College football betting: Take the home underdog in this SEC clash

·Betting analyst

Updated 20 October 2022 at 10:50 am·3-min read

Last week brought absolute chaos to the college football landscape. Alabama got bounced out of Rocky Top, Michigan punished Penn State in the Big House and the luck finally ran out on Lincoln Riley's defense.

The shocking results provided plenty of answers for bettors regarding some of the top teams, and those same answers opened up so many more questions. I'm unsure what this season can do for an encore, but Week 8 awaits regardless.

Our write-up hit for the third consecutive week as Clemson cruised to an easy cover over Florida State. But this week, we are shifting gears and heading to Williams-Brice Stadium. Texas A&M travels to South Carolina as three-point favorites in an SEC showdown, and my money is on the home dog.

Texas A&M at South Carolina (+3)

There is no running from the fact that this season has been a disappointment for the 3-3 Aggies. Laying only a field goal with A&M would have sounded like a bargain in September, but injuries and an abysmal offense have sabotaged Texas A&M's season. Generally, it's a terrible idea to lay points on the road with a team that can't put points on the scoreboard. The Aggies' inept offense ranks 111th in scoring and barely within the top 100 in points per drive (98th), offensive success rate (99th) and EPA per play (89th). While both teams are coming off a bye, these issues will take more than seven days to fix.

South Carolina's defense should be able to create some negative plays and win the field position battle in what projects to be a lower-scoring game. The total is currently 45.5 (-115) at BetMGM. The Gamecocks' defensive line is coming off one of their best games against Kentucky, where they swarmed the Wildcats for eight tackles for loss and six sacks. Injuries have forced the Aggies to juggle offensive linemen again, as they will be on their sixth different combination this season. South Carolina's pass rush should see the blood in the water in front of a loud, hostile crowd in prime time.

I think South Carolina can move the ball on the ground with Marshawn Lloyd on offense. Lloyd rushed for 110 yards on 22 carries against a much more formidable Kentucky defense that ranks fourth in the SEC. For comparison, Texas A&M's rushing defense ranks 13th in the conference, ahead of only Auburn.

South Carolina's 48-7 loss to Georgia was the only game this year in which their rushing success rate fell below relative performance this year. A strong running game, a hostile home crowd and a defense that can create havoc sounds like the perfect formula for an upset. The Aggies are winless on the road this season, and this will be their third straight game away from home. Per the Action Network, Shane Beamer is 3-0 ATS with 8+ days to prepare. All the more reason I sided with South Carolina and grabbed the three points with the home dog.

Stats provided by cfbstats, cfbdata, tailgate tent and teamrankings.com

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