What we know - and don't know - about Trump's historic conviction
.Donald Trump has been found guilty in the 'hush money trial' of 34 counts of falsifying business records - becoming the first former president to be a convicted felon
Donald Trump has been found guilty in the 'hush money trial' of 34 counts of falsifying business records - becoming the first former president to be a convicted felon.
The jury found Trump had attempted to influence the 2016 election by falsifying his business records to cover up a "hush money" payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels, in order to hide their alleged affair from voters.
With sentencing set for July, and the 2024 presidential election happening in November - here's what we know and don't know about Trump's conviction.
What we know
He's guilty
A jury of 12 people deliberated over the case for almost 12 hours, over the course of two days, before returning a guilt verdict on all 34 counts of falsifying business records.
Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg told press following the verdict: “The 12 everyday jurors vowed to make a decision based on the evidence and the law, and the evidence and the law alone. Their deliberations led them to a unanimous conclusion beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant Donald J. Trump is guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, to conceal a scheme to corrupt the 2016 election,” he said.
He can still run for president
Trump's felony conviction does not prevent him from running to be president. Indeed, the rules don't even prevent him from running from jail (although this is a less likely scenario). To run for US president, the constitution states that candidates must be over 35 years old, be a natural-born citizen of the US, and have been a resident in the US for more than 14 years.
His conviction also doesn't appear to have deterred any of his grassroots supporters, with The New York Times reporting that WinRed (the Republican campaign donations payment page) was in such high demand it crashed following the verdict. However, his guilty verdict is likely to put off some less committed voters and could make a crucial difference in the polls.
Read more: Trump is now a convicted felon. That will actually matter in November (The Independent)
He will likely appeal
The former president is very likely to appeal the conviction, having described proceedings as "a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt". Following the guilty verdict, his attorney Todd Blanche asked the judge for an acquittal on all charges (except the guilty verdict). His request was refused.
In previous cases, Trump has mounted numerous legal challenges and this one is unlikely to be any different.
Read more: ‘Our country has gone to hell’: Trump vows to ‘keep fighting’ after guilty verdict (The Telegraph)
When the sentencing is
Trump will be sentenced on 11 July. The sentencing date comes four days before the Republican National Convention - at which Trump is expected to be confirmed as the Republican 2024 presidential candidate.
What we don't know
Will he go to prison?
The sentence for each of the 34 Class E felonies carries a maximum of 4-year custodial sentence (with a maximum of 20 years in prison) - however, given that Trump is a first-time offender and his crime is non-violent, there is no guarantee that he will spend time behind bars.
Other options in sentencing range from probation and community service to fines and travel restrictions. Trump's legal team could also push to have any punishment pushed back to after the November election.
Read more: Will Donald Trump go to prison? (Evening Standard)
He may not be able to vote for himself
Rules in Florida, where Trump is registered to vote, prevent convicted felons from voting until they have finished their whole sentence (including being on probation) - however, voting rules around convictions in Florida depend on the state in which a person was sentenced.
And the rules in New York (where Trump will be sentenced) only prevent felons from voting during the time they are incarcerated. Additionally, with Trump highly likely to appeal the conviction, he will likely be able to cast a vote for himself in November.
Read more: Can convicted felons like Trump vote? (USA Today)
How it will impact his poll ratings
Trump's die-hard supporters are just that - and have consistently indicated that a guilty verdict would not deter them from casting a vote for Trump in November. Additionally, voters view the hush money case as the least important in the looming legal battles Trump faces.
However, with Trump and Biden polling neck and neck, undecided voters are likely to play a big role in the upcoming election - and recent polling from Quinnipiac suggests that 6% of people said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he was convicted. (Although this compares with 26% - likely Trump loyalists - who said they would be more likely to vote for him if he was convicted).
Read more: How will Donald Trump's guilty verdict hit his reelection bid? (USA Today)
How the Republican Party will react
While Trump has previously been something of a divisive figure in the Republican party - with more moderate Republicans taking an arms' length approach to the former president - the verdict appears so far to have prompted a unifying voice from the GOP.
Lawmakers have rallied behind their presumptive presidential nominee, with many suggesting that the verdict is unfair. Similarly, this far into the election cycle, and with the overwhelming majority of pledge delegates, Trump is all but certain to be confirmed as the Republican presidential candidate in July.
Read more: Trump: Republicans “don’t give a sh*t” about trial, says major donor (City AM)
