7 crimes Trump could get away with in a second term
The July 1 Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity basically says the US president can’t face criminal prosecution for anything he does while in office, as long as it’s related to official duties. The 6-3 decision, powered by the court's conservative majority, may be the closest the United States has ever come to imbuing the president with kinglike powers.
The case arose from the federal prosecution of former President Donald Trump and his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the US Capitol. The high court’s opinion won’t kill the case against Trump, but it will winnow its scope and delay the proceedings well into 2025. If Trump wins this year’s presidential race, the historic ruling almost certainly gives Trump the cover to call off federal prosecutions of himself once he takes office.
The ruling also gives Trump and any other future (or current!) president astounding leeway to misbehave with no legal consequences. Trump already stretched the boundaries of legality during his first term in office, which provides important clues about what Trump might try to get away with in a second term while wearing the Supreme Court’s new immunity cloak.
Here are seven crimes Trump would likely get away with if he tried.
Offering bribes
Some legal analysts argue that Trump’s effort to withhold US funding for Ukraine in 2019 until its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, provided political dirt on Joe Biden was akin to bribery. Under the court’s new ruling, it wouldn’t matter. Trump could buy off anybody as long as he could somehow link it to a presidential duty.
Accepting bribes
Critics also accuse Trump of accepting bribes during his first term by, among other things, reaping a windfall from foreign governments spending millions at his hotels and other commercial properties to curry favor. In a second term, Trump could steer almost anybody with business before the federal government to his resorts, banquet halls, and golf courses and practically advertise from the Oval Office. He’d be untouchable. Trump and his family have a new business deal in Saudi Arabia and extensive ties in the uber-rich Arab world. If Trump plays his cards right, he could end up nearly as rich as Vladimir Putin.
Selling influence
In June, the watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington filed a complaint with the Justice Department. It urged a corruption inquiry into the Trump presidential campaign after Trump reportedly asked oil and gas executives for $1 billion in campaign funding in exchange for friendly policies in a second Trump term. That kind of quid pro quo might be dicey as a candidate, but once he became president, Trump could sell favored policies to the highest bidder. They might even be able to put the money directly into Trump’s pocket, provided it affects some government policy somewhere.
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Extortion
This was another alleged crime Trump committed in the 2019 shakedown of Zelensky, which led to his first impeachment in 2020. Extort to your heart’s content, says the court.
Obstructing justice
In his 2019 report on Russian interference in the 2016 election, former FBI director Robert Mueller highlighted at least 10 instances where Trump may have obstructed justice by intimidating possible witnesses, stonewalling investigators, and trying to derail the whole inquiry. Perfectly acceptable, from now on.
Manipulating financial markets
During his first term, Trump frequently posted tweets and made other public pronouncements that moved stocks and other tradeable assets. Sometimes he attacked a particular company, suggesting it might face withering legal scrutiny; other times he issued updates on his trade war that sent stocks up or down. In a second term, Trump could actually profit from such moves by buying or selling affected assets in advance, as long as his market-moving news related to something he had to deal with as president.
Use private email to avoid transparency
The FBI investigated Hillary Clinton for doing it as secretary of state, and it caused her a heap of trouble. If Trump did it as president, there’d be no investigation, and Trump could hide his secrets forever.
This list, as they say, is not exhaustive. Trump is a creative rule-breaker, and he’d probably find new ways to break the law during a second term. What if he canceled the next presidential election so he could stay in office in perpetuity? Would his immunity cloak expire on Jan. 20, 2029? Or would it only expire when Trump decided he didn’t want to be president anymore? Could he pass the immunity cloak on to one of his kids if he decided to appoint them the next president in lieu of an election?
There are a few ground rules Trump and his advisers probably need to keep in mind. First, the kingification of the president doesn't only apply to Trump, it applies to every president from here on out— including Joe Biden. So Biden could enter dark mode and do something to shiv Trump before Trump ever makes it to criminal nirvana.
Impeachment and conviction also remain an option since the court ruling doesn't do anything to change Congress's role. Trump probably doesn't have to worry about that, though, given that half of Congress will probably be lined up to cash in on all the new moneymaking opportunities if there's another Trump regime.
In its ruling, the court said immunity applies without exception to “core” presidential powers, and it probably applies to acts “within the outer perimeter” of official duties. But the court didn’t define what core powers are, or what the outer perimeter is. That will take further legal action.
The ruling does not give immunity for “unofficial” acts, but it does cast a wide umbrella over personal business by saying that if there’s a link with official business, then the official standing prevails. So if Elon Musk gives Trump $1 billion to write an environmental standard that only Tesla automobiles could comply with, it would be fine, since it would be a federal regulatory matter.
Trump’s harshest critics bemoan the possibility that President Trump 2.0 could order the assassination of political rivals and suffer no consequences. But his henchmen could take the fall, since the immunity cloak applies only to the president. So if Trump ordered SEAL Team 6 to assassinate federal prosecutor Jack Smith or Fulton County, Ga., district attorney Fani Willis, the SEALs could face prosecution for carrying out an unlawful order, or just plain murder. Trump might have to make the hit himself.
Of course, he could pardon anybody doing his dirty work who ends up getting prosecuted. Or order his Justice Department not to prosecute in the first place.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.
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