‘Avatar 2’ Probably Won’t Match the Original’s Box Office Record – But There’s a Way (of Water)

After 13 years of waiting for the technology to catch up to his vision, James Cameron is finally ready to bring back the Na’vi with 20th Century’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” the sequel to the all-time box office king that surely isn’t going to repeat the historic run of its predecessor.

Oh, yes, it almost surely will ride its strong worldwide buzz, an 85% score on Rotten Tomatoes and over a decade of anticipation to an opening weekend of at least $150 million domestic and $400 million worldwide, according to box office trackers. With a long runway through the holiday season, it is in prime position to accumulate a global total of at least $1.5 billion and surpass “Top Gun: Maverick” as the year’s highest grossing film. But there’s no way it can match the $2.9 billion that the first “Avatar” made from its initial release in 2009 and subsequent re-releases.

…right?

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Truth is, while optimism is abundant for “Avatar: The Way of Water,” a film that like “Maverick” is a thundering declaration for the unique, irreplicable experience of the movie theater, it’s impossible to say just how far this movie will truly go. Disney/20th Century said in its pre-release notes that outside of China, where “Avatar 2” is getting a rare release but around a quarter of the nation’s theaters are closed due to COVID restrictions, the film will surpass “Avengers: Endgame” as the widest theatrical footprint for a Disney release.

That includes over 12,000 screens in 4,100 theaters in the U.S. and Canada, with over 4,600 of those screens being in 3D, the format that Cameron has pushed as the definitive way to watch “Avatar.” In fact, 75% of the premium format screens in the United States will screen the film in 3D this weekend.

That promotion of the 3D experience, the largest since “Avatar” initially kicked off a fad in Hollywood that has long since faded, will provide “The Way of Water” with plenty of extra revenue from premium surcharges. It also heads into the holiday season with no serious competition in its way, as none of its Christmas competition, including Universal/DreamWorks’ “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” is currently projected to earn more than a $25 million opening next weekend.

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Overseas, the aforementioned China release will give “Avatar 2” access to a market that, possibly more than any other, is hyped for this sequel. On Chinese film site Maoyan, the number of users who have added the film to their “Want to See” list has reached 1.43 million, the second highest count in the history of the site behind only “Avengers: Endgame” with 1.84 million.

The question is whether that hype will clash against COVID-19 concerns or if, like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” in America last year, it will thrive despite the virus’ spread. Facing public pressure, the Chinese government has loosened its zero-COVID policies, leading to rapid surges in positive cases. Of all the theaters in China, 73% have reopened but still face capacity restrictions.

On the one hand, those capacity restrictions and pandemic fears will limit the number of tickets sold. But if buzz for the film stays strong, that only means that the number of tickets bought by people seeing the film for the first time will be spread out over a longer period of time. If “Avatar: The Way of Water” is also allowed to continue playing in theaters during the Lunar New Year period (mid-late January), a time when the Chinese government heavily promotes locally made films, then the grosses could rise even higher.

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In the United States, rising COVID and flu cases haven’t damaged the box office, but the poor word-of-mouth for current releases certainly has. A terrible Thanksgiving weekend has left “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” as the only significant money maker as theaters wait for Cameron to bring audiences back.

That will definitely happen this weekend as “The Way of Water” is expected to at least double the $77 million opening of its predecessor, and its status as a truly unique big screen experience should keep the numbers high through New Year’s weekend and propel it past $450 million domestic.

But there’s a big gap between $450 million and the $785 million lifetime domestic total of the first “Avatar.” As noted in our Monday box office column, whether or not “The Way of Water” bridges that gap and puts “Avatar” in a position to become the next multibillion dollar film franchise comes down to whether audiences not only embrace the film as a spectacle they want to see in theaters multiple times, but also get invested in Cameron’s story of Jake Sully fighting to protect his family while his teenage children search for their place in this alien world.

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After its December 2009 opening, the original “Avatar” was able to post strong box office numbers well into February because the novelty of Pandora was still fresh. We saw with “Top Gun: Maverick” earlier this year how a film could still achieve those incredible legs if it wins the hearts of millions, and that’s what “The Way of Water” will have to replicate to reach box office heights of $2 billion or higher.

And there isn’t an unlimited amount of time. In mid-February, Disney will release the Marvel film “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” a movie that will pull away 3D and premium format support from “Avatar 2.” It’s possible that “The Way of Water” may be able to hold on to some 3D screens even with the fellow Disney blockbuster competing for space, but it’s also possible that repeat viewings will drop off once 3D is no longer an option in all markets. Not that this will be a problem for Disney, as they will be swapping out one No. 1 film for another.