Will bitcoin hit $100,000 after Trump win?

Brian McGleenon
Updated ·3-min read

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) could reach a new all-time high of $100,000 (£77,436) by the inauguration of Donald Trump as the US president on 20 January, according to an analyst.

Bitcoin rose after Trump's US presidential election victory, to trade above the $75,000 mark — a new all-time high.

Market analysts speculate this rally may continue as pro-bitcoin policies under the new administration could reshape the crypto landscape.

Read more: Crypto live prices

Fadi Aboualfa, Copper.co head of research, attributes this optimistic forecast to recent trends in bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) accumulation. "We’ve back-tested the ETF accumulation trend against potential price ranges, suggesting a $100,000 bitcoin is quite possible by 20 January,” he said. He noted that ETFs, including BlackRock’s IBIT (IBIT), could soon hold around 1.1 million bitcoins, increasing institutional exposure and demand.

"The last time Trump was in office, bitcoin’s gains came amid a weaker dollar. Today, the dollar is stronger, but bitcoin remains resilient, signalling broader adoption," he said.

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered global head of digital assets research, was even more bullish, forecasting bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of 2024 and $200,000 by late 2025. He argued that Trump’s pro-crypto policies — such as his pledge to dismiss US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Gary Gensler, create a national bitcoin reserve, and position the US as a “bitcoin superpower” — are likely to fuel further gains.

Gensler has a reputation in the industry for being a strict regulator of crypto businesses, having slapped multimillion-dollar fines on multiple businesses for violations of securities law.

"We’ve gone from a regulatory landscape under Biden that was largely adversarial, to one that actively supports the industry," Kendrick said at a Standard Chartered roundtable on Wednesday.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShare, said the Trump administration’s pro-bitcoin stance may catalyse a shift in bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve asset. He noted the potential passage of the “Bitcoin Act,” which would allow the US government to acquire up to 5% of bitcoin’s total supply, giving it a recognised position within the national reserve.

“If the Bitcoin Act is implemented, it could signal a historic level of legitimacy for bitcoin, potentially increasing its value and institutional interest as it becomes more akin to gold within national reserves,” Butterfill said.

Trump’s fiscal policy is also expected to impact bitcoin’s price. He recently announced plans to collaborate with Tesla's (TSLA) Elon Musk on reducing government spending to tackle national debt, with Musk potentially heading a new Department of Government Efficiency.

The proposal includes a $2tn reduction in federal expenditures, an approach that Musk has described as requiring “temporary hardship” for long-term prosperity.

Read more: What are bitcoin ETNs?

Trump’s proposed fiscal conservatism, coupled with the likelihood of a looser monetary policy, could further strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against traditional economic risks, according to Butterfill.

"Historically, periods of loose monetary policy paired with fiscal conservatism have been advantageous for bitcoin as investors seek alternatives to safeguard against inflation and currency debasement," he said.

Markets are also closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on Thursday, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is anticipated. Rate cuts typically benefit risk assets, including bitcoin, by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging investment.

The CME FedWatch tool shows a 98.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November and a 70% chance of another in December. Lower interest rates could add fuel to bitcoin’s current rally, potentially driving demand for cryptocurrencies as investors seek higher-yielding opportunities.

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