Chasing Don Shula

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At 299 victories, Bill Belichick sits 29 back of Don Shula’s all-time wins record for NFL head coaches. But the way things stand, Belichick isn’t the biggest threat to plant roots atop the all-time wins list. Andy Reid is.

Reid won his 251st game Sunday, quietly surpassing Tom Landry to move into fourth all-time. Though he sits 48 wins behind Belichick and 77 behind Shula, Reid has at his disposal a ludicrous mode that would make Elon Musk jealous.

Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in Kansas City, the Chiefs have averaged 12.8 wins a season. At that rate, Reid would catch Shula early in the 2029 season.

But by then, will Shula be the record holder, or will Belichick? And will Reid still be coaching?

Let’s tackle the Belichick question first.

At 71, he’s given no indication that he’s ready to retire on his own accord, but will Patriots owner Bob Kraft have the patience to keep him around? The Patriots are terrible this season. They've lost their past two games by a combined score of 72-3, and don’t have a single skill-position player on their roster who scares anyone.

‌At 1-4, they’re on their way to a third losing season in four years.

‌In other words, they’re in need of a total rebuild, including at quarterback, which makes winning 29 games at least a three- to four-year process beyond this season. That would mean Belichick staying on the sidelines into his mid-70s.

‌Kraft could fire him and Belichick could land with another team looking for a culture shift, but that’s likely just moving the rebuild from New England to somewhere else. We’re still probably talking three to four years.

‌If he does catch Shula, it’s unlikely that he will put much distance on the Miami legend.

‌Reid, meanwhile, is in position to rack up 10-plus-win season after 10-plus-win season as long as Mahomes is healthy. From there, it becomes a race against time.

‌In 2029, Reid would be 71, the same age Belichick is today. Mahomes will be only 34, presumably still in the prime of his career.

‌By then Reid could also be running toward a fourth or fifth Super Bowl, too, which would spark a greater coach debate. A while back, before he'd won a Super Bowl, I called Reid the second-best coach of this generation, behind only Belichick. I’m not so sure Reid isn’t No. 1 now, having won two Super Bowls and replicating (and then some) in Kansas City the sustained success that he had in Philadelphia.

‌That's an arbitrary debate that's already begun, especially as Belichick has struggled in the post-Brady era. What won't be up for debate is who ends up winning more games. At some point, it will be settled.

‌If this were a horse race, the sharp money would be on Reid to charge through the final turn and overtake Shula and a fading Belichick down the stretch.