Election betting odds tighten as polls show Harris has momentum
A new poll showed Kamala Harris had a surprise 3-point lead over Trump in Iowa.
Betting odds on Robinhood and Kalshi tightened following the news.
Trump won Iowa easily in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Vice President Kamala Harris' betting odds jumped overnight after a new poll showed she held a surprise lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa — a state he won easily in both 2016 and 2020.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll by Selzer & Co. published on Saturday showed Harris with a three-point lead in the state.
The results were reflected in tightening odds in betting markets on Sunday morning.
On Kalshi, the popular US-based prediction platform, Harris' odds of winning the election have soared from 35% on October 29 to 51% at the time of writing.
Harris' odds of winning the popular vote also increased on Kalshi, rising from a low of about 61% on October 29 to 77% at the time of writing.
The electronic trading platform Robinhood also showed narrowing odds ahead of Tuesday's election.
Trump had a 66% chance of winning on October 29 versus Harris' 39% chance, based on bets placed on Robinhood. But, at the time of writing, that had narrowed to a 51% chance for Trump and a 50% chance for Harris.
Betting markets have capitalized on this year's presidential election. Kalshi attracted over $100 million in bets on who will win in October alone.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, another prediction market — not available to US citizens — saw betting volume for the US election reach more than $2 billion on its platform last month, The Block reported.
The Iowa poll surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and October 31, with a 3.4-point margin of error.
The results marked a sharp swing from September when the same poll showed Trump ahead by four points.
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