After not having many options last week, we have a handful of teaser options for Week 7.
If you read last week’s piece, hopefully you saved some money by avoiding the Chargers, as it made for an alluring +8.5 leg that had no chance of covering when the Ravens blew out Justin Herbert and Co. 34-6.
As a refresher, when assembling a teaser, some parameters include:
Keeping it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).
Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).
Tease through the key numbers of three, six, and seven.
Week 7 NFL 6-point teaser-leg options
Broncos +8.5 at Browns (40.5)
Washington at Packers -2.5 (48.5)
Falcons at Dolphins +8.5 (47.5)
Jets at Patriots -1.5 (42.5)
Two non-traditional legs
Panthers at Giants +9 (42.5)
Eagles +9 at Raiders (49.5)
I list these as non-traditional because I mentioned how you should tease through the key number of three. However, if you see a juice of -115 or greater on +3, that’s an indicator that the spread will drop to (+2.5). Grabbing the +9 in this instance is sound.
What I look for
I love targeting quarterback pressure, either via a great pass rush or a great pass defense that could possibly force turnovers. That being said ...
My Week 7 NFL two-team teaser: Patriots -1.5/Eagles +9
New England has already put a beat-down on the Jets once this season, winning 25-6 in Week 2. Could the Patriots really do it again? As long as QB Zach Wilson continues to get sacked (18 times) and throw interceptions (nine against four touchdowns), then I’m going with "yes."
In that first matchup, the Patriots generated 17 points from turnovers. Though unlikely to happen again, New England still does possess a top-half pass rush, has faced a tougher slate of opponents in the Saints, Buccaneers, and Cowboys, and has a quarterback in Mac Jones who is completing 71 percent of his passes. Not for nothing, the Jets are the only team in the league to have scored zero points (yes, zero) in the first quarter and have scored just 13 first-half points this season, 20 points fewer than the next-closest team, the Detroit Lions.
The Raiders are a pass-only team, ranked third in passing yards and 30th in rushing yards. The Eagles' defense is second best in limiting big passing plays, allowing just 11 total of 20 yards or more. Prior to his matchup against Philadelphia, Bucs QB Tom Brady was leading the league in 20-yard completions and yet had an average depth of target of 5.6 yards in that game.
I expect something similar to happen with Raiders QB Derek Carr. The last time the Raiders faced a pass defense similar to the Eagles' was in Week 4 against the Chargers. Carr threw for less than 200 yards — his lowest output of the season — in a 28-14 Raiders loss.
The Eagles have also faced three of the toughest quarterbacks in the league — Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady — and held all three to less than 300 passing yards. This could also be a spot where Las Vegas might fall flat coming off a big divisional road win against the Broncos; the Eagles have a few extra days of preparation and rest after last week's Thursday night game.
Why I’m leaving out the Broncos
This is a personal choice. No Baker Mayfield, no Kareem Hunt, no Nick Chubb for the Browns. Looks like a lock! You know how many times I have been burned in the past with a new quarterback coming in and stealing the show? Enough to not want to touch this game.