Chances are 50/50. What is happening in the United States around Ukraine

The US has almost returned to the beginning of the discussion on military aid to Ukraine

I have talked to a lot of colleagues in Washington and I must say that today the chances that the aid to Ukraine will be approved in the Senate are about 50-50. There is only a 25% chance that the aid will be passed in both houses of Congress and that President Biden will be able to sign it. At least that's what observers are saying today. What actually happened.

The US has practically returned to the beginning of the discussion on military aid to Ukraine. Because at the moment, the Senate has allegedly agreed on a compromise between Republicans and Democrats almost over the weekend.

But at the same time, the Republicans do not yet have all the votes to pass the bill. Chuck Schumer has begun the process of procedural votes, and on Wednesday, February 7, there will be this first vote - at least that's what they plan - which should allow the entire bill to be voted on in the Senate, one of the chambers of Congress, by the end of the week. There are about 75 votes now, and we need to get a few more.

Ukrainian advocacy in Congress is very actively working today with people in American districts to influence their senators and congressmen to vote accordingly. The Ukrainian diaspora in the United States is calling on its representatives in the regions to call and write to their legislators to ensure that they vote for this bill. This bill, which was agreed upon in the Senate, is comprehensive, as it includes many aspects of the national security of the United States. And it is likely to be passed. But Mike Johnson said that this law in its current form is unacceptable to the House of Representatives, and the House of Representatives will pass a separate law. He will put a separate law to the vote. If this happens, it means that the Senate will have to vote again on a similar bill. Then a joint conference of concurrence takes place if these bills do not have identical content. And only then can it go to the president for signature. And I have to say that under the most optimistic scenarios, this may take a month or two. Under pessimistic scenarios, it may take much longer, and perhaps not pass in the form that is proposed.

Trump's son recently said that Ukraine has long since lost

What do I know about the Republican position on supporting Ukraine? A cornerstone alongside the issue of strengthening the southern border of the United States is the issue of assistance to Ukraine. But it is also a matter of political struggle in the United States. And this part of the Republicans, which is represented by Johnson and which is represented by President Biden, is actually quite critical. Especially if you watch various election speeches and rallies of Trump's representatives in the United States, you can see how negative they are about helping Ukraine. In fact, Trump's son recently said that Ukraine has long since lost and there is no point in supporting it today and giving money so that President Zelensky can buy yachts. I mean, of course, this whole story has been refuted, but the radical part of the Republican Party and Trump's supporters continue to spread this information and make such appeals to their supporters.

It is likely that we will see this Biden-Trump tandem in the presidential election. Donald Trump has a very strong position. Among his supporters, and we've talked about this a lot, he has a virtually cemented electorate. And he needs to keep this electorate and maybe add a little more to outweigh this 50-something percent. And President Biden has a chance to hold on to his electorate as well, but his electorate is more fragmented. Because this is, again, a democracy and these are people with a more analytical position who analyze the course of the presidency and all these conflicts in the world. Now Trump is saying that "there were no wars under President Trump, but President Biden came in and now there are wars. I will end all wars." That is, this argument is constantly used by candidate Trump in his rhetoric. And he explains the same thing to his voters, who believe in him almost blindly and believe anything he says. And this Republican populist position is quite common in a large number of states in the United States. They have a lot of viewers, listeners on social media, and they believe it. So it is very difficult to counteract this rhetoric.

If Biden wins, many people are talking about how much strength and energy he personally still has to lead America forward. Few people doubt his positions on Ukraine, his positions on how he sees the defense of Europe, his positions on Russia. So all of these remain strengths when it comes to risks in the region and the situation in Ukraine.

Trump believes that he is Putin's friend. He says honestly and openly that he is ready to go to a truce and he will move in this direction. Trump wants to end the war. However, he avoids explaining how he wants to end the war. But Trump belongs to this category of people who believe that the world is divided into zones of interest and that the powers that be determine the further development of the geopolitical world. Therefore, he also has a rather open position. If former President Donald Trump becomes the new president, we can most likely expect to see an increase in rhetoric about the need for peace and negotiations.

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