Conviction Picks: Week 11 fantasy football takes our analysts believe in the most

Our analysts reveal the fantasy football takes they have the most conviction for heading into Week 11 to help you feel better about the lineup decisions ahead. For more sit-start advice, check out our rankings hub.

Rashee Rice ready to take a step forward

Fresh off the bye is the right time for the Chiefs to fully integrate their rookie wide receiver as a starter. Rice has shown flashes of big-time YAC ability, but hasn’t been on the field for more than 70% of the snaps in any game this season and has mostly been limited to only in-breaking routes. I’d love to think there has been some development over the bye week and we’ll see Rice in more of a routine receiver role in Week 11. The Chiefs have started to use him more all over the field but he’s still run 58% of his routes from the slot this season, per Fantasy Points Data. The Eagles' pass defense has been vulnerable of late and exploitable in the slot from the get-go. — Matt Harmon

Jayden Reed a trustworthy option

Rookie Jayden Reed has easily been Green Bay's most efficient pass-catcher this year, averaging 9.3 yards per target (Christian Watson is at 7.2, and Romeo Doubs lags at 5.8). Reed's also coming off his best game (5-84-1 at Pittsburgh), producing despite a modest five targets and 56% route share. I feel comfortable assuming rational coaching from Matt LaFleur, and I know Reed can find holes against the Chargers pass defense, one of the worst in football. Reed is only rostered in 30% of Yahoo leagues; that number is likely to spike in a few days. — Scott Pianowski

DJ Moore ready to get back on track

Moore continued to see targets from Tyson Bagent, but his fantasy value fell off a cliff. He was the No. 4 fantasy receiver over the first five weeks with a healthy Justin Fields, averaging 106.2 yards while scoring five touchdowns. Moore has averaged 52.4 receiving yards with zero TDs since Bagent took over in Week 6. Fields is set to return this week (albeit how much his thumb injury affects his throwing remains in question) in a matchup indoors against a Detroit defense that stuffs the run but is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Moore benefits from Fields’ return and finishes as a top-five WR this week. — Dalton Del Don

Javonte Williams is a top-5 RB

Denver returned from its bye in Week 10 and Williams earned a massive 25 opportunities. He now has averaged 28 opportunities his past two games, with top-10 finishes in each of them.

Williams hasn’t been extremely efficient this season but he’s facing the fifth-most stacked boxes among running backs. Opposing defenses haven’t been scared to leave receivers one-on-one against Russell Wilson. But Russ has been better as of late, so more running lanes should open up for Williams if this continues.

Either way, his volume is too much to ignore. He’s earned a carry or target on over 40% of Denver’s plays the past two games. This week he’s a home favorite against the Vikings. Minnesota has been league average against the run this season. — Sal Vetri

David Montgomery could disappoint

After returning from injury in Week 10, Montgomery exploded onto the scene with a 75-yard house call to the delight of his fantasy managers. Though he saw just two fewer carries on the day, the team favored Jahmyr Gibbs in the red zone and end zone in a way that could yield different results against a more challenging run defense. Since Week 5, Chicago's run defense has buttoned up tremendously, holding opposing running backs to just 2.38 yards per rush attempt while not having allowed a single running back 45 or more rushing yards in that span. Given the shift in workload and some improvements in the Bears' run defense, fantasy managers can brace themselves for what will likely be his second finish as an RB3 or worse to date this season. — Kate Magdziuk

Pollard’s understudy worth starting again

I’ll actually be a bit surprised if Rico Dowdle poaches a significant share of Tony Pollard’s rest-of-season carries, because, prior to garbage time against the Giants, he had been just as inefficient as any other back in Dallas. But I do expect Dowdle to mix in early as a rotational runner, as happened in Week 10. We also have precisely the same game setup against the Panthers as we did against the Giants, with Dallas a double-digit favorite. It’s always dangerous to anticipate game flow, but, well … it’s just exceedingly hard to imagine Carolina keeping this one close. We can expect Dowdle to again serve as the closer, a scenario that led him to the end zone a week ago. We’re looking at another very useful fantasy week from Pollard’s understudy. — Andy Behrens

Jahan Dotson worth getting in lineups

Dotson leads the NFL in routes run with 389. Let that sink in for a moment. With the Commanders out in front with the most pass attempts in the league, I’m putting my money on Dotson bouncing back from a week where he had only two targets (and no catches). Take a look back at the three games prior to his donut last week, and Dotson had 26 targets, which he turned into 17 catches for 220 yards and a pair of scores. If there’s a get-right opponent, it’s a home date with the Giants and their 30th-ranked defense against wide receivers. Coincidentally, the Commanders are No. 31, so if Tommy DeVito makes a game of it, Dotson will get plenty of targets. Put him down for right around 100 yards and a touchdown. No prediction on DeVito, though. I’m not that brave. — Jorge Martin