Bitcoin will extend gains following the approval of the first bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., according to Tom Lee, head of research at FSInsight, a markets strategy and research firm in an Oct. 18 note.
The 10 largest ETF launches witnessed inflows of $14 billion in their first year on average. The most successful was the Nasdaq 100 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ) in 1999, with inflows of $36 billion. FSInsight expects demand for ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF to surpass that of QQQ and forecasts inflows of more than $50 billion.
The new ETF, which starts trading on the New York Stock Exchange today, will also allow many more investors to allocate to crypto and this will result in significant new inflows, which will result in price gains, FSInsight says.
FSInsight estimates that bitcoin daily demand will increase by $50 million due to ETF inflows and if the block reward is $10 million per day the “equilibrium price to clear this, based on analysis by our data science team = $168,000.”
This equilibrium price, which is the value at which demand for bitcoin meets supply, is above FSInsight’s bitcoin year-end target of $100,000. Bitcoin was trading at about $62,260 as of publication time.