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Boris Johnson backs down as tigerish Tory rebels bare their teeth

Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker, admonished Boris Johnson for his administration's 'total disregard for the House' - Getty Images Europe
Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker, admonished Boris Johnson for his administration's 'total disregard for the House' - Getty Images Europe

As a scholar of Winston Churchill, Boris Johnson is all too familiar with the potency of a Tory rebellion.

Having carefully documented the Norway debate, which brought down Neville Chamberlain in 1940, the Prime Minister knows better than most how dangerous Conservative big beasts can become when provoked – which makes it even more extraordinary that the Government took so long to throw the Covid dissenters a bone on Wednesday.

Having kept them waiting for their supper for days, Downing Street actively invited comparisons between Mr Johnson and Dr Strangelove.

Such was the underestimation of the strength of feeling behind the revolt over the coronavirus rules that one official even naively described the rebels as "pussycats". The extent of that miscalculation was immediately exposed when Steve Baker bared his teeth on Radio 4's Today programme, reiterating the "fierce resolve" of MPs who were "not going to go away".

Willingly feasting on the carcass of Mr Johnson's gaffe in confusing the Covid rules for the north-east of England on Tuesday, he added: "When you get such a large and shifting body of law, you find even ministers and the Prime Minister cannot keep up with it."

Far from being domesticated, these tigerish Tories were baying for blood. As Sir Desmond Swayne had already warned, many in the pride were prepared to bring down the Coronavirus Act altogether in the name of "parliamentary democracy and the rule of law" without a compromise.

Yet despite supposedly "constructive" meetings with ministers, still no compromise was forthcoming, exposing Number 10 to yet more ridicule at the beginning of Prime Minister's Questions.

Although the Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, was unable to select Sir Graham Brady's amendment calling for greater parliamentary scrutiny, the damage, by then, had already been done.

Admonishing Mr Johnson for his administration's "total disregard for the House", Sir Lindsay said the Government "must make greater efforts" to give MPs time to debate and scrutinise laws, effectively sealing its inevitable climbdown.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, later announced the details of the peace deal, which will make national Covid measures subject to a vote "wherever possible" provided they do not hold up urgent regulations needed to save lives.

MPs would also have more access to the chief scientists and data and be able to join daily calls with the Paymaster General, Mr Hancock said.

Although the concessions were widely welcomed, there is no doubt that the unedifying episode has left a bad taste in the mouths of Tory MPs who have felt marginalised since Mr Johnson secured his 80-majority victory in December.

Increasingly frustrated with an overly centralised Downing Street operation they feel has treated them "with contempt", there is a sense that this rebellion was about much more than just parliamentary scrutiny.

As one beleaguered backbencher put it: "The revolt was a shot across the bow. It's intended to send a clear message to the PM that, while there is a good amount of residual goodwill towards him, we've had it with his advisers. They need to go."

Or as another candidly revealed: "I voted for Boris as an election winner, but I knew he couldn't run the country. What he needs is an effective team around him – and he hasn't got that. They are simply careering from one crisis to another."

So, once again, the knives are out for the PM's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, whose long-held disregard for Conservatives is well-known. Amid scurrilous tearoom talk of Rishi Sunak being lined up as Mr Johnson's successor, one backbencher said: "At this stage, all Tories want is a PM who isn't aligned to Dominic Cummings."

Once again, Tory knives are out for Boris Johnson's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings - John Sibley/Reuters
Once again, Tory knives are out for Boris Johnson's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings - John Sibley/Reuters

Most damaging to Mr Johnson is not the context of the insurgency but the character of it – representing all corners of the party, from the 1922 Committee chairman's "Brady bunch" to Damian Green's One Nation caucus to Dehenna Davison's 2019 "Red Wall" intake.

With Conservative circles awash with talk of "reshuffles" and "resets", it is little wonder that MPs spent most of Wednesday poring over a ConHome article written by James Frayne, a former director of communications at the Department for Education and a close friend of Mr Cummings.

In it, Mr Frayne detailed how ministers can keep public opinion onside. Seemingly contradicting Mr Cummings' reliance on focus groups, he recommended that the Government "junk almost all polling", pointing out that "public opinion is in a state of total unreality, and has been for many months".

Urging Number 10 to be more honest about "risk and public choice", he suggested politicians should be "promoted" while scientists are downgraded, advocating "using Rishi more" to explain the dangers of not protecting the economy.

Yet arguably the most salient advice came when he suggested that ministers "remember who the English are: law-abiding; fair-minded; (nuclear) family-focused; and ultimately liberal". He added: "Pushing them into civil disobedience to protect their families will end catastrophically badly. (And, whatever you do, don't mess with the English Christmas)."

Of all the people in Government, the Prime Minister knows this. And Tory MPs know he knows this. This latest Conservative cat fight wasn't aimed at Mr Johnson, but at the bad advice he has seemingly been so willing to lap up.