PGA betting: Four players we like at the Bermuda Championship
The PGA heads oceanside to the Port Royal Country Club for the Bermuda Championship in Southampton, Bermuda. Just over 6,800 yards, this par-71 is the second shortest on tour behind Pebble Beach. Players will get a view of the Atlantic Ocean, plenty of elevation changes, and Bermuda grass from tee to green.
Oceanside means weather and wind, something to track if you like to bet daily matchups. Early looks indicate that rain could come into play on Sunday.
The field
Recent European Tour winner Matthew Fitzpatrick leads the field as the +1100 favorite. Coming off a win at the Andalucia Masters in Spain last week, Fitzpatrick is still searching for his first PGA win. Here’s a look at the top five players in the betting odds at BetMGM:
Matthew Fitzpatrick: +1100
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: +1600
Mito Pereira/Patrick Reed: +2000
Seamus Power: +2500
This is a weaker field that doesn't feature a player in the top 20.
The stats
With this not being a long course and wind as a potential factor, driving accuracy will be important. I’m looking at great ball strikers, par-3 scoring because it is a par 71, birdie or better percentage, and how players perform on Bermuda greens.
Here’s what I like for the Bermuda Championship:
Full tournament head-to-head matchups
Mito Pereira +1.5 (-120) over Matthew Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick may be coming off a Euro win, but before that, he had three missed cuts in his last eight events, lost strokes with his iron shots in four, and lost strokes around the green in his last four.
If I’m looking at ball strikers, Pereira leads the field in this category, gaining strokes in all but one event in his eight played, with just one missed cut in that span. Problem area: his putting, losing nearly five strokes and four strokes in back-to-back events at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the Shriners Children’s Open. However, those were his worst-putting performances during his short time on the PGA this year. The flat stick can be a volatile stat line but a good ball striker is consistent.
Seamus Power (-130) over Matthias Schwab
Schwab is predominantly a Euro player. Since finishing T3 at the Barracuda Championship last July, the Austrian has missed the cut in four of his last six PGA events. Power is entering this week with a more positive recent form, with six top-20s in his last 10 PGA events, including a win at the Barbasol Championship in July and more recently a T21 at the Shriners event earlier this month.
His off-the-tee numbers can be hit or miss, however, Power typically gains strokes with his consistent iron play. After losing strokes on his approach in back-to-back events, Power rebounded at Shriners and could push that momentum into this week.
Players to bet for Top 20
With a weaker field, there’s opportunity to take a shot at some longer-odds players. Brian Gay won this event last year. It was his first PGA tour win since 2013. It was a similar story for Brendon Todd. When he won this event in 2019, it was Todd’s first tour win in five years. When I say the door is open for a shock winner, I mean the door is wide open. Two additional players worth firing on:
Hayden Buckley
Top 20: +110
Top 10: +250
Top 5: +600
To win: +3300
Buckley is sixth in the field for driving accuracy, top 10 in strokes gained tee-to-green, and is perhaps coming into this event with the best form, finishing T4 at Sanderson followed by a T8 at Shriners. Though he does have limited PGA history, Buckley did win his first Korn Ferry Tour title in February in just his 17th career start. Crazier things have happened.
Nicky Hardy
Top 20: +175
Top 10: +450
Top 5: +900
To win: +6600
If you want to talk about a super small sample size of results, Hardy is it with just four PGA events played the entire year. However, in all four events he finished T42 or better, including T14 at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January. Why take a risk on Hardy? He’s a good ball striker and gained strokes tee-to-green in all four events. Plus, he is also coming off a T26 earlier this month in the Sanderson Championship. I like targeting players coming off in-the-green performances.
Final thoughts
Though I like both players for head-to-head matchups, I like Pereira and Power for top 20 and outright options as well.
Mito Pereira: +100 for top 20, +2200 to win
Seamus Power: +110 for top 20, +2800 to win
This is a tournament where you can take a lot of "little risk" shots on some big outrights. There’s not a single player that largely stands out from the field and with weather/wind potentially being a factor, it’s anyone’s game.
Good luck!
