winning all four acting races, writing and directing.

Four shows have won this category three times: "The Defenders," "Dragnet," "Playhouse 90," which all won consecutively, and "Upstairs, Downstairs."

For nominations: "Game of Thrones" holds the record for most nominations overall for an entire drama series with 161. It also has the most nominations for a drama series in a single year and its final season with 32 (2019). AMC's "Mad Men" holds the record for the most nominations without a win in a single year, going zero for 17 (in 2012). "NYPD Blue" holds the record for most nominations in its first season at 27 (in 1994), while "Law & Order" has the record for most nominations ever for an entire drama series at 11.

For networks, NBC has the most wins in this category with 21, with CBS following with 18. Hulu and Netflix are the only streaming services to win this category, with "The Handmaid's Tale" in 2017 and "The Crown" in 2020.

2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes - Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

  • The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.

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