2025 Oscars Best Original Screenplay Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Best Original Screenplay Commentary (Updated Jan. 21, 2024): Jesse Eisenberg’s heartfelt screenplay for “A Real Pain” continues to make waves this awards season. The film scored a key victory at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) Awards. With his co-star Kieran Culkin also leading the charge in supporting actor trophies from critics, the film is becoming a real dark horse for several categories.

Set against the backdrop of Jewish heritage and identity, “A Real Pain” tells the story of two cousins (played by Eisenberg and Culkin) who travel to Poland to connect with their roots.

LAFCA’s screenplay award is often a precursor to Oscar success. Five LAFCA winners have claimed Academy Awards in the past decade, with notable examples including Jordan Peele’s genre-defining “Get Out” and Emerald Fennell’s darkly-sharp “Promising Young Woman.” However, the road from LAFCA to Oscar gold isn’t always a guarantee — last year’s winner, “All of Us Strangers,” also from Searchlight Pictures, failed to secure even a nomination. In addition to the LAFCA honor, “A Real Pain” has made a significant mark on the Golden Globes race, racking up four major nominations, including best picture and screenplay.

While “A Real Pain” is doing well in the awards-season conversation, it’s far from the only contender vying for screenplay honors. Sean Baker’s “Anora” has emerged as a critical darling after winning the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) award for screenplay and winning big at LAFCA with best film.

Meanwhile, Azazel Jacobs’ “His Three Daughters” has quietly built its case for recognition. The familial drama, which delves into the strained relationships of three sisters as they care for their dying father, won the Gotham for screenplay. Jacobs’ deft exploration of grief and sibling dynamics has resonated with audiences and could be an under-the-radar contender that could surprise.

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Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

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Eligible Writers (Best Original Screenplay)

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More Information (Oscars: Original Screenplay)

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

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