How vaccines took us within touching distance of 'normality'

Watch: PM confirms further easing of lockdown can go ahead in England from 17 May

England is within touching distance of normality.

At a Downing Street press conference on Monday, Boris Johnson confirmed the third stage of the road map for easing coronavirus lockdown restrictions would go ahead as planned on 17 May.

The government is now aiming to drop all restrictions on social contact on 21 June: the fourth and final stage of the road map.

The successful rollout of the vaccine, of course, has played a major role in this. Here is an overview of how...

Where are we now?

As of Sunday, the latest date for which figures are available, 35,472,295 people had received a first dose of the vaccine, with 17,856,550 of those having the full round of two doses.

So that’s 67.3% of the UK’s adult population who have had a first dose, and 33.9% who have had two doses.

Where have we come from?

All this has come just five months since Margaret Keenan, 90, became the first person in the UK – and the world – to receive a coronavirus jab in Coventry on 8 December last year.

Since then, the UK has established one of the best vaccination rates in the world.

Of all countries, according to Oxford University’s respected Our World in Data website, the UK has administered the eighth-highest number of doses – 78.13 – per 100 people.

What impact have the vaccines had?

Most importantly, the UK’s programme has had a profound impact on the number of COVID-19 deaths.

On 8 April, an analysis from Public Health England (PHE) revealed vaccines prevented 10,400 deaths of people aged 60 and over as of the end of March.

“That’s more than 10,000 families who haven’t suffered the loss of a loved one,” health secretary Matt Hancock said.

Another PHE study, released on 28 April, found a single dose of a Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine – two of the three jabs currently being used in the UK alongside the Moderna one – can cut transmission of the virus by up to half.

Various other studies have shown vaccines are highly effective at stopping people getting sick and ending up in hospital: something demonstrated by this chart used at Monday's Downing Street press conference.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, said at the briefing: “Everything is pointing in the direction that the vaccines are producing very effective reductions in hospitalisations and deaths.

“We know that they are also reducing onward transmission.

“All of that points to this now being a much smoother path, it points to a lower increase than you might have otherwise expected with another wave."

It’s not just vaccines, though

On Monday, the government reported 2,357 new infections, 101 hospital admissions and four deaths.

It compares to 58,784 new infections, 3,936 admissions and 407 deaths reported on 4 January – the day Boris Johnson announced a third lockdown for England.

And that’s the point: lockdowns have also played a huge role in bringing down the UK’s COVID numbers.

As Johnson said on 13 April: “Of course the vaccination programme has helped, but the bulk of the work in reducing the disease has been done by the lockdown.”

COVID experts including Dr Julian Tang, consultant virologist at Leicester Royal Infirmary, and Professor Anthony Harnden, deputy chairman of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, have both agreed with the prime minister’s assessment.

It’s why more infections, hospital admissions and deaths are expected as the UK continues to unlock.

However, Dr Tang also said the vaccination programme will help counteract transmission of the virus once indoor mixing is allowed in a week’s time.

He told Sky News on 15 April: “We’ll see that impact once you start to open up indoor spaces. If one in two people have antibodies, that immune barrier will reduce that spread of the virus in the indoor environment, where the ventilation is poorer and where people are closer together unmasked and talking and breathing the same air.”

Johnson, meanwhile, reiterated his point on Monday that it's a combination of vaccines and the lockdown which has driven down the UK's COVID numbers.

In a message to the public at Monday's press conference, he said: "I want to thank you particularly because your efforts [following lockdown rules] have so visibly paid off, giving us the time to vaccinate more than two-thirds of all adults across the UK, with more than one third – nearly 18 million people – also receiving their second dose and thereby unquestionably saving many lives.

“And so it’s precisely because of your efforts that I can confirm today that we’ve met our four tests for further easing the lockdown in England.”

Not all plain sailing

While the vaccine programme has been hugely successful, concerns have been raised about the AstraZeneca jab, which is the main one being administered in the UK. As of 28 April, 28.5 million doses of it had been given.

The concerns have revolved around the “extremely small risk” of people suffering blood clots after having the jab.

While the balance of benefit and risk for the AstraZeneca vaccine is very favourable for older people, it is more finely balanced for younger groups, who do not tend to suffer serious coronavirus illness.

It led to the announcement on 7 April that under-30s wouldn't be given the AstraZeneca jab. Instead they would be offered either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. This was extended to under-40s on Friday.

However, context is essential. Up to 28 April, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) had received 242 reports of blood clots accompanied by low platelet counts in the UK – or 0.0008% of the 28.5 million people who had received one – with 49 deaths.

Rare side effects are not just restricted to coronavirus vaccines. This was spelled out by Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, the popular deputy chief medical officer for England, at a press conference on 17 March.

Read more:

COVID outbreak in world’s most vaccinated country ‘mostly among people who haven’t had jab’

Zero COVID deaths recorded in England in past 24 hours

He said: “All medicines have side effects and all medicines have benefits. That’s the whole point, that you have to look at both sides and say: ‘How big are the benefits in relation to the risks?’”

To illustrate his point, he then picked up a data sheet from a packet of paracetamol and read out the numerous rare side effects.

Furthermore, as outlined above in this article, the AstraZeneca jab has been proven to be effective in reducing the chance of COVID transmission, serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths.

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