Balkan states struggle with second wave amid anti-vaxx sentiment

Perhaps tennis star Novak Djokovic is to blame. His tournament in Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro and Bosnia was a well-meaning project, a celebration of sport for fans starved of live action, an all-star occasion to mark the Balkans’ victory over coronavirus.

The Adria 2020 Tour was, instead, a debacle, with players hugging and high-fiving before packed stands. Worse than the casual flouting of social distancing was the behind-the-scenes partying. Little wonder, then, so many tested positive,  including Djokovic, his wife, Gregor Dimitrov - whose diagnosis caused the final to be cancelled - Borna Coric and Viktor Troiki and his pregnant wife.

Djokovic, from Serbia, is one of the world’s most prominent anti-vaxxers. He said he would refuse to play the US Open should a coronavirus vaccine be developed and become a condition of competing.

He is far from alone when it comes to conspiracy theories in South-East Europe. One poll suggests that three in 10 people share similar views. Several countries suffered badly from a recent measles outbreak, with inoculation rates dangerously low, and the World Health Organisation seriously alarmed.

Does this scepticism of mainstream science explain the resurgence of coronavirus in this troubled region?  In part, argues James Ker-Lindsay, visiting professor at the LSE and expert on South-East Europe. “The Djokovic episode plays into something strongly felt in the region. It’s ingrained in the culture. But there are, of course, other reasons,” he said.

Initial hardline lockdowns were tough but successful, with death tolls a fraction of Italy, France, Spain, and the UK, where more than 44,400 have died. But Romania, Bulgaria, and Albania are now enduring record numbers of infections since the outbreak began, while other Balkan countries are recording daily infections akin to pre-lockdown highs.

They are sociable countries, and the easing of restrictions has seen a flurry of large wedding parties throughout. Nightclubs are open. Big, inter-generational family meetings are common again.

Professor Ker-Lindsay points to the legacy of Communist rule. Early on, that meant the population willing to accept without question hardline lockdown. But it's just too hard to do it again, particularly because there has been scant economic support. And there is now a suspicion some governments are using it as a cover to become more authoritarian.

Over the past week, Serbia has been rocked by nightly violent anti-government protests as people took to the streets to fight a government decision to re-impose a weekend curfew. The authoritarian president Aleksander Vucic reversed that move, desperately trying to save face as he did so.

Ian Bancroft, a diplomat and author, who lives in Belgrade, said: “Vucic was too quick to claim victory over the virus in Serbia. They were celebrating on the streets. It was too early.”

Miran Pogacar, a 31-year-old protest organiser in the northern city of Novi Sad, told The Daily Telegraph: “Vucic ended the lockdown for the sole reason of organising elections.”

Pogacar was detained by police for 40 hours last week. Dozens of protesters have been hurt. The smell of tear gas is pervasive in Belgrade, says Bancroft.

Social media footage captured several sickening episodes of police brutality. Amnesty International and the US embassy have called for restraint.

Serbia went from a strict lockdown typical of the region - dog owners were renting out their pets to give neighbours an excuse to get out of the house, sometimes lowering them from balconies in buckets, says Bancroft - to declaring total victory in mid May. Vucic was desperate for parliamentary elections on June 21 to cement his grip on power.

Now Serbia is recording around 300 new infections a day and people are questioning the government’s handling of public health. Zoran Sarac, 36, said: “ People want to say goodbye to Vucic.”

As Serbia’s curfew plans were scrapped, Ana Brnabic, Serbia’s prime minister, announced gatherings were to be limited to no more than 10 people. Still the protests continue.

Elsewhere, Albania recorded its highest number of infections, 117 on Monday. Bosnia and Herzegovina has seen big spikes in infections over the last two weeks, while Croatia and Montenegro, which recorded no new infections on many days in May and June recorded, are now back to recording pre-lockdown highs. Bulgaria has reintroduced some restrictions after several consecutive days of record confirmed infections.

Romania’s Constitutional Court last month ruled that the government no longer had the power to enforce quarantine, isolation, or hospitalisation measures, declaring such moves a “deprivation of liberty”. That not only hits the country’s weaponry to counter a resurgence, it led to hundreds of infected patients discharging themselves from hospitals.

According to an opinion poll by the Romanian Institute for Evaluation and Strategy, a third of Romanians would refuse a Covid-19 vaccination, should it be developed. That is more than twice as many as in Britain, a YouGov survey suggests.

Claudiu Tufis, an associate professor of political science at the University of Bucharest, says: “There are a lot of Romanians who do not understand how science works or trust scientific arguments based on facts.” As if to underline the point, a debate last week in the Chamber of Deputies featured various civic groups - among them, those who deny even the very existence of Covid-19.