Analysis suggests Perikatan has chance to win Pulai, Simpang Jeram by-elections if voter turnout same as Johor state polls

Malay Mail
Malay Mail

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 5 — Think tank Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research has suggested today that Perikatan Nasional (PN) has a chance to win the Pulai parliamentary and Simpang Jeram state by-elections if the voter turnout is the same as the Johor state election.

Its data analyst Azlan Musyabri said that the significant drop in the votes for the Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the Johor state election was due to the very low turnout rate among ethnic Chinese voters, which was only 35.7 per cent in Simpang Jeram and 38.3 per cent in both state assemblies in Pulai.

“If the voter turnout trend is the same as the Johor state election, and the vote transferability of the Barisan Nasional (BN) is only 30 per cent, then PN could win Pulai with a majority of 2,979 votes and Simpang Jeram with a slim majority of 26 votes,” he said in a report.

However, Azlan said that this scenario could change drastically if there is at least a 5 per cent increase in voter turnout among ethnic Chinese and Indian voters, and also an increase in the transfer rate of BN votes to the PH-BN government coalition above 30 per cent.

“This would mean that PH could retain the Simpang Jeram state assembly and the Pulai parliamentary constituency,” he said.

He also said that the results of the by-elections would be a good indicator of the strength of the PH-BN government coalition and the level of support for the PN.

“The voters in the Pulai parliamentary and the Simpang Jeram state assembly have a responsibility to choose a leader who will represent their voice in the assembly of the people and the state,” he said.

In Simpang Jeram, during the Johor state election, PH garnered 8,749 votes, BN secured 6,062 votes, PN received 6,350 votes, and Parti Pejuang Tanahair trailed with just 280 votes. In the 15th General Election, PH substantially increased its vote tally to 13,982, while BN maintained 6,795 votes, PN received 8,083 votes, and Bebas trailed with 941 votes.

Whereas in Pulai, PH obtained 27,033 votes, BN narrowly edged ahead with 27,200 votes, PN secured 16,865 votes, and Pejuang lagged with 2,267 votes. In the last general election, PH dominated with 64,900.

The Pulai parliamentary and Simpang Jeram state by-elections are being held following the death of their incumbent Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub who was also the minister of domestic trade and cost of living on July 23.

However, there is no early voting for the Simpang Jeram state seat.

The EC has set polling day for both by-elections on September 9 which is this Saturday.