2024 Emmys Lead Actor Drama Predictions
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 13, 2024): Thanks to the lead drama actor’s 81 submissions, which barely cleared the required threshold, we will have six nominees in the category (and for lead drama actress).
Among the contenders this year are the two “Shōgun” leading men, Cosmo Jarvis and Hiroyuki Sanada, with Tom Hiddleston from Disney’s “Loki” and Donald Glover from “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.” Even a few longshots are throwing their hats in the ring, like John Leguizamo from The Network’s “The Green Veil,” after writing an open letter to Emmy voters via a full-page ad in the New York Times last weekend (also helps the show was just renewed).
The show’s first season, set in the 1950s, has Leguizamo playing a brutal FBI agent “tasked with an unraveling secret mission that threatens to expose deeper secrets.” It’s one of the finest performances of his career yet.
Jarvis and Sanada are poised for lead drama actor nominations, injecting fresh energy into a category that was begging for excitement, with pundits divided between Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) and Dominic West (“The Crown”), both of whom have never received nods for their roles. Sanada could make history, becoming the second Asian actor nominated after Lee Jung-Jae, who won for “Squid Game” in 2022.
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will take place over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank | Series |
|---|---|
1 | Hiroyuki Sanada — “Shōgun” (FX) |
2 | Cosmo Jarvis — “Shōgun” (FX) |
3 | Walton Goggins — “Fallout” (Prime Video) |
4 | Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+) |
5 | Dominic West — “The Crown” (Netflix) |
6 | Morgan Spector — “The Gilded Age” (Max) |
Next in Line
Rank | Series |
|---|---|
7 | Tom Hiddleston — “Loki” (Disney+) |
8 | Donald Glover — “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video) |
9 | Colin Farrell — “Sugar” (Apple TV+) |
10 | John Leguizamo — “The Green Veil” (The Network) |
Also In Contention
Rank | Series |
|---|---|
11 | John C. Reilly — “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max) |
12 | Adrien Brody — “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max) |
13 | Timothy Olyphant — “Justified: City Primeval” (FX) |
14 | Paul Giamatti — “Billions” (Showtime) |
15 | Giancarlo Esposito — “Parish” (AMC) |
16 | Idris Elba — “Hijack” (Apple TV+) |
17 | Josh Brolin — “Outer Range” (Prime Video) |
18 | Damian Lewis — “Billions” (Showtime) |
19 | Ken Watanabe — “Tokyo Vice” (Max) |
20 | Ramón Rodríguez — “Will Trent” (ABC) |
Eligible Performers (Lead Drama Actor)
**Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
David Ajala — “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+)
Björgvin Arnarson — “Chucky” (Syfy)
Zackary Arthur — “Chucky” (Syfy)
Jason Beghe — “Chicago P.D.” (NBC)
Adrien Brody — “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
Josh Brolin — “Outer Range” (Prime Video)
Santiago Cabrera — “The Cleaning Lady” (Fox)
Deon Cole — “Average Joe” (BET+)
Gordon Cormier — “Avatar: The Last Airbender” (Netflix)
MeKai Curtis — “Power Book III: Raising Kenan” (Starz)
James Badge Dale — “Hightown”
Josh Dallas — “Manifest”
Hugh Dancy — “Law & Order” (NBC)
Michael Dorman — “Joe Pickett”
Jamie Dornan — “The Tourist” (Max)
Idris Elba — “Hijack” (Apple TV+)
Ansel Elgort — “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
Giancarlo Esposito — “Parish” (AMC)
Colin Farrell — “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
Nathan Felder — “The Curse” (Showtime)
Nathan Fillion — “The Rookie” (ABC)
Demetrius Flenory Jr. — “BMF”
Manuel Garcia-Rulfo — “The Lincoln Lawyer” (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti — “Billions” Showtime)
Donald Glover — “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins — “Fallout” (Prime Video)
Daniel Henney — “The Wheel of Time” (Prime Video)
Jay Hernandez — “Magnum P.I.”
Sam Heughan — “Outlander” (Starz)
Tom Hiddleston — “Loki” (Disney+)
Freddie Highmore — “The Good Doctor” (ABC)
Isaiah Hill — “Swagger” (Apple TV+)
Quincy Isaiah — “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
O’Shea Jackson Jr. — “Swagger” (Apple TV+)
Cosmo Jarvis — “Shōgun” (FX)
Joel Kinnaman — “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
Taylor Kinney — “Chicago Fire” (NBC)
Luke Kleintank — “FBI: International” (NBC)
Andrew Koji — “Warrior” (Max)
John Krasinski — “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan” (Prime Video)
Peter Krause — “9-1-1” (ABC)
Raymond Lee — “Quantum Leap” (NBC)
John Leguizamo — “The Green Veil” (The Network)
Damian Lewis — “Billions” (Showtime)
Andrew Lincoln — “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC)
Eoin Macken — “La Brea” (NBC)
Jesse L. Martin — “The Irrational” (NBC)
James McArdle — “Sexy Beast”
Zahn McClarnon — “Dark Winds” (AMC)
Dylan McDermott — “FBI: Most Wanted”
Ted McGinley — “The Baxters”
Christopher Meloni — “Law & Order: Organized Crime”
Ben Mendelsohn — “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
Shemar Moore — “S.W.A.T.”
Jeffrey Dean Morgan — “The Walking Dead: Dead City” (AMC)
Anson Mount — “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)
Chad Michael Murray — “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Babs Olusanmokun — “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)
Timothy Olyphant — “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
Lee Pace — “Foundation” (Paramount+)
Mandy Patinkin — “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
Scott Patterson — “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
Norman Reedus — “The Walking Dead: Daryl Dixon” (AMC)
John C. Reilly — “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
George Rexstrew — “Dead Boy Detectives” (Netflix)
Alan Ritchson — “Reacher” (Prime Video)
Ramón Rodríguez — “Will Trent” (ABC)
Kurt Russell — “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (Apple TV+)
Hiroyuki Sanada — “Shōgun” (FX)
Pablo Schreiber — “Halo” (Paramount+)
Tom Selleck — “Blue Bloods” (CBS)
Joseph Sikora — “Power Book IV: Force” (Starz)
Morgan Spector — “The Gilded Age” (Max)
Lakeith Stanfield — “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
Corey Stoll — “Billions” (Showtime)
Wilmer Valderrama — “NCIS” (CBS)
Ken Watanabe — “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
Titus Welliver — “Bosch: Legacy” (Freevee)
Dominic West — “The Crown” (Netflix)
Zeeko Zaki — “FBI” (NBC)
More Information (Lead Drama Actor)
2023 category winner: Kieran Culkin as Roman Roy — “Succession” (HBO) — Season 4
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
Feb. 29: Submissions open
May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
August 15: Final-round voting begins.
August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
Drama | Comedy | Limited/Movie |
|---|---|---|
Documentary (Series, Special, Hosted Nonfiction, Exceptional Merit) |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
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