China's scenarios for invading Taiwan could be altered following Iran's failed attack on Israel, report says

  • China is likely analyzing Iran's failed attack on Israel to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan.

  • Experts believe China will focus on how Israel and its allies thwarted the attack, a report said.

  • Tensions between China and Taiwan have heightened in recent years.

China will analyze the failed Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel in order to better prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, experts believe.

Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles in a direct attack on Israel last week, but Israel and its allies were able to shoot down most of the munitions.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, the president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, told The Telegraph that China would likely look at the incident to work out how it could get past the technology and the alliance that foiled the attack.

"They will be picking apart what transpired, not just in the way in which the Iranians attacked but also how we responded – the Israelis and the coalition that supported them," he said.

"The kill rate for the drones and the missiles was extremely high, almost perfect. The walk-away for the PLA [People's Liberation Army] will be that the Americans and their allies have the technology to significantly blunt an attack," he added.

xi jinping
Chinese President Xi Jingping.Reuters

Much like Israel, Taipei expects to be able to rely on US support in the event of an attack from China, which considers Taiwan a part of its territory.

A vote in the US House of Representatives on Saturday, which saw almost $61 billion in aid for Ukraine approved by the US House, also confirmed that around $8 billion would go toward security in the Indo-Pacific region, including to Taiwan.

However, Hammond-Chambers did not believe the pro-Taiwan alliance was operating as smoothly as in the case of Israel.

"The Jordanians, the Brits, the States and the Israelis all worked together to negate the Iranian attack. To what extent do we have that in place in North Asia?" Hammond-Chambers said, per The Telegraph.

"It's coming but I've not seen that yet – that common operating platform that allows for seamless interoperability," he added.

It follows a warning from former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence Mike Studeman, in which he said Beijing appeared to be on the "march to war."

In an article for War on the Rocks, Studeman wrote: "The war machine of the People's Liberation Army continues to modernize at a sprint in every area."

"In 2020, Xi accelerated significant military milestones from 2035 to 2027 because he wanted China's military to modernize faster and give him Taiwan options earlier," he added.

Tensions have risen between China and Taiwan since the island's Democratic Progressive Party, which favors independence from China, won a third consecutive term in Taiwan's 2024 presidential elections.

In August 2022, following then-speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, tensions reached near-boiling point as China began military exercises over the island, including "live-fire drills."

In April 2023, China again launched military drills around the island after then-president Tsai Ing-wen visited the US.

At the time, China described the drills as a "stern warning against the collusion between separatist forces."

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