College football betting: Here are 3 Heisman long shots to jump on early

Mark Drumheller
·Betting analyst
Updated ·5-min read

Last November, when Caleb Williams hit the Heisman pose after his five-yard touchdown run against Notre Dame, bettors started making plans for how to spend their winning ticket. Williams' four-touchdown performance made him the massive favorite and closed the window on any remaining value left in the Heisman market. If you didn’t have a Williams Heisman bet at that point, better luck next year.

The Heisman Trophy award can be one of the most unpredictable and exhilarating markets to bet. One off-week can sabotage a season and torpedo a Heisman hopeful’s chances along with it. It also can be very profitable to capitalize on long odds this time of year, before the roller coaster of the season begins.

Williams is the betting favorite (+500) to win the award, despite it being a rare feat to accomplish in consecutive seasons. If he is to be successful, Williams would become the first player to repeat in close to 50 years (Archie Griffin 1974-75). As much as I believe he will be even better this season, I don’t think now is the time to jump in and bet against five decades of history. Summer is the season for the long shots, so my time will be better spent taking a flier on a few solid candidates at very wide odds. Once the season starts, they will either fall off or shorten quickly. I put together three players at 20-1 or greater who are intriguing dark-horse candidates to win the award. We’ll start with the widest odds first.

Oklahoma Sooners QB Dillon Gabriel (+5000)

Brent Venables is going to have to earn his money for this to have any shot, but Gabriel checks a lot of the boxes despite last season’s nightmare in Norman. The voters historically favor the guys under center — eight of the last 10 winners have been quarterbacks. Gabriel heads an offense that has the potential to be very explosive, and he plays for a high-profile program guaranteed to get national attention throughout the season. Last year, Gabriel opened at 40-1, but things quickly fell apart after he was knocked out of a loss to TCU and missed the rivalry matchup with Texas the following week. The Sooners suffered four more losses on the season by only a field goal, with Gabriel falling short of overcoming an Oklahoma defense that ranked 122nd in the country.

The combination of Venables improving the defense, along with Gabriel’s second year in Jeff Lebby’s system, can reasonably flip those close losses to wins in 2023. Oklahoma has the second-shortest odds to win the Big 12 (+325) behind only Texas. If the Soooners can upset the Longhorns in early October, the return might be the type of national story that propels Gabriel into a serious contender. At 50-1, the time to jump on Gabriel is now.

Michigan Wolverines RB Blake Corum (+4000)

Betting on a non-QB to win the award always adds a layer of risk, but it also presents an opportunity to get one of the most impactful players in the country at valuable odds. The Michigan running back finished seventh in last year’s voting (behind six QBs) despite his season ending early with a knee injury in late November. The talent is unquestionably there. Corum cut through some of the toughest defenses in the country for 1,463 yards on 5.9 yards per rush, along with 18 TDs. He will continue to be the engine of the Wolverines' offense, poised to put up even bigger numbers behind one of the nation’s strongest offensive lines. Michigan holds the second-best odds at even money to return to the College Football Playoff and eases into a very soft schedule. The momentum behind Michigan’s running back will skyrocket early.

Ohio State Buckeyes WR Marvin Harrison Jr. +2000

Here’s where bettors run into a difficult decision. Marvin Harrison Jr. is that guy. The Buckeyes' wideout may end up being the most talented player in college football. While wide receivers don’t have a rich history of taking home the award, Devonta Smith hauled in the Heisman just three years ago with 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns. It takes a special season, and there is little question Harrison Jr. has the upside to deliver one. In only his sophomore year, he asserted himself as the leading receiver on an offense that averaged 44.2 points per game (second in college football). The drop-off from C.J. Stroud to Kyle McCord is something to consider, but Ryan Day could have easily grabbed a better option in the portal if he didn't believe in McCord's ability to get the ball into the hands of the Buckeyes' playmakers.

The bet boils down to whether you think there is enough value at 20-1 for a non-QB. There is a good chance the quarterbacks get the attention early. They have the opportunity to pad their stats against non-conference defenses, causing a ripple effect that could widen the odds in September for players like Harrison Jr. As the QBs hit the teeth of the schedule the following month, Harrison Jr. will still be putting up big numbers consistently. However, the Buckeyes start the season with Indiana, Youngstown State and WKU. So, considering those defenses, there is also a chance we never see 20-to-1 again. I’d rather take my shot now than risk getting left out in the cold when his connection with McCord heats up. He has the talent, the program and the pedigree to pry the award out of a QB’s hands.

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