2024 Emmys Lead Actress Drama Predictions
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 6, 2024): The drama actress category is ablaze with star power, featuring 67 remarkable contenders. Among them are Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon from Apple’s “The Morning Show,” both vying for a joint nomination for the first time—Aniston for the first season and Witherspoon for the second. They face competition from rising stars like Anna Sawai (“Shōgun”), Jess Hong (“3 Body Problem”), and Ella Purnell (“Fallout”).
Sawai, who shines as the dedicated translator Toda Mariko in FX’s Japanese epic, is an undeniable frontrunner, especially with her stellar performance in episode nine. Sawai also has a bid for Apple’s sci-fi action series “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters,” but this dual submission won’t split the vote. Missing out would be an egregious snub; a win would make her the first Asian lead drama actress to triumph in 76 years.
Emma Stone, fresh off her second lead actress Oscar win for Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things,” is eyeing her first Emmy nod for the satirical thriller “The Curse.” As Whitney, the co-host of a show about eco-friendly homes, Stone has been on a roll, also contending for a guest comedy actress nod for her hilarious stint on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live.” Winning in either category would make her the third woman to clinch both acting Oscars and Emmys in the same year, a rare feat previously achieved by Helen Hunt in 1997 and Helen Mirren in 2006.
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 to June 24. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will be held on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank | Performer and Series |
|---|---|
1 | Anna Sawai — “Shōgun” (FX) |
2 | Jennifer Aniston –“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) |
3 | Emma Stone — “The Curse” (Showtime) |
4 | Imelda Staunton — “The Crown” (Netflix) |
5 | Reese Witherspoon –“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) |
6 | Carrie Coon — “The Gilded Age” (Max) |
Next in Line
Rank | Performer and Series |
|---|---|
7 | Ella Purnell — “Fallout” (Prime Video) |
8 | Maya Erskine — “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video) |
9 | Mariska Hargitay — “Law and Order: SVU” (NBC) |
10 | Carrie Preston — “Elsbeth” (CBS) |
11 | Rosario Dawson — “Ahsoka” (Disney+) |
12 | Jess Hong — “3 Body Problem” (Netflix) |
13 | Danai Gurira — “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC) |
14 | Rebecca Ferguson — “Silo” (Apple TV+) |
15 | Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Justified: City Primeval” (FX) |
Also in Contention
Rank | Performer and Series |
|---|---|
16 | Juliette Binoche — “The New Look” (Apple TV+) |
17 | Rosamund Pike — “The Wheel of Time” (Prime Video) |
18 | Angela Bassett — “9-1-1” (ABC) |
19 | Zoe Saldaña — “Special Ops: Lioness” (Paramount+) |
20 | Caitríona Balfe — “Outlander” (Starz) |
21 | Sonequa Martin-Green — “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+) |
22 | Rachel Keller — “Tokyo Vice” (Max) |
23 | Tammy Townsend — “Average Joe” (BET+) |
24 | Queen Latifah — “The Equalizer” (CBS) |
25 | Ellen Pompeo — “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC) |
Eligible Performances (Lead Drama Actress)
**Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
Freya Allan — “The Witcher” (Netflix)
Jennifer Aniston — “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Clarke Backo — “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
Caitríona Balfe — “Outlander” (Starz)
Angela Bassett — “9-1-1” (ABC)
Caitlin Bassett — “Quantum Leap”
Violett Beane — “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
Melissa Benoist — “The Girls on the Bus” (Max)
Juliette Binoche — “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
Alisha Boe — “The Buccaneers” (Apple TV+)
Alexandra Breckenridge — “Virgin River”
Anya Chalotra — “The Witcher” (Netflix)
Lauren Cohan — “The Walking Dead: Dead City”
Carrie Coon — “The Gilded Age” (Max)
Rosario Dawson — “Ahsoka” (Disney+)
Dianne Doan — “Warrior” (Max)
Roma Downey — “The Baxters” (Prime Video)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
Maya Erskine — “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Rebecca Ferguson — “Silo” (Apple TV+)
Kristine Frøseth — “The Buccaneers” (Apple TV+)
Hani Furstenberg — “The Green Veil” (The Network)
Danai Gurira — “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC)
Shanola Hampton — “Found” (NBC)
Mariska Hargitay — “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” (NBC)
Maahra Hill — “The Irrational” (NBC)
Jess Hong — “3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
Mia Isaac — “Black Cake” (Hulu)
Rachel Keller — “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
Kirby — “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
Morgan Kohan — “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
Queen Latifah — “The Equalizer” (CBS)
Katrina Law — “NCIS” (CBS)
Alyvia Alyn Lind — “Chucky” (Syfy)
Madison Lintz — “Bosch: Legacy”
Danielle Macdonald — “The Tourist” (Max)
Krys Marshall — “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
Sonequa Martin-Green — “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+)
Patina Miller — “Power Book III: Raising Kenan” (Starz)
Simone Missick — “All Rise”
Vanessa Morgan — “Wild Cards”
Missy Peregrym — “FBI” (NBC)
Rosamund Pike — “The Wheel of Time” (Prime Video)
Ellen Pompeo — “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC)
Carrie Preston — “Elsbeth” (CBS)
Ella Purnell — “Fallout” (Prime Video)
Monica Raymond — “Hightown”
Hadley Robinson — “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
Mimi Rogers — “Bosch: Legacy”
Melissa Roxburgh — “Manifest”
Zoe Saldaña — “Special Ops: Lioness” (Paramount+)
Anna Sawai — “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (Apple TV+)
Anna Sawai — “Shōgun”
Wrenn Schmidt — “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
Shaquita R Smith — “Wicked City”
Imelda Staunton — “The Crown” (Netflix)
Maria Sten — “Reacher”
Emma Stone — “The Curse” (Showtime)
Lili Taylor — “Outer Range” (Prime Video)
Maura Tierney — “American Rust: Broken Justice”
Emily Tosta — “Mayans M.C.” (FX)
Tammy Townsend — “Average Joe” (BET+)
Lola Tung — “The Summer I Turned Pretty”
Perdita Weeks — “Magnum P.I.”
Michole Briana White — “BMF”
Ruth Wilson — “The Woman in the Wall” (Showtime)
Reese Witherspoon — “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
More Information (Lead Drama Actress)
2023 category winner: Sarah Snook as Shiv Roy — “Succession” (HBO) — Season 4
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
Feb. 29: Submissions open
May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
August 15: Final-round voting begins.
August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
Drama | Comedy | Limited/Movie |
|---|---|---|
Documentary (Series, Special, Hosted Nonfiction, Exceptional Merit) |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
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