$10K Proving a Tough Nut to Crack for Bitcoin’s Bulls

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  • Bitcoin’s immediate outlook remains neutral, with a lower-highs setup on four-hour charts still intact.

  • A sustained break above $10,028 would invalidate that pattern and revive the bullish view, opening the doors for resistance at $10,300 and $10,500.

  • On the downside, key average support at $9,508 is the target for the bears. A violation there would likely bring a deeper drop to $9,075 (Feb. 4 low).

Bitcoin retreated after crossing into five figures early on Monday, establishing the psychological level of $10,000 as the resistance to beat for the bulls.

After briefly touching $10,008 at 01:30 UTC, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index, the cryptocurrency had fallen back to $9,620 by 03:00.

Bitcoin (BTC) has now failed twice in the last 24 hours to find takers above $10,000. Another attempt during Sunday’s early U.S. trading hours also saw prices print a high just above $10,000 only to plunge quickly to $9,850.

Related: Bitcoin Faces Further Losses if Bulls Can’t Disrupt Bearish Chart Pattern

The failures have poured cold water over the optimism generated by the move higher seen over the weekend. Bitcoin remained resilient around $9,650 on Friday, despite a bearish turn by the money flow index, and rose to five figures on Sunday.

Importantly, with the rejection at $10,000, bitcoin has logged another bearish lower high on the technical charts – one of a succession since the recent rally stalled at $10,500 on Feb. 13.

Invalidation of the lower highs setup is needed to revive the immediate bullish case. As a result, the high around $10,000 observed during Monday’s Asia hours is the level to beat for the bulls.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $9,750 on Bitstamp. Meanwhile, its global average price as calculated by the Bitcoin Price Index is $9,765, down 1.38 percent over 24 hours.

4-hour chart

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Bitcoin has printed three lower highs (marked by arrows) on the four-hour chart over the last 10 days, the latest being $10,028 (as per Bitstamp prices).

A high-volume move above that level would imply a continuation of the broader uptrend from January lows below $7,000 and open the doors for a re-test of the Feb. 13 high of $10,500.

However, at press time, bitcoin is looking south, with the trendline rising from Feb. 19 lows now breached to the downside. So a drop to the 200-candle average at $9,508 cannot be ruled out.

Acceptance under that technical line, which acted as strong support last week, could bring a deeper slide toward the higher low of $9,075. (Feb. 4 low).

Weekly chart

Bitcoin produced a doji candle last week, as prices swung both ways in the range of $10,300 to $9,300 before closing out on a flat note. The pattern appeared after a notable price rally and is indicative of indecision among buyers.

A strong move above $10,300 would imply bull confidence has returned and would likely yield a stronger move toward $11,000.

Failing that, though, a sell-off to below $9,300 would confirm a bearish doji reversal pattern.

The odds of a move above $10,300 would rise if the lower-highs setup on the four-hour chart is invalidated with strong volumes.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing

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