Biden lead over Trump grows in Michigan, race is statistically even in North Carolina - Reuters/Ipsos
By Jason Lange
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump in Michigan is looking increasingly comfortable but the two remain neck and neck in North Carolina, Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls showed on Tuesday.
Reuters/Ipsos is polling likely voters in six states - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona - that will play critical roles in deciding whether Trump wins a second term in office or if Biden ousts him.
A week before the Nov. 3 election, Biden leads Trump nationally by 10 percentage points, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll. The national online survey, conducted Oct. 23 to 27, found that 52% of likely voters said they were backing Biden, while 42% were voting for Trump.
Five percent said they were considering a third-party candidate and only 2% said they did not know yet how they would vote. Nearly one-third of American adults said they had already voted. Biden led by 8 points in the previous national poll conducted Oct. 20 to 22.
Below is a state-by-state look at Reuters/Ipsos findings, based on the online responses of likely voters:
MICHIGAN (Oct. 21 - Oct. 27):
** Voting for Biden: 52%
** Voting for Trump: 43%
** Biden was up 51%-44% the prior week.
** 32% said they already had voted.
** 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 39% said Trump would be better.
** 48% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.
NORTH CAROLINA (Oct. 21 - Oct. 27):
** Voting for Biden: 49%
** Voting for Trump: 48%
** Since the margin is within the poll's credibility interval, the race is statistically tied, as it was in the prior poll when Biden had 49% to Trump's 46%.
** 35% said they already had voted.
** 48% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% said Trump would be better.
** 51% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 43% said Biden would be better.
WISCONSIN (Oct. 20 - Oct. 26):
** Voting for Biden: 53%
** Voting for Trump: 44%
** Biden's advantage is marginally wider than his 51%-43% lead the prior week.
** 33% said they already had voted.
** 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 38% said Trump would be better.
** 47% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.
PENNSYLVANIA (Oct. 20 - Oct. 26):
** Voting for Biden: 50%
** Voting for Trump: 45%
** Biden's lead is marginally wider than in the prior week when he was up 49%-45%, an advantage that was on the edge of the survey's credibility interval.
** 21% said they already had voted.
** 50% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 42% said Trump would be better.
** 50% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 43% said Biden would be better.
FLORIDA (Oct. 14 - Oct. 20)
** Voting for Biden: 50%
** Voting for Trump: 46%
** Biden's apparent lead is on the edge of the survey's credibility interval.
** Prior poll showed the two essentially even, with Biden at 49% and Trump at 47%.
** 21% said they already had voted.
** 50% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 42% said Trump would be better.
** 51% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.
ARIZONA (Oct. 14 - Oct. 21):
** Voting for Biden: 49%
** Voting for Trump: 46%
** With the margin within the survey's credibility interval, the race is statistically tied.
** Prior poll showed Biden with a 50%-46% lead that was on the edge of the survey's credibility interval.
** 27% said they already had voted.
** 49% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 43% said Trump would be better.
** 48% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.
NOTES
The Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls are conducted online in all six states in English, as well as in Spanish in Arizona and Florida.
** In Michigan, from Oct. 21 to Oct. 27, it gathered responses from 1,005 adults, including 652 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
** In North Carolina, from Oct. 21 to Oct. 27, it gathered responses from 1,006 adults, including 647 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
** In Wisconsin, from Oct. 20 to Oct. 26, it gathered responses from 1,008 adults, including 664 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
** In Pennsylvania, from Oct. 20 to Oct. 26, it gathered responses from 1,001 adults, including 653 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
** In Florida, from Oct. 14 to Oct. 20, it gathered responses from 1,005 adults, including 662 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
** In Arizona, from Oct. 14 to Oct. 21, it gathered responses from 951 adults, including 658 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.
(Reporting by Jason Lange; Additional reporting by Chris Kahn; Editing by Scott Malone and Peter Cooney)
